transparency · the panel in full

Rater panel

Every published position is the median of a rater panel (see methodology §5). This page shows the panel with nothing hidden: for each cell where two or more raters scored, where each rater landed on the −10…+10 scale, the synthesised median, and the reasoning behind each score. Contested cells — where raters diverge sharply — are surfaced first.

Showing the 120 least-settled of 148 cells. Pick a country to see every one. Single-rater cells (priors awaiting a second rater) are left out; they carry one score and appear on each entity's own page.

published median r2 panel rater r1 "before" (no definitions, excluded) priormodelre-coder

• Religious Zionism Party IL Regional stance provisional ↔ 14 pt +4.0
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally maximalist and skeptical of compromise.
  • model Gemini -3.0 Prioritizes territorial expansion and maximalist security over regional diplomatic normalization agreements.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Hardline on Palestinians but pragmatic on some regional relations; Abraham Accords supporter.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Religious Zionism broadly accepts the normalization framework but is unilateralist about annexation; mild positive.
  • model Claude +4.0 Maximalist toward Palestinians while accepting Arab-state normalization.
  • model Grok +5.0 Hawkish against resistance; supports normalization if it advances Jewish control.
  • model GPT +6.0 It backs anti-Iran normalization when useful but rejects territorial concessions.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-normalization.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Extreme hawkish posture and absolute rejection of the resistance axis.

  before · r1 grok -7.0gemini -6.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• National Wisdom Movement IQ Sectarian power-sharing provisional ↔ 14 pt -5.0
  • model Gemma -8.0 Beneficiary and practitioner of the muhasasa quota system.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Al-Hikma operates within and relies upon the muhasasa sectarian power-sharing system to maintain political influence.
  • model Grok -7.0 As a key Shia party, Hikma strongly supports the muhasasa sectarian power-sharing system that guarantees Shia political dominance in Baghdad institutions.
  • prior Author baseline -7.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Supports Iraq's consociational muhasasa system that allocates power by sect.
  • model GPT -5.0 It remains rooted in Shia quota politics despite civic and cross-sectarian rhetoric.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Hakim rhetorically opposes sectarianism but movement remains rooted in Shia identity and Coordination Framework
  • model Claude -2.0 Operates within the Shia quota system while voicing cross-sectarian, national rhetoric.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Hikma rhetorically promotes a post-sectarian Iraqi identity but operates within the muhasasa framework and represents a Shia constituency.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Explicitly advocates for moving beyond the muhasasa sectarian quota system to a civic democratic state.
• Islamic Asalah Society BH Regional stance provisional ↔ 13 pt +4.0
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Opposes normalization and critical of Iran
  • model Gemini -4.0 Fiercely opposes normalization with Israel, though it remains firmly anti-Iran and pro-Gulf stability.
  • model Claude -1.0 Firmly anti-Iran yet ideologically opposed to Israel normalization despite loyalty to a normalizing government.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Maintains a pro-Palestinian stance while remaining within the Gulf state's diplomatic framework.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +4.0 Despite anti-Israel sentiment, it is aligned with the Bahraini pro-regime camp rather than the Iran-led resistance axis.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Aligned with Gulf stability camp and Bahrain's pro-Western strategic orientation.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Aligned with the Gulf stability camp
  • model Grok +7.0 Quietist Salafi orientation aligned with Saudi-influenced stability politics, anti-Iranian, and supportive of the regime's pro-normalization and Western security partnerships in the Gulf.
  • model Qwen +8.0 It is strongly anti-Iran and fully supports the Gulf status quo and normalization efforts.
• Nour Party EG West alignment provisional ↔ 13 pt -3.0
  • model DeepSeek -7.0 Strongly anti-Western; opposes strategic alignment with US.
  • model Gemini -6.0 It holds an ideologically hostile view toward Western political, military, and cultural influence in the region.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Ideologically hostile to Western strategic alignment.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Anti-Western in alignment; culturally and politically skeptical of US/EU.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Culturally anti-Western, though strategically aligned with the West against Iran.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Anti-Western culturally and politically; critical of Western values and policies, though pragmatically quietist under Sisi.
  • model Claude -2.0 Culturally anti-Western though pragmatic in practice.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is ideologically anti-Western but pragmatically aligned with the Egyptian state's Western ties.
  • model Grok +6.0 Regime-supporting party inherits and sustains Egypt's strategic Western military and economic alignment under Sisi.
• Long Live Tunisia TN Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 12 pt -2.5
  • model Gemini -7.0 The party's platform focuses on Tunisian particularist nationalism and rejects pan-Arab integration.
  • model Grok -6.0 Tahya Tounes prioritizes Tunisian sovereignty, economic partnerships, and internal reform over pan-Arab ideological projects.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Primarily focused on Tunisian national and state-level politics.
  • model Claude -3.0 Tunisia-first particularist orientation.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Destourian heritage emphasizes Tunisian nation-state over pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model GPT -1.0 Its frame is mainly Tunisian centrist-national rather than pan-Arab.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Predominantly particularist Tunisian-national framing with light Arab-solidarity rhetoric.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Uses pan-Arab rhetoric selectively but focuses on Tunisian sovereignty above all.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 Clearly pan-Arabist in orientation.
• Democratic National Rally DZ State & religion provisional ↔ 12 pt +1.0
  • model Gemini -5.0 The RND supports the constitutional status of Islam as the state religion and opposes secular separation.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Accepts religious authority in state though not Islamist.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports the constitutional role of Islam as the state religion.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Accepts Islam’s role in public life but not full theocracy.
  • model Claude +1.0 Secular-leaning establishment but accepts Islam's constitutional state role.
  • model GPT +1.0 It favors Algeria's nationalist state framework with Islam recognized but not clerical rule.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 RND is nominally secular
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +3.0 Supports secular state institutions with Islam as official religion but state-controlled religious affairs.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 RND is firmly secular and opposes religious parties inserting sharia into state and law.
• Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 12 pt +1.5
  • model Gemini -8.0 Focuses primarily on Shia community-specific issues and maintains close religious ties with Iran rather than pan-Arabism.
  • model Grok -5.0 Primarily frames its struggle around Shia community rights, democratic reform in Bahrain, and Islamic principles rather than classic pan-Arab nationalist solidarity transcending sectarian lines.
  • model Claude -3.0 Organized around Shia community grievances, a particularist sectarian frame rather than pan-Arabism.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 Its rhetoric includes Arab and Islamic solidarity, but its core politics are Bahraini Shia opposition demands.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Frames politics in both pan-Islamic and Bahraini-national terms with modest pan-Arab elements.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Balances Shia transnational identity with Arab-Islamic solidarity.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Primarily Shi'a communal focus but with some pan-Arab solidarity rhetoric.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Advocates for Arab solidarity but primarily framed around Shia political rights in Bahrain.
  • model Qwen +4.0 It draws on broader Arab and Islamic solidarity, particularly with regional Shia movements.
• PFLP PS Iran posture provisional ↔ 12 pt +4.0
  • model Qwen -4.0 Secular Arab nationalist roots make it historically skeptical of theocratic Iranian influence.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 PFLP is a secular Marxist-Leninist party historically skeptical of Iran's Islamist theocracy
  • model Kimi +2.0 PFLP has received some Iranian support and coordinates with resistance axis, but as a secular Marxist group it has ideological tensions with the Islamic Republic; it is pragmatically aligned but not ideologically committed.
  • model Grok +3.0 PFLP has developed pragmatic tactical ties with Iran for arms and funding in recent years while remaining ideologically secular and distinct from the theocratic axis.
  • model GPT +4.0 It cooperates tactically with Iran-aligned resistance networks while retaining secular leftist independence.
  • model Claude +5.0 Secular Marxist but pragmatically aligned with the Iran-Syria resistance axis.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Aligned with Iran through shared anti-imperialist and resistance goals.
  • prior Author baseline +7.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Maintains a strategic alliance with Iran as part of the regional anti-imperialist axis.
• Tunisian Workers Party TN Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 12 pt +4.0
  • model Grok -6.0 The party participates in elections tactically but explicitly criticizes liberal democracy as inadequate and calls for its revolutionary replacement by working-class rule.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Hoxhaist communist tradition rejects liberal democracy in favor of authoritarian people's democracy.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Operates in democracy but critical of liberal institutions as bourgeois.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Supports democratic rights but views liberal democracy as insufficient for class struggle.
  • model Claude +4.0 Active opponent of Saied's autocracy and defender of pluralism, though its Marxist-Leninist roots cut against full liberal commitment.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Democratic-socialist; supports pluralism and independent judiciary within a workers' democracy frame.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Supports pluralist democracy as part of Popular Front coalition; critical of Saied’s autocracy.
  • model GPT +6.0 It defends democratic freedoms against authoritarianism, though within a revolutionary socialist framework.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The party supports popular democracy and robust institutional checks against executive tyranny.
• Istiqlal Party MA Regional stance provisional ↔ 12 pt +4.0
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Istiqlal officially opposed the Abraham Accords and is sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, leaning toward the anti-normalization pole despite accepting the monarchy.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Arab nationalist but not aligned with Axis of Resistance; opposes normalization rhetorically.
  • model GPT +1.0 Istiqlal is pro-Palestinian and wary of normalization but not aligned with armed resistance blocs.
  • model Claude +3.0 Pro-Palestinian rhetoric but aligns with establishment normalization as a government party.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Balances strong Pro-Palestinian rhetoric with adherence to state normalization policies.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Istiqlal supports Palestinian rights but aligns with Morocco's diplomatic stability orientation.
  • model Grok +6.0 Backs royal foreign policy prioritizing stability, normalization, and pragmatic regional partnerships over maximalist resistance positions.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Supports Morocco's diplomatic approach and regional stability initiatives.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Fully supports the state's strategic normalization with Israel and alignment with Arab Gulf states to ensure regional stability.
• National Umma Party SD Regime stance provisional ↔ 12 pt +2.5
  • model Gemma -7.0 Firmly opposes the military regime and its claim to foundational authority.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Opposition party, core member of anti-Bashir FFC coalition.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -1.0 Currently in opposition to the military regime, though historically it has both governed and been marginalized.
  • model GPT +2.0 It opposes military domination while accepting Sudan’s constitutional nation-state framework.
  • model Grok +3.0 Longstanding opposition to military Islamist rule and participation in civilian democratic transition efforts while accepting the republican state.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 NUP accepts a civilian-democratic constitutional order and has consistently opposed the Bashir Islamist-military regime and the 2021 coup.
  • model Gemini +3.0 The NUP defends the foundational republican constitutional framework while opposing its military distortion.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Accepts republican order though critical of military regimes.
  • model Claude +5.0 Committed to the constitutional/civilian-democratic order and pursues change within it rather than overturning the state.
• Justice and Construction Party LY Regime stance provisional ↔ 12 pt +2.5
  • model Kimi -5.0 Rejects current foundational constitutional order
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Critical of post-2011 order but works within it; not fully anti-regime.
  • model Grok +1.0 Claims legitimacy from the 2011 revolutionary order and participates in its institutions when advantageous, yet has supported armed challenges to elected bodies when outcomes disfavored it.
  • model GPT +2.0 It broadly accepts the post-2011 political framework while contesting rivals within it.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Accepts and participates in the post-2011 electoral order, backing the Tripoli-based government.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Supports the post-2011 revolutionary order over the Gaddafi-era foundation.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Accepts the post-2011 republican constitutional order; previously contested the 2014 HoR outcome but does not reject the foundational order itself.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Accepts and operates within the post-2011 republican political order of Libya.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Defends the post-2011 constitutional and transitional order in Tripoli against military challenges like Haftar's offensive.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Regime stance provisional ↔ 11 pt +1.5
  • model Gemma -6.0 Opposes the current military-led foundational order in favor of a civilian democratic one.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Opposition party that boycotted rigged elections and joined anti-Bashir alliances.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Currently opposes the military junta but historically defended the existing state order when in power.
  • model GPT +1.0 It seeks a civilian democratic Sudan but generally works within the Sudanese nation-state framework.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Generally accepts the republican order but has challenged specific regimes.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 DUP accepts a civilian-democratic constitutional order and has opposed both Bashir's Islamist-military order and the 2021 coup, placing it clearly on the pro-civilian-order side.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The party is an establishment actor that operates within and defends the foundational state order.
  • model Grok +4.0 Opposes past authoritarian Islamist deviations but upholds Sudan's republican constitutional order and seeks democratic reform within it.
  • model Claude +5.0 Loyal participant in the Sudanese constitutional order, pursuing its aims through the existing state and elections.
• Islamic Asalah Society BH Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 11 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -7.0 Emphasizes sectarian Sunni loyalty to the Bahraini monarchy and local Islamic purity over pan-Arab ideological frameworks or cross-sectarian Arab solidarity movements.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Emphasizes a strict Sunni sectarian and Gulf monarchic-first identity over secular pan-Arabism.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -3.0 It prioritizes Bahraini national identity and Salafi particularism over pan-Arab political movements.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Politics framed through Islamic and Gulf monarchic solidarity rather than pan-Arab nationalism.
  • model Claude -2.0 Salafi pan-Islamic but particularist Sunni frame rather than Arab-nationalist solidarity.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Pan-Islamic rather than pan-Arab; focused on Sunni identity within Bahrain.
  • model GPT +1.0 It shows some Arab-Islamic solidarity but is primarily Bahraini Sunni and Salafi rather than pan-Arab.
  • model Kimi +2.0 More focused on global Islamic/Salafi identity than specifically pan-Arab nationalism.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Frames politics within an Arab-Islamic context.
• Hadash IL Regional stance provisional ↔ 11 pt -4.5
  • model Gemini -7.0 Aligns with anti-imperialist regional politics and opposes the Abraham Accords normalization framework.
  • model MiniMax -7.0 Hadash is anti-normalization and historically aligned with the resistance/Palestinian-liberation camp though it has softened rhetorically.
  • model Claude -6.0 Anti-imperialist, anti-normalization stance pursued through political means.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Opposes normalization and supports Palestinian rights, but not explicitly aligned with armed resistance axis.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Generally anti-normalization and aligned with anti-imperialist fronts.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Anti-normalization and sympathetic to the resistance, though not explicitly armed.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Anti-normalization but not aligned with armed resistance.
  • model GPT -3.0 Hadash is anti-occupation and anti-normalization but not an armed-resistance proxy.
  • model Grok -2.0 Opposes occupation and supports Palestinian rights; critical of normalization deals that bypass justice; peaceful not armed resistance aligned.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +2.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +4.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.

  before · r1 grok -6.0gemini +8.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Jordanian Communist Party JO Regime stance provisional ↔ 11 pt -4.0
  • model Gemma -9.0 Historically and ideologically rejects the monarchical order.
  • model Grok -8.0 Seeks to replace the monarchical constitutional order with a socialist people's republic; fundamentally anti-regime.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Anti-regime, seeks fundamental transformation of political order, historically repressed
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Anti-monarchy in principle
  • model Gemini -4.0 Rejects the foundational absolute powers of the monarchy and seeks radical constitutional restructuring.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -3.0 It is a legal opposition party but ideologically critical of Jordan’s monarchic political order.
  • model Claude -2.0 Historically anti-monarchy in principle though now operating legally within the system.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Historically anti-monarchy in ideology but has accepted constitutional participation in practice; lukewarm toward the foundational order.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Accepts the Hashemite constitutional order and operates legally within it, despite ideological differences.
• Free Destourian Party TN Traditionalism vs modernization provisional ↔ 11 pt +5.0
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Nostalgic for Bourguibist modernization model but ideologically traditionalist and statist.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Moderately modernizing
  • model Qwen +4.0 Supports state-led modernization and women’s rights within authoritarian framework, following Bourguiba model.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Supports institutional and state-led modernization.
  • model Gemini +5.0 The PDL supports social modernization, especially regarding women's rights, within a traditional state framework.
  • model Claude +6.0 Explicitly carries the Bourguibist state-modernization legacy.
  • model Kimi +7.0 Bourguibist modernizing tradition emphasizing cultural and institutional modernization.
  • model Grok +8.0 The party positions itself as heir to Bourguiba's modernization project emphasizing education, gender progress, and institutional reform against traditionalist backsliding.
• Tunisian Workers Party TN Regime stance provisional ↔ 11 pt -7.0
  • model Gemma -9.0 Revolutionary stance and strongly anti-regime.
  • model Gemini -9.0 The party vehemently opposes Kais Saied's rule, labeling it an autocratic coup.
  • model Grok -9.0 The Tunisian Workers Party maintains a consistently revolutionary anti-regime posture, rejecting both the old Ben Ali order, post-2011 parliamentary system, and Saied's presidentialism as variants of class domination.
  • model Qwen -8.0 Opposes current regime as bourgeois-authoritarian; seeks revolutionary change.
  • model MiniMax -8.0 Anti-regime across eras; opposed Ben Ali
  • model Kimi -6.0 Revolutionary communist party opposes existing bourgeois constitutional order entirely.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Anti-regime
  • model Claude -5.0 Revolutionary Marxist tradition rejecting the existing order and opposing the Saied state.
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +2.0 It opposes incumbents and neoliberal orders but generally operates within the republican state framework.
• People's Movement TN Traditionalism vs modernization provisional ↔ 11 pt +2.0
  • model Gemma -5.0 Leans toward traditionalism in social and institutional matters.
  • model Gemini +0.0 The party holds a mixed view, favoring technical modernization while remaining socially conservative.
  • model GPT +0.0 It combines modern nationalist-statist institutions with traditionalist social and sovereignty themes.
  • model Claude +1.0 Secular but state-corporatist nationalism with traditionalist undercurrents.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Supports development and social progress within nationalist framework.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Modernizing on social justice and economic development.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Modernizing on social questions but with statist-traditionalist economic heritage.
  • model Grok +5.0 The party backs modernization in the form of industrialization, technological advance, and social reform but frames it within a nationalist and anti-imperialist rather than Western-liberal paradigm.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Progressive left party supporting social and institutional modernization.
• People's Movement TN State & religion provisional ↔ 11 pt +5.0
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports a role for religion in the state and law.
  • model Gemini -2.0 While nationalist, the party integrates Islamic identity into its Arab nationalist framework, resisting total secularism.
  • model Qwen +1.0 Secular-leaning but not aggressively anti-religious; focuses on national unity.
  • model GPT +3.0 It is secular Arab-nationalist rather than Islamist, though not liberal-secular in a strong rights sense.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 Secularist
  • model Claude +5.0 Secular Arab-nationalist orientation.
  • model Grok +7.0 People's Movement advocates a strictly secular state as essential to both social progress and national unity against sectarian or Islamist projects.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Secular state; left-secular orientation.
  • model Kimi +7.0 Secular left tradition strongly supports separation of religion from state.
• National Rally of Independents MA Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 11 pt -5.5
  • model Grok -9.0 Strongly centralist; as ruling party defends unitary state structure and royal authority against any meaningful federalist devolution.
  • model Qwen -8.0 Supports the centralized unitary state structure of Morocco.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Strongly supports Morocco's unitary state structure and favors centralism over federal arrangements.
  • model Claude -6.0 Pro-palace technocratic party within the centralist state.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 RNI is part of Morocco's centralist political establishment and supports the unitary monarchical framework.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Pro-monarchy centralist; no federalist agenda.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -2.0 RNI supports administrative decentralization but not federal power-sharing.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Supports regionalization for development but remains firmly within a unitary framework.
  • model Kimi +2.0 RNI supports the centralized state with advanced regionalization as part of development policy.
• Authenticity and Modernity Party MA Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 11 pt -5.5
  • model Grok -9.0 Firmly supports Morocco's unitary centralized state under the constitutional monarchy with only limited administrative regionalization.
  • model Qwen -8.0 Strongly supports a centralized unitary state aligned with the monarchy.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Strongly supports Morocco's unitary state structure and favors centralism over federal arrangements.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Party supports monarchical centralism and has not pushed for federal or regional devolution.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 PAM is a pro-monarchy party operating within Morocco's strongly unitary framework; no meaningful push for regional power-sharing.
  • model Claude -5.0 Pro-palace modernist party operating within Morocco's strongly centralist unitary state.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Supports advanced regionalization but remains committed to a unitary state.
  • model GPT +1.0 PAM supports advanced regionalization and Amazigh recognition within Morocco’s unitary monarchy.
  • model Kimi +2.0 PAM supports the monarchy's centralized state structure with limited regionalization.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ Civil liberties provisional ↔ 11 pt -2.5
  • model Grok -6.0 Sadrist history includes militia violence and intimidation; even in political phase, supporters have pressured media and opponents, yielding a restrictive record on dissent.
  • model Gemini -6.0 The Sadrists have frequently used militia violence, intimidation, and crackdowns to suppress critics and secular protesters.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Mixed record: supports popular protest but suppresses dissent within the Sadrists.
  • model Claude -3.0 Reformist activist allies offset by the movement's militia and street intimidation.
  • model GPT -3.0 The Sadrist current has a record of coercive street power and intimidation despite anti-corruption rhetoric.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Sadr's movement has mixed record; Sadrist militias have attacked protesters and journalists, though Sadr rhetorically supports reform
  • model Qwen -2.0 Despite populist rhetoric, its affiliated militias have violently suppressed protests and restricted freedoms.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 Sadr's movement is a protest-driven movement that champions civil liberties in principle, but its own internal culture is hierarchical and Mahdi-militia-linked — middling.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 Sairoon
• Kurdistan Democratic Party IQ Palestinian question provisional ↔ 11 pt +2.5
  • model Grok -4.0 KDP focuses on Kurdish particularism and has maintained pragmatic relations with Israel, showing limited engagement with or support for strong pro-Palestinian positions.
  • model Claude -2.0 Muted on Palestinian advocacy and maintains quiet sympathetic ties with Israel, atypical for the region.
  • model Gemini +0.0 The KDP maintains a neutral, passive stance on the Palestinian question, prioritizing Kurdish national interests instead.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Rhetorically supports Palestinian rights but focuses primarily on Kurdish national interests.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 KDP rhetorically supports Palestinian rights and hosts solidarity events, but has engaged quietly with Israel (oil exports, intelligence) giving it a pragmatic streak.
  • model Kimi +3.0 KDP expresses solidarity with Palestinian rights but prioritizes Kurdish interests over active pan-Arab solidarity
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 KDP rhetorically supports Palestinians but prioritizes its own national interests and ties with Israel.
  • model GPT +6.0 It broadly supports Palestinian rights while keeping the issue secondary to Kurdish interests.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Consistently supports Palestinian self-determination and statehood.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB State & religion provisional ↔ 10 pt +2.0
  • model Qwen -5.0 FPM supports Christian religious influence in public life but not full theocracy; favors confessional balance.
  • model Grok -4.0 Preserves religious authority in personal status laws as part of consociational bargain; does not aggressively pursue strict secular separation.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports the existing system of religious authority in personal status law.
  • model Kimi -3.0 FPM accepts Lebanon's confessional system where religious authorities have significant roles; it does not advocate for full secular separation of religion and state.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Officially supports secular state but avoids confronting religious establishment.
  • model GPT +2.0 It is Christian-identitarian but generally favors a civil Lebanese state.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 FPM rhetorically favors a secular civil state
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +4.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Christian-nationalist with a relatively secular civic-state framing.
  • model Gemini +5.0 FPM's official platform advocates for a secular state and a civil personal status law.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt -0.5
  • model Qwen -6.0 FPM supports strong central state but within Lebanon’s confessional framework, opposing federalism.
  • model Grok -6.0 Under Aoun, advocated strong central presidency and unitary state; opposed federal or decentralized models that weaken national (and presidential) authority.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally favors a unitary state
  • model Gemini -2.0 FPM generally supports a central state but advocates for broad administrative and financial decentralization.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Aoun's historical vision emphasized a strong central state and military
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Originally called for a secular civil state; not federalist but not strongly centralist.
  • model Claude +1.0 Lebanese-nationalist and centralist, with periodic support for administrative decentralization.
  • model Kimi +2.0 FPM under Bassil emphasizes Christian rights and Maronite political role within the existing system; it does not push for federalism but supports decentralization and maintaining sectarian balance.
  • model GPT +2.0 FPM favors decentralization and Christian power sharing without full federalism.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Fatah PS Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model Qwen -4.0 Historically pan-Arab but now operates as a Palestinian particularist national movement.
  • model Grok -4.0 While historically invoking Arab solidarity, contemporary Fatah prioritizes Palestinian state-building and particularist national interests over pan-Arab frameworks.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Emphasizes Palestinian particularist nationalism while maintaining diplomatic solidarity with the broader Arab world.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Fatah originated with pan-Arab Nasserist ideology but has evolved into a more particularist Palestinian nationalist organization focused on state-building rather than broader Arab solidarity.
  • model Claude +1.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Palestinian-nationalist and state-first rather than pan-Arab in framing.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Fatah invokes pan-Arab framing but is largely a Palestinian-nationalist party with particularist operational focus.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Fatah has moved from pan-Arabism toward Palestinian particularism, especially post-Oslo.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Primarily focused on Palestinian national particularism while maintaining nominal Arab solidarity.
  • model GPT +3.0 It retains Arab-nationalist language while prioritizing Palestinian institutional nationalism.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model Grok -6.0 Pragmatic participation accepts current unitary framework; focuses on sectoral gains not structural federalism.
  • model Claude -3.0 Works pragmatically within the unitary state rather than seeking federalism.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Conservative Islamist; focuses on communal autonomy within Israel, not federalism.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Ra'am is Islamist but has worked within the unitary state; mildly sympathetic to communal autonomy for Arab citizens.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Focuses on pragmatic municipal and community development within a unitary state.
  • model GPT +2.0 Ra’am seeks Arab community recognition and resources rather than formal federalism.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Supports Arab minority autonomy within central state.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Supports greater autonomy for the Arab sector.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Advocates for power-sharing, localized autonomy, and fair budget allocation for the Arab sector.

  before · r1 grok -6.0gemini +0.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model Qwen -6.0 Prioritizes Egyptian national interests over pan-Arab ideology.
  • model Grok -3.0 Primarily Egyptian social-democratic focus with limited emphasis on pan-Arab political solidarity or revivalist projects.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Primarily Egyptian-focused but retains mild pan-Arab rhetoric; leans particularist.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +1.0 Civic Egyptian framing with mild Arab solidarity; not strongly pan-Arabist.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Mild pan-Arab framing but Egypt-focused and pragmatic; not core to identity.
  • model Gemini +2.0 While prioritizing the Egyptian nation-state, it maintains traditional solidarity with Arab causes.
  • model GPT +3.0 It uses Egyptian civic-democratic framing but remains sympathetic to Arab solidarity.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Moderate pan-Arab solidarity with pragmatic focus on Egyptian national interests and regional stability.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Maintains a positive view of Arab solidarity though focused on democratic reform.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt -4.5
  • model Gemini -8.0 The Sadrist Movement is strongly centralist, opposing federalism or regional autonomy that could fragment the Iraqi state.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly advocates for a more centralist state and reduced KRG autonomy.
  • model Grok -7.0 Sairoon/Sadrist movement has consistently opposed expanding federalism, advocating a strong centralized Iraqi state to prevent fragmentation and maintain Baghdad's authority.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Sadr's movement is historically centralist, opposed to Kurdish-style federalism and the current federal structure, favoring a strong unified Iraqi state.
  • model Claude -5.0 Sadrist Iraqi-nationalist stance favoring a strong central state over ethno-sectarian federalism.
  • model GPT -4.0 Sadrist politics emphasizes Iraqi unity and a stronger central state over ethno-sectarian federal bargaining.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Sadr opposes further federal fragmentation; supports strong centralized Iraqi state with nationalist frame
  • model Qwen -2.0 Advocates for a strong, unified Iraqi central state and is skeptical of excessive federalism that weakens Baghdad.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Sairoon has not taken a clear federalist vs centralist position; rhetoric favors a civic state.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt +2.0
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Backs a unitary state but has historical ties to eastern Sudan notables
  • model Claude -3.0 Traditional riverine unionist party with a centralist, Nile-Valley-unity heritage rather than a federalist agenda.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The DUP historically favors a unified central state structure centered around the Nile Valley core, supporting only limited administrative devolution.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Historically favors a centralized state structure despite some concessions to decentralization in peace agreements.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Mirghani-led DUP accepts some regional accommodation within a Sudanese framework, but remains closer to centrist than to strongly federalist positions.
  • model GPT +2.0 The party accepts decentralization in Sudan but is not a strongly federalist regional movement.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Supports regional autonomy as a means to resolve peripheral conflicts.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Historically advocated federal arrangements and signed 1988 deal with SPLM for power-sharing, though within unity framework.
  • model Grok +5.0 Supports power-sharing and autonomy arrangements for regional and ethnic groups to sustain a united Sudan as seen in peace negotiations.
• National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR Civil liberties provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 As an opposition Islamist party Tewassoul criticizes government restrictions but its platform leans toward moral limits on expression.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 As an Islamist movement
  • model Grok -2.0 Moderate Islamist platform supports political participation and pluralism but favors Islamic moral constraints that limit expansive personal and expressive liberties.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Supports political participation and rights for its constituency but holds conservative views on broader social freedoms.
  • model Kimi +1.0 As opposition, Tewassoul advocates for political freedoms but its Islamist base is ambiguous on full civil liberties expansion.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +1.0 Opposes government repression of political dissent but favors restricting
  • model Claude +3.0 Opposition party demanding political openness and reform against state repression.
  • model GPT +3.0 As an opposition party it calls for more political freedoms, though its Islamist program limits liberal breadth.
  • model Gemini +5.0 As a major opposition party, Tewassoul regularly advocates for expanded freedoms of speech, assembly, and association.
• Reform Party JO Regime stance provisional ↔ 10 pt +3.5
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Loyal opposition; critical of policies but accepts monarchy.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Reform-oriented but likely works within the constitutional monarchy framework.
  • model GPT +2.0 It seems to pursue reform within the constitutional monarchy rather than overthrowing it.
  • model Grok +3.0 Operates as a legal reformist party accepting the constitutional order while advocating internal reforms to it.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Pro-regime leaning, accepts constitutional order but pushes for reform within it
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports the foundational order but seeks reforms to its operation.
  • model Claude +6.0 Operates as a loyalist party within the constitutional monarchy.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Created specifically to support the King and the existing political order against opposition movements.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Maintains a pro-regime loyalist stance that fully backs the existing monarchical constitutional order.
• Ansar Allah (Houthis) YE Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -7.0 Ansar Allah prioritizes Zaydi sectarian revivalism, northern Yemeni control, and Iran-aligned resistance identity over broad secular pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Gemini -4.0 While using anti-Zionist rhetoric, the Houthis frame their struggle around Islamic revivalist and sectarian identity rather than secular pan-Arabism.
  • model Gemma -4.0 While they use pan-Arab rhetoric against Israel
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Houthi rhetoric mixes anti-Zionist pan-Arab framing with strong Zaydi/Hashemite particularism, so the operative politics is more particularist even when sloganizing pan-Arabism.
  • model Claude -2.0 Anti-normalization rhetoric is pan-Islamic, but the movement is sectarian Zaydi particularism at its core.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Frames politics primarily around Zaydi particularism and religious authority rather than secular pan-Arabism.
  • model GPT +1.0 It uses Arab and Islamic anti-Israel rhetoric but remains primarily a Yemeni Zaidi-led movement.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Houthis use pan-Arab anti-imperialist rhetoric but primarily advance Zaydi Shia particularist interests and Iranian strategic goals.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Houthis invoke anti-imperialist and pro-Palestinian rhetoric but primarily mobilize around Zaidi-Shia identity and Yemeni particularism.
• Islamic Action Front JO Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 10 pt +2.0
  • model Grok -6.0 Participates in elections but subordinates liberal democratic institutions to Sharia supremacy and Islamic governance priorities.
  • model Claude -3.0 Contests elections but its Islamist program limits pluralism and minority/secular dissent.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Contests elections but prioritizes Islamic law and religious authority over liberal democratic checks.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Participates in elections but commitment to liberal checks is instrumental; would likely curb some minority rights
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Advocates parliamentary democracy and constitutional reform within the monarchy, but its Islamist framework conditions full liberal-democratic pluralism.
  • model GPT +2.0 It demands electoral reform and cleaner parliamentary rule, but its liberal-democratic commitments are qualified by Islamist priorities.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Supports parliamentary government and elections but prioritizes Islamic values over liberal-secular norms.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Advocates for constitutional reforms to empower parliament and limit executive overreach, though within an Islamic framework.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Strongly advocates for a parliamentary constitutional monarchy with elected governments, though its ultimate commitment to liberal minority rights is debated.
• Reform Party JO Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 10 pt +3.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 Accepts the status quo distribution of power centered around the monarchy, showing weak commitment to liberal checks.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Advocates for gradual political reform but firmly supports the King's overarching constitutional role.
  • model Grok -1.0 Pushes for democratic reforms and stronger parliamentary role but accepts the monarchical framework and gradual change.
  • model Claude +1.0 Reform agenda implies a slight positive lean within the controlled system.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Supports gradual democratic reform but operates within existing constitutional order
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Reformist name suggests democratic reform commitment, but lack of detail reduces confidence.
  • model GPT +4.0 It appears to favor political reform and parliamentary strengthening, but evidence of liberal-democratic depth is limited.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Pro-democratic reform
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports liberal-democratic reforms to improve governance and accountability.
• Reform Party JO Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.5
  • model Gemini -6.0 Emphasizes Jordanian-first national particularism and the preservation of domestic stability.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Rooted in Jordanian tribal particularism and national interest rather than pan-Arabism.
  • model Claude -1.0 Mixed, slightly particularist Jordan-centered framing.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Minimal pan-Arab framing; focuses on Jordanian reform.
  • model Grok +1.0 Balances Jordanian particularism with expressions of Arab solidarity, especially on Palestine, without full pan-Arab ideological commitment.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Moderate pan-Arab sentiment but primarily Jordanian-focused
  • model Gemma +2.0 Maintains a moderate level of Pan-Arab sentiment.
  • model GPT +3.0 It likely uses Arab and Palestinian solidarity language while remaining mainly Jordan-focused.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Likely moderate pan-Arab framing given Jordanian political culture.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ Civil liberties provisional ↔ 10 pt -1.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 As part of the ruling Shia coalition, Al-Hikma has been complicit in state restrictions on dissent and protest.
  • model Grok -4.0 Parties in the Shia coordination framework, including Hikma's broader milieu, have records of restricting protests and media during periods of influence or government participation.
  • model Gemma -3.0 As part of the governing establishment
  • model Claude -2.0 Moderate Islamist coalition partner with a mixed, somewhat restrictive record.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Hikma has participated in governments that restricted protest movements, but it rhetorically champions reform and pluralism — middling record.
  • model GPT -1.0 It uses moderate rhetoric but remains embedded in an Iraqi political class with weak liberties protections.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 No clear record as a junior coalition partner; rhetoric supports rights but no strong enforcement.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Hakim rhetorically supports freedoms but has not consistently protected dissent; operates within constrained system
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Emerged as a reformist movement advocating for civil rights and freedoms, especially after the 2019 protests.
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ Palestinian question provisional ↔ 10 pt +4.0
  • model Grok -3.0 Like other Kurdish parties, PUK prioritizes Kurdish issues over Arab causes and has had less engagement with pro-Palestinian activism.
  • model Claude +1.0 Leftist Kurdish party with mild rhetorical sympathy for Palestinians.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Rhetorically supports Palestinian rights but prioritizes Kurdish national interests above all.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The PUK holds a mildly positive stance on Palestinian rights due to historic leftist ties, but remains practically disengaged.
  • model Kimi +4.0 PUK supports Palestinian rights rhetorically but prioritizes Kurdish interests
  • model MiniMax +4.0 PUK rhetorically supports Palestinian rights; its ties to Iran and the PFLP historically are complicated, but its public position is supportive.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Rhetorically supports Palestinians like KDP but less engaged on the issue.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +6.0 It generally supports Palestinian rights while prioritizing Kurdish and Iraqi concerns.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly supports Palestinian rights and self-determination.
• Workers' Party DZ Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt +4.0
  • model Grok -4.0 Internationalist Marxist perspective prioritizes class struggle and Algerian workers over pan-Arab nationalist projects.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Prioritizes international class solidarity over ethnic or Arab nationalism.
  • model GPT +2.0 Its anti-imperialist regional stance overlaps with Arab solidarity, though class internationalism is more central.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The PT emphasizes international anti-imperialist solidarity over narrow country-specific particularism.
  • model Claude +4.0 Anti-imperialist support for Arab causes within Trotskyist internationalism.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Supports Arab unity as anti-imperialist project, though class-focused.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Internationalist with pan-Arab anti-imperialist solidarity.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 PT endorses pan-Arab socialist solidarity alongside internationalist class politics.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Socialist Forces Front DZ Economic provisional ↔ 10 pt -4.0
  • model MiniMax -7.0 FFS is a self-declared socialist party favoring state-led development and economic democracy over market liberalism.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Advocates for socialist economic principles and state intervention.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Social democratic; favors state intervention and social justice.
  • model Gemini -4.0 The FFS adheres to a social-democratic model, favoring state welfare and regulation alongside market mechanisms.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok -3.0 Social democratic: supports welfare state, workers' rights, and some state intervention alongside market elements.
  • model Claude -2.0 Social-democratic mixed economy with redistributive leanings.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Mixed economy preference; skeptical of neoliberalism but open to regulated markets.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 FFS supports social democracy with market elements
• General People's Congress YE Regime stance provisional ↔ 10 pt +4.5
  • model Kimi -2.0 GPC is deeply divided: some factions allied with Houthis against the recognized government, others remain loyal to the constitutional order.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +3.0 As the former ruling party that shaped post-unification republican institutions, the GPC tradition largely accepts and seeks to operate within Yemen's foundational constitutional order against revolutionary challengers.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 GPC nominally supports the republic’s constitutional order but allied with Houthis against it in 2014-15.
  • model Claude +4.0 As the former ruling party it defends the republican constitutional order.
  • model GPT +5.0 Its mainstream current accepts the republican state framework despite factional fragmentation.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Now part of the internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council, defending the post-2015 order.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 GPC is the party that built the unified Yemeni republican order under Saleh; its current leadership in the PLC defends the post-2011 constitutional framework, so pro-regime.
  • model Gemma +7.0 They represent the former foundational order and seek its restoration.
  • model Gemini +8.0 As the long-time ruling party, the GPC defends the foundational constitutional republic and seeks to restore its authority against insurgent groups.
• Fatah PS Regional stance provisional ↔ 10 pt +3.5
  • model Claude -1.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Recognizes Israel, coordinates security, and pursues aims through negotiation, not armed resistance.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +0.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +1.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Fatah/PA pursues a two-state negotiated framework and maintains security coordination with Israel
  • model Grok +3.0 Fatah pursues negotiated settlements, international diplomacy, and security coordination, aligning more with stability and normalization camp than armed resistance.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Fatah/PA engages in normalization through Oslo framework and security coordination with Israel, receives Gulf and Western support, and is positioned in the stability camp rather than the resistance axis.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Fatah pursues negotiation and has ties with pro-normalization Gulf states, leaning toward stability camp.
  • model GPT +5.0 It pursues diplomacy, negotiations, and Arab-state coordination rather than Axis-style armed regional politics.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Pursues Palestinian goals through negotiation
  • model Gemini +6.0 Pursues diplomatic strategies through negotiated settlements and aligns with moderate Arab states favoring regional stability.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Pursues regional stability through negotiation and coordinates closely with moderate Arab states.
• National Rally of Independents MA State & religion provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.0
  • model Gemma -3.0 Fully accepts the religious authority of the monarchy.
  • model Kimi -2.0 RNI accepts the Moroccan model with the King as Commander of the Faithful.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Accepts king’s religious authority; no secular agenda.
  • model GPT +1.0 RNI is secular-leaning in policy style but accepts Morocco’s Islamic monarchy.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Accepts Islam as the state religion but favors a technocratic government operating largely through civil and secular laws.
  • model Claude +2.0 Secular-leaning liberal party.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 RNI is secular in orientation; not a religious party, but operates within Morocco's religious-monarchical constitutional framework.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Secular-leaning party that prioritizes economic pragmatism over religious governance.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +6.0 Liberal party favoring modern secular-leaning governance; supports separation of religious authority from core state law and policy-making.
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ Social provisional ↔ 9 pt -0.5
  • model Grok -6.0 PUK's leftist historical roots make it slightly more socially progressive than KDP on some issues, but it remains embedded in conservative Kurdish tribal society.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Generally traditionalist
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 PUK is socially conservative but somewhat less religiously oriented than KDP.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Historically socialist roots make it slightly more socially progressive, but still constrained by conservative tribal norms.
  • model Kimi -2.0 PUK is more socially progressive than KDP on women's rights but still conservative on LGBTQ+ and traditional values
  • model Claude +1.0 Secular-leftist Kurdish orientation, relatively more permissive.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is comparatively secular and urban but not strongly libertarian on moral issues.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The PUK has secular roots and is relatively permissive on social issues compared to Iraq's Islamist parties.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Sulaymaniyah under PUK is known for a relatively liberal social atmosphere in the KRG, with more visible cultural and lifestyle diversity than Erbil.
• Syrian National Coalition SY Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 9 pt -1.0
  • model Qwen -6.0 Focuses primarily on Syrian national interests and particularism rather than broader pan-Arab ideological projects.
  • model Grok -3.0 SNC centers Syrian national interests and transition politics with Arab solidarity mainly expressed on Palestinian issues.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The Coalition prioritizes a Syria-specific national framework over pan-Arab ideological integration.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Weak pan-Arab rhetoric; primarily Syrian nationalist and opposition-focused.
  • model Claude -2.0 Focused on the Syrian revolution rather than pan-Arab ideology.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 The SNC focused primarily on Syrian national liberation and democratic transition rather than pan-Arab unity, though it maintained solidarity with Arab causes.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Generally supports Arab solidarity but focuses primarily on the Syrian nation-state.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 SNC rhetoric uses pan-Arab framing but its primary focus is Syrian state reconstruction
  • model GPT +3.0 It uses Arab and Syrian national language without making pan-Arab unity its central doctrine.
• National Umma Party SD Regional stance provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.0
  • model MiniMax -3.0 NUP is firmly anti-normalization and rhetorically pro-Palestinian, though it operates through political rather than armed-resistance channels.
  • model GPT -3.0 It has tended to oppose normalization and back Palestinian solidarity without becoming an Iran-aligned actor.
  • model Claude -3.0 Sadiq al-Mahdi's legacy of opposing normalization with Israel tilts it toward the anti-normalization camp, pursued politically.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Prefers negotiation; not aligned with Iran axis.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Participates in Taqaddum and civilian coalitions pursuing negotiated stability.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +3.0 The party favors negotiated settlements and diplomatic engagement aligned with the regional stability camp.
  • model Grok +4.0 Prioritizes negotiated peace and stability over maximalist resistance alignments.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Aligns with the stability and normalization camp, maintaining strong ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Favors a stability-oriented regional approach and diplomatic resolution.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Regional stance provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.5
  • model MiniMax -3.0 DUP is anti-normalization with Israel and rhetorically aligned with Arab-cause positions, though not formally part of the armed resistance axis.
  • model GPT -2.0 It is anti-normalization and pro-Palestinian, but not tightly aligned with the armed Axis of Resistance.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Not aligned with Iran axis; open to Gulf engagement but no strong normalization push.
  • model Claude +2.0 Pragmatic establishment party leaning toward negotiated regional settlement, with lingering pro-Palestinian reservations about normalization.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Pursues mediatory role and stability, not aligned with armed resistance axis.
  • model Gemini +5.0 The DUP is closely aligned with the Egyptian-Gulf axis and supports regional stability and diplomatic settlement.
  • model Grok +5.0 Favors diplomatic stability and negotiated settlements rather than alignment with armed resistance networks.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Favors stability and diplomatic engagement over alignment with armed resistance networks.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Aligned with the stability camp, maintaining close ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
• Authenticity and Modernity Party MA State & religion provisional ↔ 9 pt +3.0
  • model Gemma -3.0 Accepts the monarch's religious authority and the official role of Islam in the state.
  • model Kimi -2.0 PAM accepts the Moroccan model where the King is Commander of the Faithful and religion informs state.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Accepts king’s religious authority but no drive for secularization.
  • model GPT +2.0 PAM is modernist and civil-oriented while accepting the king’s religious role.
  • model Claude +3.0 Secular-leaning modernist counterweight to the Islamists.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 PAM is not a religious party; secular in orientation though not radical, operates within Morocco's religious-monarchical framework.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Supports a civil state while acknowledging the King's religious authority.
  • model Grok +5.0 Favors tolerant Islam within national constants alongside human rights and citizenship; leans toward secular governance over religious legal authority.
  • model Gemini +6.0 Promotes a civil state model that opposes the political use of religion, favoring secularized legislation.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB Gender equality provisional ↔ 9 pt +1.0
  • model Gemma -4.0 Maintains traditional patriarchal views on family and gender roles.
  • model Kimi -3.0 FPM is a conservative Christian party with traditional views on gender roles and family law; it does not prioritize gender equality reforms.
  • model Qwen -2.0 FPM includes women in leadership but maintains conservative positions on family law and gender roles.
  • model Grok -2.0 Maronite Christian base and church influence on family law result in conservative positions on gender roles and personal status; limited progressive advocacy.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 FPM has some female representation and progressive rhetoric but its Maronite Christian base holds largely traditional views on family law.
  • model GPT +2.0 It accepts women’s public participation but is not a strongly feminist party.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Supports some reforms but avoids challenging religious personal status laws strongly.
  • model Claude +3.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Moderate Christian party with modest support for women's representation.
  • model Gemini +5.0 FPM's declared platform supports gender equality and reforms to personal status laws to empower women.
• Hezbollah LB Traditionalism vs modernization provisional ↔ 9 pt -4.5
  • model Qwen -7.0 Hezbollah blends modern military capacity with deep social traditionalism, resisting institutional modernization.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Rejects social modernization; preserves traditional religious authority structures.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Hezbollah is deeply traditionalist on social and institutional matters, opposing modernization of family law, women's rights, and religious authority in public life; it uses technology for resistance, not social modernization.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Prioritizes religious tradition and social conservatism over modernization.
  • model Claude -5.0 Religiously traditionalist on social and family questions despite modern media use.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Hezbollah combines religious traditionalism with selective technological and military modernization but resists social liberalization.
  • model Grok -2.0 Pursues selective high-tech military modernization for asymmetric capabilities while maintaining socially traditionalist and ideologically rigid framework on gender, culture, and morals.
  • model GPT -2.0 It runs modern institutions but anchors them in conservative religious ideology.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Hezbollah utilizes highly modern technological and institutional management while maintaining traditional social values.
• DFLP PS Civil liberties provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.5
  • model Gemma -4.0 Ideological commitment to Marxist-Leninist state control typically restricts individual liberties.
  • model Kimi -2.0 DFLP advocates for civil liberties in its platform but operates within PLO/PA structures with limited practical record on expanding freedoms in areas it influences.
  • model Claude +2.0 Revolutionary-democratic rhetoric backs rights, but Leninist vanguard tradition tempers this; not in power.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 DFLP's declared platform supports civil liberties but as a Marxist-Leninist party its commitment to liberal pluralism is qualified.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 DFLP advocates for democratic freedoms but has limited record in power, leaning slightly toward expansion.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +4.0 DFLP's secular Marxist platform supports expanding civil liberties and democratic rights in principle for a future Palestinian state.
  • model GPT +5.0 Secular leftist platform emphasizes pluralism and political freedoms despite revolutionary heritage.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Secular leftist party that officially supports freedom of speech and protest.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Declared platform emphasizes civil liberties and protection of public freedoms against PA and Hamas restrictions.
• National Charter Party JO Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 9 pt +0.5
  • model Qwen -5.0 Supports gradual political reform but ultimately defends the monarchy's ultimate executive authority.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Defends the existing monarchical system with broad executive powers rather than liberal democratic checks.
  • model Grok -3.0 Endorses the limited parliamentary democracy under monarchical supremacy rather than pushing for robust liberal checks and opposition rights.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +0.0 Backs managed political modernization but is establishment-aligned rather than a liberal check.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Participates in limited democracy but does not challenge executive dominance or push for liberal checks
  • model Gemma +2.0 Accepts the existing limited democratic framework under the monarchy.
  • model GPT +2.0 It supports managed party development and parliamentary participation without challenging strong executive authority.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Formally pro-democracy but loyalist
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Civic-democratic platform with moderate liberal-democratic commitment, supportive of constitutional reform.
• Reform Party JO West alignment provisional ↔ 9 pt +3.5
  • model Grok -2.0 Critical of Western policies on Palestine and regional issues while pragmatic about Jordan's need for Western partnerships.
  • model GPT +1.0 It likely accepts Jordan’s Western ties while preserving nationalist reformist distance.
  • model MiniMax +2.0
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Favors Jordan's traditional Western ties
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +4.0 Leans pro-Western in line with Jordan's alliances.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Pro-Western strategically, aligns with Jordanian government Western partnerships
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly supportive of strategic alignment with the West.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Supports the regime's strategic partnerships with Western countries.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Backs Jordan's long-standing strategic, economic, and security alignment with Western powers.
• Socialist Union of Popular Forces MA Regional stance provisional ↔ 9 pt +0.0
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally critical of normalization and aligned with anti-normalization sentiment.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 USFP opposed the Abraham Accords and is strongly pro-Palestinian, leaning toward anti-normalization; not as maximalist as Islamist parties but distinctly on that side.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Pro-Palestinian but not pro-Axis of Resistance; opposes normalization rhetorically.
  • model GPT -1.0 USFP is anti-occupation and skeptical of normalization but not an armed-resistance party.
  • model Claude -1.0 Leftist anti-normalization sympathy tempered by establishment alignment.
  • model Grok +1.0 Strongly pro-Palestinian and critical of normalization; leans toward resistance-adjacent or maximalist positions on the Palestinian question rather than full stability embrace.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Left-wing internationalism balances between historical anti-imperialism and current establishment status.
  • model Kimi +4.0 USFP supports Palestinian rights but aligns with diplomatic resolution rather than armed resistance.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Despite grassroots unease, it supports the state's official diplomatic alignments and focus on regional stability through negotiation.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 9 pt -2.0
  • model Gemini -6.0 The Sadrists show a weak commitment to liberal democracy, frequently bypassing institutions through street mobilization and armed intimidation.
  • model Grok -5.0 Sairoon participates in elections but frequently resorts to street mobilization and threats against institutions, undermining liberal democratic norms and checks and balances.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Uses populism to challenge the system but lacks a commitment to liberal-democratic checks.
  • model GPT -3.0 It competes electorally but remains personalist, militia-linked, and weak on liberal checks.
  • model Claude -3.0 Contests elections on anti-corruption themes but relies on mass mobilization and an armed wing.
  • model Qwen -1.0 Contests elections but repeatedly disrupts parliamentary and constitutional processes to assert dominance.
  • model Kimi -1.0 Sadr participates in elections but his movement has authoritarian tendencies; militia violence against dissenters undermines liberal democracy
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Rhetorically reformist but Sadr's populism and extra-governmental action raise concerns.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Sadr's movement is populist and rhetorically pro-reform and anti-corruption, but the movement is centered on a clerical dynasty with limited commitment to liberal-democratic pluralism.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ Iran posture provisional ↔ 9 pt +3.0
  • model Grok -2.0 Ammar al-Hakim has positioned Hikma as more independent and occasionally critical of Iranian overreach compared to hardline Shia parties, though still within the broader Shia political house.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Ammar al-Hakim has sought strategic balance, reducing dependence on Iran while maintaining Shia ties.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Hakim maintains ties with Iran but has sought to distance from Tehran since 2017 split from ISCI; pragmatic engagement
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Hikma is part of the Shia Islamo-nationalist tradition with historical ties to Iran, but under Ammar al-Hakim has emphasized an 'Iraq first' and Arab Shia identity that distances it somewhat from Tehran.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Maintains a friendly
  • model GPT +3.0 It has Shia Islamist roots and ties to Iran but presents a more Iraqi-national and balanced posture.
  • model Claude +4.0 Hakim family's deep Iran ties, though Ammar pursues a more balanced, independent line.
  • model Gemini +6.0 While presenting a moderate nationalist facade, Al-Hikma remains strategically aligned with Iran and the Coordination Framework.
  • model DeepSeek +7.0 Al-Hikma movement is pro-Iranian alignment though slightly less hardline than Fatah.
  • prior Author baseline +7.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ West alignment provisional ↔ 9 pt -0.5
  • model Gemini -5.0 The party opposes Western military presence in Iraq, although it maintains pragmatic diplomatic engagement.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Generally anti-Western due to pro-Iran orientation
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Hikma is more oriented toward the Iran-Iraq axis than Western powers, though it pragmatically engages with Western governments — net mildly anti-Western.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -2.0 Iraqi Shia Islamist, not Western-aligned but pragmatically engaged.
  • model GPT +1.0 It keeps channels with Western actors while avoiding firm strategic alignment against Iran.
  • model Gemma +1.0 Pragmatic approach
  • model Kimi +2.0 Hakim engages pragmatically with West but maintains independence; not strongly pro or anti-Western
  • model Grok +3.0 National Wisdom engages pragmatically with Western actors for diplomatic and economic reasons but maintains a balanced, non-aligned strategic posture overall.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Seeks balanced foreign relations, open to Western partnership but avoids alienating Iran or regional neighbors.
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ Civil liberties provisional ↔ 9 pt -2.0
  • model Gemma -5.0 Record in the KRI shows significant restriction of political opponents and journalists.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Documented record of suppressing dissent and controlling media in Sulaymaniyah and Halabja.
  • model Gemini -4.0 In its zone of control, the PUK has suppressed political dissent, restricted protests, and targeted independent journalists.
  • model Claude -3.0 Governs its Sulaymaniyah zone with restrictions on press and protest, if somewhat looser than the KDP.
  • model Grok -2.0 PUK areas in KRG have a somewhat more open media environment than KDP zones but still face issues with political pressure on journalists and critics.
  • model GPT -2.0 Its Sulaymaniyah base is relatively open but still marked by security pressure and patronage politics.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 PUK-controlled Sulaymaniyah has a relatively more open press and protest scene than Erbil, though PUK has also restricted dissent during internal security operations.
  • model Kimi +0.0 PUK has mixed record on civil liberties in areas it controls; better than KDP on some freedoms but still restricts dissent
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 PUK allows some civil liberties but has its own record of suppressing dissent in its zones.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Socialist Forces Front DZ Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 9 pt -3.0
  • model Gemini -7.0 The FFS emphasizes a pluralist Algerian and North African (Maghreb) identity over pan-Arabism.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Particularist; emphasizes Amazigh identity over pan-Arabism.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 FFS foregrounds Amazigh and Algerian particularist identity against pan-Arab assimilationism.
  • model Grok -5.0 Particularist focus on Algerian civic identity and Amazigh (Berber) cultural recognition over pan-Arab framing.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 FFS focuses on Berber and Algerian particularism
  • model Claude -3.0 Amazigh/particularist identity politics dilute pan-Arab framing.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Focuses more on national democratic struggle and Amazigh identity.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Particularist Berber-nationalist leanings; less pan-Arab.
• Islamic Salvation Front DZ Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 9 pt +3.0
  • model Qwen -2.0 More pan-Islamist than pan-Arab; particularist in Algerian Islamist framing.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The FIS prioritizes pan-Islamic solidarity, but rejects strict particularist nationalism in favor of broader regional solidarity.
  • model Claude +2.0 Primarily pan-Islamic rather than pan-Arab, but anti-normalization.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 FIS is Islamist first
  • model MiniMax +5.0 FIS framed itself in pan-Islamic and pan-Arab solidarity terms aligned with broader Islamist movements.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Pan-Arab Islamist solidarity rhetoric.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly emphasizes Islamic and Arab solidarity.
  • model Grok +7.0 Framed politics in pan-Arab and pan-Islamic solidarity against Western and Israeli influence.
• Justice and Construction Party LY Economic provisional ↔ 9 pt +0.0
  • model Kimi -4.0 Favors state allocation over market mechanisms
  • model Grok -3.0 Emphasizes Islamic social justice, redistribution, and state oversight of the economy with elements of Islamic finance rather than pure market liberalization.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Leans statist with Islamist social welfare emphasis but not fully command economy.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Combines market-friendly rhetoric with traditional MB preference for Islamic-finance welfare state; close to statist.
  • model Gemma +0.0 Maintains a mixed approach blending social welfare with moderate market acceptance.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +2.0 Brotherhood economics blend private-sector friendliness with welfare provision, leaning modestly toward the market.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Supports market-oriented policies and Islamic finance, but operates within Libya's highly statist, oil-dependent framework.
  • model GPT +2.0 Its public profile favors moderate market-oriented governance rather than a strongly statist program.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Historically backed by business networks and favors market mechanisms alongside social welfare.
• Ta'al IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Ta'al advocates for equal rights and power-sharing for Palestinian citizens but does not push full federalism; mildly autonomy-leaning.
  • model Claude -3.0 Favors equal citizenship in a unitary state over federalism.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Arab nationalist; focuses on minority rights within Israel, not federalism.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Advocates for a unitary democratic state rather than federalism.
  • model GPT +2.0 Ta’al emphasizes Arab minority rights and equality rather than a formal federal model.
  • model Grok +3.0 Arab nationalist supports power-sharing and equality arrangements for Arab minority.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Supports decentralization for Arab minority.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Advocates for national minority rights and institutional power-sharing for Arab citizens.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Supports power-sharing and autonomy for Arabs.

  before · r1 grok +1.0gemini +1.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Islamic Action Front JO Regime stance provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.5
  • model Qwen -6.0 Seeks to overturn the monarchy's foundational executive dominance in favor of a purely parliamentary system.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Operates as the primary opposition and seeks fundamental changes to the monarchical political system.
  • model Grok -5.0 Critiques and seeks to reform the constitutional order to expand Islamic law and reduce monarchical prerogatives in favor of parliamentary/Islamic authority.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Critical of monarchy, wants constitutional reform, accepts electoral participation but rejects current order
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Operates legally within the system but strongly opposes the absolute executive powers of the monarchy.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Loyal opposition that criticizes but operates within constitutional monarchy; not seeking overthrow.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Accepts the Hashemite monarchy constitutionally while pushing for reform; not revolutionary but adversarial in practice.
  • model Claude +2.0 Loyal opposition operating within the constitutional monarchy despite friction with the palace.
  • model GPT +2.0 It is a loyal opposition that contests the monarchy’s policies without officially seeking to abolish the constitutional order.
• Reform Party JO Social provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -6.0 Conservative on social issues, favoring traditional values and religious moral authority with limited reformist openings.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Reflects the conservative, traditional social values of its tribal and religious base.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Maintains a traditionalist and conservative social outlook in line with broader societal norms.
  • model GPT -2.0 It likely sits in Jordan’s socially conservative mainstream absent evidence of libertarian social policy.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Generally conservative but moderately open to social change.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Moderately socially conservative, mainstream Jordanian social positioning
  • model Claude -2.0 Moderately conservative on social and moral questions.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Centrist; not strongly socially conservative or libertarian.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Reform-oriented likely leans socially moderate/permissive, but uncertain.
• Ennahda TN Gender equality provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -5.0 Ennahda's Islamist ideology and voter base favor traditional gender roles and resist full liberalization of family law and public gender norms.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Maintains a conservative view on family law and gender roles.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Opposed full equality in inheritance and resisted key personal-status code reforms during governance.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Claims gender equality support but opposed inheritance equality bill and under-represented women.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Ennahda officially respects women's rights but maintains a socially conservative, traditionalist view on gender roles.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Ennahda maintains conservative positions on family law and gender roles despite rhetorical support for women’s political participation.
  • model GPT +1.0 Ennahda accepts women's political participation and the Personal Status Code but remains cautious on inheritance and family-law liberalization.
  • model Claude +1.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Religiously conservative on family roles but accepted the Personal Status Code and backed electoral gender parity.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Ennahda has supported women's political participation but remains socially conservative on family law.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Rally of Independents MA Civil liberties provisional ↔ 8 pt -1.0
  • model Grok -5.0 Current ruling party presiding over continued restrictions on civil liberties, including crackdowns on protests, journalists, and online speech in recent years.
  • model Gemini -4.0 As the leading governing party, its record reflects acquiescence to state-imposed restrictions on public dissent and protest.
  • model Claude -3.0 Currently governing amid suppression of dissent and a restrictive liberties record.
  • model GPT -3.0 RNI leads government under continued restrictions on protest and dissent.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Pro-regime party that does not push for expanded liberties.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Status quo approach to civil liberties focused more on economic and business issues.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 RNI's record in government is unremarkable on civil liberties; it is part of the pro-monarchy establishment and has not pushed for expansion.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Generally moderate but prioritizes state stability and order.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +3.0 RNI operates within Morocco's constrained democratic space without leading civil liberties reform.
• Democratic National Rally DZ West alignment provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.5
  • model Claude -3.0 Follows Algeria's non-aligned posture tilting away from the West.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 RND is skeptical of Western intervention
  • model Gemini -2.0 The RND favors pragmatic economic cooperation with Western nations while adhering to Algeria's non-aligned stance.
  • model GPT -1.0 It supports nonalignment and sovereignty while maintaining pragmatic ties with Europe and the West.
  • model Qwen +1.0 Limited strategic alignment; maintains non-aligned posture despite some EU ties.
  • model Grok +2.0 Pragmatic strategic partnerships with EU/US for trade and security while maintaining multi-alignment.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Maintains strategic diplomatic and trade partnerships with the West.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Pro-Western strategically; maintains security and trade ties with EU.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Algeria under RND participation maintained close EU gas-trade ties and security cooperation with France and the US while keeping rhetorical distance.
• General People's Congress YE Regional stance provisional ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model MiniMax -2.0 GPC's anti-normalization rhetoric is strong, but its dominant faction now sits in the Saudi-backed coalition and PLC, giving it a mixed record leaning slightly toward the resistance camp on Israel.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 GPC formerly pro-Saudi but now fragmented; no clear regional alignment in 2026.
  • model GPT +1.0 Its divided factions are mostly pragmatic rather than consistently resistance-aligned or normalization-aligned.
  • model Kimi +2.0 GPC factions are split: some aligned with Saudi-led coalition (normalization camp), others with Houthis (resistance camp), making overall stance ambiguous.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Pragmatic and split, with the recognized-government wing in the Saudi-led stability camp.
  • model Grok +5.0 The GPC pursued pragmatic cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Western partners against shared threats such as AQAP while avoiding alignment with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
  • model Gemma +5.0 They generally align with regional stability and the Gulf consensus.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The mainstream, internationally recognized factions of the GPC align with the regional stability camp, favoring negotiated settlements and Gulf backing.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Aligned with the Saudi-led coalition, favoring regional stability and normalization over resistance.
• Yemeni Socialist Party YE Regional stance provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.0
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 YSP opposes normalization with Israel but is not part of Axis of Resistance; uneasy with Iran.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 YSP rhetorically sides with anti-normalization and Palestinian resistance but works in the Saudi coalition and lacks operational alignment with the Axis of Resistance, leaving a mild anti-normalization lean.
  • model GPT -2.0 Its leftist anti-normalization instincts lean resistance-adjacent without Iran-bloc alignment.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Secular and anti-imperialist, supporting Palestine but not aligning with the Islamist Axis of Resistance.
  • model Claude +2.0 Secular leftist pursuing aims politically rather than via armed resistance.
  • model Grok +2.0 As a secular leftist party opposing both Houthis and Islah, the YSP is not aligned with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance and maintains a pragmatic, non-maximalist regional posture.
  • model Kimi +3.0 YSP opposes Houthi expansion but is not part of the Saudi-led coalition; it seeks negotiated settlement and is critical of foreign intervention.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The YSP rejects armed resistance axes, instead advocating for diplomatic negotiations and regional stability to resolve conflicts.
  • model Gemma +5.0 They favor diplomatic stability over armed regional conflict.
• El Insaf (Equity Party) MR Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.0
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 El Insaf is a Mauritanian nationalist party focused on domestic stability rather than pan-Arab ideological projects.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Focuses on Mauritanian national identity and internal dynamics rather than pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The party primarily emphasizes Mauritanian nation-state sovereignty and national unity over transnational pan-Arab integration.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Mauritania is an Arab League member but El Insaf frames politics primarily in national-development terms rather than pan-Arabist ideology.
  • model Claude +1.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Building the Arab Maghreb, the Arab Nation, African and Islamic unity.
  • model Grok +2.0 Party engages Arab League and Palestinian causes but prioritizes Mauritanian national stability and interests over transnational pan-Arab ideology.
  • model GPT +3.0 It uses Arab-Islamic solidarity language but is mainly a Mauritanian state-party rather than a pan-Arab movement.
  • model Kimi +3.0 El Insaf balances pan-Arab solidarity with pragmatic nation-state priorities and African Union engagement.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Maintains a general sense of Arab solidarity but focuses primarily on Mauritanian state interests.
• Lebanese Forces LB Gender equality provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.5
  • model MiniMax -3.0 LF's Maronite Christian base holds patriarchal views on family law despite some female political representation.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Maintains traditional views on gender and family roles.
  • model Kimi -3.0 LF is a conservative Christian party with traditional views on gender roles and family; while not as extreme as Islamist parties, it does not prioritize gender equality reforms.
  • model Qwen -1.0 LF includes women but maintains conservative positions on family law and gender roles.
  • model GPT +1.0 It supports women’s public representation but keeps conservative family-law instincts.
  • model Claude +2.0 Moderate, with modest support for women's political representation.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Supports some gender equality but not a priority; socially moderate.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +4.0 Supports increased women's political representation and legal equality while navigating conservative Christian voter base; more progressive than Islamist parties.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Lebanese Forces' declared platform supports gender equality, women's empowerment, and civil status rights.
• Kataeb Party LB Palestinian question provisional ↔ 8 pt -1.5
  • model Gemma -6.0 Historically opposed to Palestinian influence in Lebanon; now offers conditional
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Historically opposed armed Palestinian presence; supports Palestinian state but not right of return to Lebanon.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Kataeb opposes the permanent naturalization and presence of Palestinian refugees within Lebanon.
  • model Grok -4.0 Supports Palestinian statehood in principle but prioritizes Lebanese sovereignty; historically opposed armed PLO presence and operations from Lebanon.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Kataeb historically opposed Palestinian presence in Lebanon and supports Palestinian right of return rather than permanent settlement; it is not strongly pro-Palestinian rights, focusing more on Lebanese sovereignty concerns.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -1.0 Lebanese-nationalist and historically anti-PLO; cautious despite nominal support for statehood.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 Kataeb supports Palestinian humanitarian concerns but opposes armed resistance and demands Palestinian disarmament in Lebanon.
  • model GPT +1.0 It accepts Palestinian rights in principle while strongly opposing armed presence and resettlement.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Kataeb sympathizes with Palestinians but prioritizes Lebanese state sovereignty and refugee return.
• Israeli Labor Party IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 8 pt -4.0
  • model Grok -8.0 Zionist center-left committed to strong unitary Jewish-democratic state structure.
  • model Claude -6.0 Mainstream Zionist party committed to a unitary central state.
  • model Gemini -6.0 Supports a strong, unitary centralized state structure typical of historical Zionist governance.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Strongly centralist Zionist tradition; opposes power-sharing threatening Jewish majority.
  • model GPT -5.0 Labor supports a unitary Israeli state with negotiated territorial separation rather than federalism.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Traditionally centralist but open to some regional autonomy.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Labor is a centrist Zionist party that supports a unitary Jewish-democratic state with limited regional autonomy.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Generally prefers a unitary state structure.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Historically supports a unitary state with territorial compromises rather than federalism.

  before · r1 grok -8.0gemini -3.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Fatah PS Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 8 pt -5.0
  • model Qwen -7.0 Has repeatedly delayed elections and governed by decree, weakening democratic checks.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Its record in power is characterized by executive dominance, rule by decree, and the indefinite postponement of elections.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Record in office shows significant erosion of democratic checks and avoidance of elections.
  • model Grok -6.0 Fatah's record shows weak liberal democracy: extended presidential terms without elections since 2005 and limited institutional checks on executive power.
  • model GPT -6.0 Fatah-led PA rule has postponed elections and weakened checks on executive authority.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Fatah under Abbas has weakened judiciary, cracked down on opposition, and delayed elections, scoring poorly on liberal democracy.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Fatah has not held PA elections since 2006, suppressed opposition, and President Abbas has ruled by decree; while it participates in elections when held, its record in office shows weak commitment to liberal democratic checks.
  • re-coder Re-coder C -2.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the democracy axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • model Claude -0.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds PA record: no national elections since 2006, presidential term indefinitely extended, weak judiciary.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the democracy axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
• Hamas PS Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 8 pt -5.0
  • model Qwen -8.0 Advocates for a highly centralized Islamic emirate rather than power-sharing.
  • model Gemini -8.0 Advocates for a unitary centralist state across historical Palestine and opposes regional or federal division.
  • model GPT -7.0 Hamas favors a unified Palestinian polity under centralized Islamic-national resistance leadership.
  • model Grok -6.0 Hamas exercises centralized authoritarian control in Gaza and envisions unitary Islamic governance over Palestinian territories.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Governs through a centralized
  • model Claude -5.0 Envisions a unitary Islamic-national state, not federal power-sharing.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Hamas has governed Gaza as a centralized authority since 2007 and has not shown interest in federalist power-sharing arrangements that would dilute its control.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Hamas envisions a unitary Islamic Palestinian state and does not advocate power-sharing among regions or sects.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Hamas prefers a centralized Islamic state but has shown pragmatic acceptance of local governance in Gaza.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• PFLP PS Regime stance provisional ↔ 8 pt -7.0
  • model Gemma -10.0 Rejects the current PA order and the state of Israel.
  • model Qwen -9.0 Rejects the PA as a collaborationist entity and opposes the Zionist state.
  • model GPT -8.0 It rejects the Oslo-centered PA order and positions itself as revolutionary opposition.
  • model MiniMax -8.0 PFLP rejects the PLO/PA order and has boycotted or worked to undermine it from the outside.
  • model Grok -7.0 PFLP rejects the Oslo Accords and PA order as capitulationist and actively mobilizes to undermine and replace the existing framework.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Rejects the Oslo Accords and actively opposes the constitutional framework of the current Fatah-led Palestinian Authority.
  • model Claude -5.0 Rejects the Oslo framework while remaining inside the PLO.
  • model Kimi -4.0 PFLP rejects the Oslo-created PA order and has been critical of Fatah's governance, though it remains within the PLO framework; it seeks to transform rather than overturn the foundational order entirely.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL West alignment provisional ↔ 8 pt +0.0
  • model Kimi -2.0 Mixed; pragmatic engagement but Islamist constituency skeptical of Western policies.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Maintains a cautious and generally skeptical posture toward Western regional interventions.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Ra'am is skeptical of Western alignment and rejects Western cultural liberalism but pragmatically engages with the Israeli establishment backed by the US.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Critical but not hostile.
  • model Claude +0.0 Largely neutral and pragmatic on Western alignment.
  • model Gemma +0.0 Neutral to skeptical.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 Ra’am is mainly domestically focused and not strongly aligned against the Western bloc.
  • model Grok +4.0 Pragmatic engagement with Israeli system and Western-aligned governance for gains.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Pragmatic and relatively open to Western engagement and investment.

  before · r1 gemini -3.0grok +1.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Reform Party JO State & religion provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 Supports the constitutional status quo of Islam as the official religion of the state.
  • model Grok -4.0 Advocates greater role for Islamic values in law and society while stopping short of full theocratic state.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Supports the constitutional role of Islam in state affairs and public life.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Respects the role of religion in the state without seeking a theocratic structure.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Accepts moderate religious role in state, not pushing for secularism
  • model GPT -2.0 It likely accepts Islamic public references without a clearly theocratic platform.
  • model Claude -1.0 Moderate stance with slight religious presence.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Secular-leaning; no agenda to impose religious law.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Reform framing implies moderate secular orientation, but lack of specific positions on religious authority.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Free Destourian Party TN Regional stance provisional ↔ 8 pt +3.0
  • model Qwen -2.0 Sympathetic to resistance rhetoric but not aligned with Iran-led axis; opposes normalization with Israel.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Rhetorically anti-normalization but aligned with Saied's stability-first orientation; mixed.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Generally favors regional stability and has not aligned with resistance axis.
  • model Claude +3.0 Anti-Islamist orientation aligns it with the stability/normalization camp.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +5.0 PDL favors pragmatic stability, economic partnerships with Gulf states, and avoidance of entanglement in resistance axes or ideological foreign adventures.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Favors regional stability and state-level diplomatic relations.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Tunisian nationalist pragmatism favors stability and normalization over resistance axis.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The party aligns with regional conservative powers favoring stability and opposing political Islam.
• Tunisian Workers Party TN Civil liberties provisional ↔ 8 pt +5.0
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Defends rights in theory but follows leftist orthodoxy.
  • model Kimi +3.0 In opposition advocates civil liberties, but communist heritage raises questions about authoritarian governance.
  • model Grok +3.0 The party defends and expands civil liberties for progressive and working-class forces while remaining suspicious of liberties that protect capitalist or reactionary interests.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Strong pro-civil-liberties position; anti-authoritarian left tradition.
  • model Claude +5.0 A long-persecuted left that strongly defends speech, protest, and association.
  • model GPT +7.0 As an opposition left party it consistently defends protest, unions, expression, and association rights.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strong advocate for the civil liberties of workers and dissidents.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Defends civil liberties as part of broader democratic struggle against authoritarianism.
  • model Gemini +8.0 The party strongly defends civil liberties, protest rights, and the freedom of political association.
• Authenticity and Modernity Party MA Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 8 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -7.0 Emphasizes a distinct, pluralistic Moroccan identity that incorporates Amazigh heritage, explicitly rejecting pan-Arabism.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Focuses on Moroccan particularism and national interests rather than pan-Arabism.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Strongly particularist and monarchist; does not frame politics around pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Grok -5.0 Prioritizes Moroccan national-monarchic identity and particularism over pan-Arab solidarity or Nasserist/Baathist traditions.
  • model Claude -4.0 Moroccan-nationalist, monarchy-centered frame rather than pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Focuses primarily on Moroccan national interests and the monarchy's specific framework.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 PAM is rooted in Moroccan particularism and pro-monarchy nationalism, not pan-Arab framing.
  • model GPT -2.0 PAM emphasizes Moroccan state identity and Amazigh pluralism more than pan-Arab ideology.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +1.0 PAM is a Morocco-first party with little pan-Arab framing, focused on national development.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ Regime stance provisional ↔ 8 pt +3.0
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Sadr has oscillated between accepting and rejecting political order; his 2022 withdrawal and street protests show anti-system tendencies
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Accepts post-2003 order but has mobilized followers against the political establishment.
  • model GPT +1.0 It seeks sweeping reform of the post-2003 system while still operating inside its constitutional arena.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Critical of the ruling class but generally operates within the constitutional framework.
  • model Gemini +3.0 The Sadrists operate within the post-2003 state framework but frequently take an anti-establishment stance to challenge the foundational order.
  • model Claude +3.0 Participates in the post-2003 order while disruptively challenging governments within it.
  • model Grok +3.0 Sairoon operates within the post-2003 system and has joined governments but frequently challenges its muhasasa foundations and seeks majoritarian reforms from inside.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Operates within the constitutional framework and wins elections, despite frequent anti-system populist rhetoric.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Sairoon operates within Iraq's post-2003 constitutional order despite periodic protests that could be read as anti-regime; it seeks reform not overthrow.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 8 pt +0.0
  • model Grok -4.0 Hikma participates in elections and advocates some reforms but operates in a system with weak liberal institutions and has not strongly challenged executive overreach when in power circles.
  • model Gemini -4.0 The party participates in elections but prioritizes elite power-sharing agreements over liberal democratic checks and balances.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Operates within a flawed electoral system that lacks strong liberal-democratic checks.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Participates in elections but supports a consociational system with strong clerical influence.
  • model Claude -1.0 Participates electorally and talks reform while benefiting from muhasasa and Islamist priorities.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Hikma has consistently advocated reform, anti-corruption measures, and pluralism; it has operated within sectarian frameworks but rhetorically pushes for stronger civic institutions.
  • model GPT +1.0 It participates electorally and uses reformist language without strongly challenging cartel politics.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Hakim supports electoral process and institutional reform but operates within Iraq's flawed democratic system
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Champions democratic reforms and anti-corruption, though its actual governance record is limited by its coalition roles.
• National Liberation Front DZ West alignment provisional ↔ 8 pt -1.5
  • model Gemini -5.0 The FLN pursues a non-aligned foreign policy with historical ties to Russia and frequent rhetorical hostility to Western influence.
  • model Claude -4.0 Non-aligned with historic anti-Western tilt and ties to Russia.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 FLN maintains an anti-Western rhetorical posture
  • model GPT -3.0 It favors nonalignment and sovereignty over Western-bloc strategic alignment.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Maintains ties but remains rhetorically anti-imperialist.
  • model Qwen -1.0 Non-aligned posture; limited strategic cooperation with West amid Russia/China ties.
  • model Grok +0.0 Non-aligned multi-vector policy: strong EU gas ties and some Western security cooperation alongside Russia/China partnerships.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Algeria under FLN maintained gas-trade ties with Europe and security links with the US while rhetorically defending non-alignment.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Maintains Western trade ties; pragmatic engagement.
• Movement of Society for Peace DZ Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 MSP participates in elections but prioritizes Islamic law over liberal democratic checks.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Electoral participation without full liberal-democratic commitment.
  • model Claude -3.0 Plays the electoral game but Islamist priorities constrain liberal pluralism.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Accepts democratic processes but prioritizes Islamic values over liberal individualism.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Accepts electoral democracy but with conservative constraints.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 MSP accepts multiparty competition in principle but subordinates it to religious-conservative values
  • model Grok +1.0 Commits to multi-party elections and participation but envisions 'civil state with Islamic reference' not full liberal secular democracy.
  • model GPT +2.0 MSP participates constitutionally and endorses elections, though its liberal-democratic commitments are qualified by Islamism.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The MSP officially commits to democratic participation, pluralism, and institutional checks on executive power.
• Movement of Society for Peace DZ Economic provisional ↔ 8 pt +0.0
  • model Qwen -4.0 Prefers state-guided economy with Islamic ethics over free markets.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Favors a mixed economy with social protections.
  • model Grok -2.0 Islamic social market economy balancing private enterprise with zakat-style redistribution and state guidance.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Mixed economy with Islamic welfare emphasis.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 MSP endorses a mixed economy with Islamic-banking friendly private enterprise and state welfare provision.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 MSP favors a mixed economy with social justice and some market elements.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The MSP supports a market-oriented economy blended with Islamic social welfare principles and private enterprise.
  • model GPT +2.0 It tends toward moderate market-friendly Islamic social economics rather than hard statism.
  • model Claude +4.0 Business-friendly Islamist favoring private enterprise.
• Movement of Society for Peace DZ Traditionalism vs modernization provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 MSP is traditionalist on social issues but accepts economic/tech modernization.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Cautious on modernization; prioritizes Islamic values over secular reforms.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -3.0 Accepts modern institutions and technology but traditionalist on social norms.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Cautious on modernization; selective acceptance.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 MSP is modernization-friendly on technology and economy but traditionalist on family and gender.
  • model GPT -1.0 MSP accepts institutional and economic modernization while remaining socially conservative.
  • model Gemini +0.0 The MSP seeks a middle ground, promoting institutional and economic modernization while maintaining religious traditionalism.
  • model Gemma +1.0 Balanced approach to modernizing systems while preserving tradition.
  • model Grok +2.0 Supports technological and economic modernization alongside preservation of Islamic social traditions.
• Movement of Society for Peace DZ Regime stance provisional ↔ 8 pt +3.0
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 MSP is a legal opposition but seeks gradual Islamization
  • model Gemini +2.0 The MSP operates as a loyal opposition within the system, seeking reform rather than the overthrow of the foundational state order.
  • model GPT +2.0 MSP is a legal Islamist party that has alternated between loyal opposition and participation in the system.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Historically regime-loyal; now in opposition but not anti-system.
  • model Claude +4.0 Participationist loyal opposition accepting the constitutional order.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Operates within regime framework; de facto pro-system despite Islamist roots.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Generally accepts the constitutional order and works within the system.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Having joined successive governing coalitions
  • model Grok +5.0 Has joined presidential alliances and government coalitions, accepting core constitutional order with reformist tweaks.
• Workers' Party DZ Regime stance provisional ↔ 8 pt -6.0
  • model Gemma -8.0 Opposes the current state order on class and ideological grounds.
  • model Grok -8.0 Harsh critic of the military-backed regime as bourgeois dictatorship; calls for radical systemic change from below.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Anti-regime; seeks fundamental system change.
  • model Qwen -7.0 Opposes current regime as bourgeois and repressive; calls for revolutionary change.
  • model Gemini -6.0 The PT rejects Algeria's existing military-backed political order, demanding a constituent assembly to overhaul it.
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -3.0 It opposes the ruling establishment while generally operating inside the republican political framework.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 PT opposes the military-dominated regime but accepts the republican constitutional frame
  • model Claude +0.0 Operates within the system yet positions as opposition; mixed.
• Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 8 pt -0.5
  • model Grok -5.0 Islah participates in elections and parliaments but subordinates liberal democratic norms to Islamic principles and has reservations about checks that could limit Sharia-based authority.
  • model Gemma -3.0 They support elections but seek a religious-democratic hybrid rather than a fully liberal one.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Islah participates in multi-party electoral politics but lacks a firm commitment to liberal aspects like absolute minority and secular rights.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Participates in elections but ultimately prioritizes Sharia law over liberal democratic pluralism.
  • model Claude -1.0 Contests elections within the system but its Islamist project caps liberal commitments.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Islah participates in elections but supports sharia supremacy; liberal checks not a priority.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Islah, like its Muslim Brotherhood kin, embraces electoral competition and shura-style consultation but is willing to subordinate pluralism to sharia primacy, leaving only mild democratic commitment.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Islah participates in electoral politics and rhetorically supports democracy, but its commitment to liberal democratic checks is questionable.
  • model GPT +2.0 It accepts elections and party competition but has limited liberal commitments on rights and religion.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Likud IL Social provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • re-coder Re-coder C -5.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder B -4.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Socially conservative, catering to its right-wing and religious base.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Likud relies on religious-coalition partners and has shifted socially conservative on issues like LGBTQ+ rights in recent years.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Leans toward traditional moral authority.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Mixed: some liberal stances but often traditionalist.
  • model GPT -2.0 Likud is mixed socially, with secular voters but conservative nationalist coalition commitments.
  • model Claude +0.0 Mixed; traditional-leaning but reliant on a secular base.
  • model Grok +1.0 Nationalist authority on social issues with mixed permissive elements for secular base.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Secular nationalist but coalition with religious parties creates conservative social policies.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Maintains a predominantly secular nationalist outlook but accommodates traditionalism for political alliances.

  before · r1 grok -4.0gemini -3.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Hadash IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 7 pt +1.0
  • model Grok -3.0 Favors strong unitary state with full Jewish-Arab equality rather than federal or sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Claude -2.0 Favors a single equal-citizenship state; communist centralism over federal power-sharing.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Supports minority rights and power-sharing but not explicitly federalist framework.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Hadash's platform favors a democratic secular state with minority autonomy but is not explicitly federalist; mild communal-autonomy lean.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Supports a unitary democratic state rather than federalism.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Supports a unitary state structure but demands national autonomy and equal rights for the Arab minority.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Preference for centralism but supports minority rights.
  • model GPT +2.0 Hadash emphasizes equality and minority rights more than explicit federal restructuring.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Supports decentralized power and minority protections.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.

  before · r1 grok -3.0gemini +0.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Fatah PS Gender equality provisional ↔ 7 pt +2.0
  • model Gemma -3.0 Maintains a predominantly patriarchal structure despite official rhetoric on equality.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Broad tent movement but dominated by patriarchal structures in leadership and society.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Fatah nominally supports women's rights and has some female representation, but Palestinian family law remains conservative and Fatah has not pushed aggressively for gender equality reforms.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Fatah rhetorically supports women's rights but maintains traditional gender structures in practice.
  • model Claude +3.0 Secular nationalist backing women's representation and quotas, but personal-status law stays religious.
  • model Grok +3.0 Fatah promotes women's political participation through quotas and secular rhetoric but has not fundamentally reformed conservative personal status laws.
  • model GPT +4.0 It officially supports women’s public participation while preserving conservative personal-status constraints.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Supports women's political representation and international conventions like CEDAW, though family status laws remain traditional.
• Islamic Action Front JO Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 7 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Advocates for a strong, unified central state and opposes any federalist fragmentation of Jordan.
  • model Grok -8.0 Advocates a strong unitary central state governed by Islamic principles rather than federal or regional power-sharing.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Supports the unitary nature of the Jordanian state.
  • model GPT -6.0 IAF works within a unitary Jordanian state and does not advocate federal power-sharing.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Advocates for a unitary Jordanian state without regional or sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Claude -3.0 National Islamist party with a unitary, centralist conception of the state.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Supports strong central state with Islamist governance
  • model MiniMax -2.0 IAF does not push federalism; favors a unitary Jordanian state with Islamic orientation.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Strongly centralist, supports Jordanian unitary state with no regional power-sharing
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Charter Party JO Civil liberties provisional ↔ 7 pt -1.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 Prioritizes state security and public order over the expansion of protest and dissent freedoms.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Prioritizes state security and political stability over the expansion of civil liberties.
  • model Grok -3.0 Accepts regulated political space and limits on liberties deemed necessary for national stability and regime security.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Prioritizes state stability and order over the expansion of liberal dissent.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +0.0 Establishment-aligned and centrist, neither strongly expansive nor overtly restrictive.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Mildly supportive of civil liberties but operates within regime constraints on dissent
  • model GPT +1.0 It endorses reform rhetoric but stays close to a state-centered model that accepts limits on dissent.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Moderately supportive of civil liberties but within regime security bounds.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Generally supportive of political reforms and freedoms; positioned as a moderate civic party.
• National Charter Party JO State & religion provisional ↔ 7 pt -1.5
  • model Gemini -4.0 Endorses the status quo where Islam is the state religion and a primary source of moral guidance.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports the state's existing religious framework.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Accepts religious role in state, does not push for secular separation
  • model GPT -3.0 It accepts the monarchy’s religious legitimacy and Islamic public references without advocating theocracy.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Accepts Islam as the state religion and Sharia as a source of legislation, consistent with the constitution.
  • model Claude -1.0 Reflects Jordan's moderate official religiosity, leaning slightly to religious presence.
  • model Grok -1.0 Accepts Islam as the state religion per the constitution while favoring a pragmatic, non-theocratic governance model.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Accepts Islam as state religion but not clerical rule; vaguely secular in practice.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Moderate secular orientation; supports civil state within Jordanian consensus on religion's role.
• Reform Party JO Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 7 pt -5.0
  • model Gemini -9.0 Strongly endorses the centralist unitary state structure of the Jordanian Kingdom.
  • model Grok -7.0 Favors maintaining Jordan's centralized unitary state while allowing limited administrative reforms.
  • model Qwen -7.0 Supports a centralized state structure aligned with tribal and national unity.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Supports the existing unitary state structure.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Centralist, supports unitary Jordanian state structure
  • model GPT -5.0 It appears to operate within ordinary Jordanian unitary-party politics rather than federalist reform.
  • model Claude -3.0 Likely centralist national orientation; identity uncertain.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 No clear federalist agenda; supports central state with local reforms.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 No clear federalist agenda; likely centralist given Jordanian political context.
• Ennahda TN Economic provisional ↔ 7 pt +2.0
  • model Grok -3.0 Ennahda combines Islamic social-welfare orientation with pragmatic acceptance of market mechanisms and structural adjustment programs.
  • model GPT -1.0 Ennahda mixes market acceptance with welfare and state-development language rather than a firm free-market agenda.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Ennahda adopts a mixed economy approach without strong statist or market extremes.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the economic axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Ennahda has adopted moderate market-friendly policies while maintaining some welfare commitments.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Pragmatic mixed-economy position with market-friendly elements plus Islamic-finance-friendly social provisions.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Advocates for a social market economy with moderate state oversight.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Favors market mechanisms with social welfare, similar to Christian democratic parties.
  • model Claude +4.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Pursued business-friendly, market-oriented policy and accepted IMF programs while in power.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The party generally advocates for free-market mechanisms and economic liberalism with social welfare provisions.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +4.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the economic axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
• Ennahda TN West alignment provisional ↔ 7 pt +2.0
  • model Qwen -2.0 Ennahda is critical of Western intervention but pragmatically engages with EU/US for legitimacy.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +0.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the west-alignment axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Ennahda is non-aligned in strategic terms
  • model GPT +1.0 Ennahda has sought workable relations with Europe and the United States while keeping an independent Islamist orientation.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +1.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the west-alignment axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Pragmatically cooperative with EU and US
  • model Claude +3.0 Pragmatically pro-Western, maintaining EU ties and IMF cooperation.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Ennahda maintained pragmatic diplomatic and economic relations with Western nations while in power.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Seeks Western democratic partnership and legitimacy, not anti-Western strategically.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Maintains a strategic and diplomatic alignment with Western partners.
  • model Grok +5.0 While rhetorically critical of Western interference, Ennahda governments actively sought Western economic support, IMF programs, and maintained diplomatic engagement.
• National Rally of Independents MA Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 7 pt +0.5
  • model Gemini -4.0 Accepts and champions the existing political order where absolute executive authority rests with the King rather than elected bodies.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Regime-aligned; no strong commitment to liberal-democratic checks.
  • model GPT -2.0 RNI is electorally dominant but closely aligned with palace-centered governance.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Establishment party that does not actively push for liberal democratic reforms.
  • model Claude +0.0 Technocratic palace-aligned party without a liberal-democratic reform agenda.
  • model Grok +1.0 Supports electoral competition and formal institutions but operates comfortably within and defends the limited liberal democracy centered on monarchical power.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 RNI is loyal to the monarchy and does not push for limits on executive power; mild reformist rhetoric without structural commitment.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 RNI participates in Morocco's hybrid system where real power remains with the monarchy.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Supports the constitutional monarchy and focuses on efficient governance.
• Northern Islamic Movement IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 7 pt +0.5
  • model Kimi -3.0 Islamist organization focused on religious and communal autonomy, not explicit federalism.
  • model Claude -3.0 Islamic-unity frame rather than federalism, with weak salience.
  • model Grok -2.0 Rejects current Jewish state structure; Islamist vision favors unitary religious authority not federal power-sharing.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 Northern Islamic Movement focuses on religious-community autonomy rather than formal federalist positions; mixed/centrist.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Focuses on community rights within a unitary framework rather than federalism.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Focused on Islamic revival rather than federalism; unclear.
  • model GPT +2.0 The movement seeks Arab-Islamic communal autonomy more than a detailed federal program.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Supports more autonomy for the Arab sector.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Rejects the Israeli state framework but advocates for religious and communal autonomy for Arab citizens.

  before · r1 grok -5.0gemini +0.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• United Torah Judaism IL Regime stance provisional ↔ 6 pt +5.5
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Accepts Zionist order but not fully committed to democracy.
  • model Grok +2.0 Theologically anti-Zionist but de facto accepts and participates in state for religious funding and autonomy.
  • model Claude +3.0 Historically non-Zionist but pragmatically loyal to the state.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Non-Zionist but pragmatically participates in and supports Israeli government.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Accepts the state
  • model GPT +6.0 UTJ pragmatically accepts the state order while seeking maximal Haredi exemptions and authority.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 UTJ accepts Israel's existence as a Jewish state and works within its constitutional order, though it rejects its secular elements.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Accepts the state but seeks to infuse it with Haredi religious authority.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Loyal to the state institutions while prioritizing the preservation of its religious status quo.

  before · r1 gemini +0.0grok +7.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Hamas PS Iran posture provisional ↔ 6 pt +7.0
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Hamas has had tactical alignment with Iran, though relations have fluctuated due to Sunni-Shia tensions.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Hamas has received significant financial, military, and political support from Iran, though the relationship has had tensions; it is generally aligned with Iran in the regional resistance axis.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Hamas has been a close ally of Iran since the Syrian civil war
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +7.0 It maintains major strategic and military alignment with Iran despite periodic tensions.
  • model Claude +7.0 Receives Iranian funding and arms within the resistance axis despite the past Syria rift.
  • model Gemma +9.0 Strongly aligned with Iran for financial
  • model Grok +9.0 Hamas maintains a close strategic and military alliance with Iran, receiving funding, weapons, and coordination as a core Axis of Resistance member.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Maintains a close, vital strategic and military alliance with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • model Qwen +10.0 Receives extensive funding, training, and strategic direction from Iran.
• DFLP PS Regional stance provisional ↔ 6 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Aligns with the anti-normalization framework and supports resistance against Israeli occupation, rejecting regional normalization deals.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Aligns with the resistance camp and opposes normalization with Israel.
  • model Claude -7.0 Rejectionist-left tradition, anti-normalization and aligned with the resistance camp.
  • model GPT -6.0 It remains aligned with armed-resistance and anti-normalization politics more than regional accommodation.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok -4.0 DFLP maintains a resistance heritage within the PLO but has engaged with political processes and negotiated frameworks more than hardline rejectionists.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 DFLP rejects normalization but is less aligned with Iran-led Axis than Hamas; leans resistance with some pragmatism.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Part of the PLO's negotiated approach but maintains leftist anti-imperialist rhetoric.
  • model Kimi -2.0 DFLP is based in Syria and has received Syrian support, placing it somewhat closer to the resistance camp, though it has historically been more pragmatic and supported negotiation frameworks.
• Islamic Action Front JO Economic provisional ↔ 6 pt -1.0
  • model Kimi -4.0 Favors state-led welfare and social justice over free market, though not fully communist
  • model Gemma -3.0 Favors social justice and state-led welfare over neoliberal market mechanisms.
  • model Grok -3.0 Supports Islamic economics blending private enterprise with state-guided social justice, zakat, and anti-usury measures rather than pure market liberalism.
  • model GPT -3.0 Its platform mixes Islamic social justice and welfare with acceptance of private enterprise.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Mixed but leans statist due to Islamist social justice rhetoric and anti-usury regulation.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Balances support for private enterprise with an Islamist emphasis on social welfare and charity.
  • model Claude +1.0 Mixed model blending market activity with social welfare and zakat-style redistribution.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Supports a market economy with Islamic-finance leanings and a social safety net; mild market-friendly overall.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Supports private market mechanisms while advocating for Islamic welfare and state protection of strategic assets.
• Jordanian Communist Party JO Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 6 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Adheres to traditional leftist principles favoring a highly centralized unitary state model.
  • model Grok -7.0 Favors a strong centralized unitary state to enact socialist transformation, consistent with Marxist democratic centralism.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Generally favors a unitary state structure.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Maintains a traditional communist preference for a strong, centralized unitary state.
  • model GPT -5.0 It generally favors a unified centralized state rather than regional or sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Claude -3.0 Centralist, unitary-state outlook typical of Arab communist parties.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Supports unitary state, no particular federalist agenda in Jordanian context
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Traditionally centralist
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Historically centralist; Jordanian communists favor a unitary state with class-based rather than regional representation.
• Jordanian Communist Party JO West alignment provisional ↔ 6 pt -7.0
  • model Gemma -10.0 Strongly anti-imperialist and opposed to Western strategic alignment.
  • model Gemini -10.0 Firmly opposes strategic and security alignment with the United States and Western blocs.
  • model GPT -8.0 Its anti-imperialist line is hostile to US-led Western strategic alignment.
  • model Grok -8.0 Traditional communist hostility to Western imperialism, capitalism, and strategic alliances with the US and NATO powers.
  • model Claude -7.0 Anti-Western, anti-imperialist strategic posture.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Anti-Western, anti-imperialist, opposed to US and NATO strategic alignment
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Anti-imperialist
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Maintains a traditional leftist, anti-imperialist stance against Western geopolitical dominance.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Historically anti-Western and anti-imperialist; current posture more nuanced but still broadly critical of US alignment.
• Progressive Socialist Party LB Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 6 pt +4.0
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +2.0 Founded with explicit pan-Arab socialist ideology; retains some rhetorical and identity residue though practical politics now more Lebanon- and Druze-focused.
  • model Kimi +3.0 PSP has Arab nationalist roots (Kamal Jumblatt) and emphasizes Lebanon's Arab identity; however, under Walid and now Taymour it has become more pragmatic and particularist, scoring moderately positive.
  • model Claude +3.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds The founding charter is robustly Arab-nationalist (a secular democratic Arab union) — note: the modern Jumblatt-era party is far more Lebanese-particularist than this founding doctrine.
  • model GPT +4.0 It retains Arabist and left-nationalist themes alongside Druze community politics.
  • model Qwen +5.0 PSP retains pan-Arab sympathies from its Nasserist origins, though less emphasized under Taymour Jumblatt.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Strongly identifies with pan-Arab solidarity and nationalist traditions.
  • model Gemini +6.0 PSP maintains strong ideological roots in pan-Arab solidarity and anti-normalization politics.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Founded by Kamal Jumblatt in the Nasserist/Arab socialist tradition
• Authenticity and Modernity Party MA Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 6 pt +0.0
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Loyal to the monarchy and has not pushed for stronger liberal-democratic checks on executive power.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Accepts and champions the existing political order where absolute executive authority rests with the King rather than elected bodies.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Operates within the monarchical system without strongly pushing for liberal democratic checks.
  • model GPT -1.0 PAM accepts elections but is closely tied to palace-centered political management.
  • model Claude -1.0 Palace-engineered party seen as managing rather than deepening genuine democratic competition.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 PAM is loyal to the monarchical order and does not champion liberal-democratic constraints on royal prerogative; mild reformist rhetoric but no structural push.
  • model Grok +2.0 Defends the existing constitutional monarchy with limited liberal checks; participates in formal democracy without strong pressure for deeper judicial or executive constraints.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 PAM participates in elections but functions as a palace-backed party in a system with limited democratic checks.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Supports the constitutional framework but prioritizes regime stability over deep liberal checks.
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ Regional stance provisional ↔ 6 pt +1.0
  • model Gemma -2.0 Closer to Iran's sphere than the KDP
  • model MiniMax -2.0 PUK has long historical ties to Iran and the PFLP, placing it closer to the anti-normalization pole, but it pragmatically engages with Western and Gulf states.
  • model GPT -2.0 Its closer ties to Iran pull it somewhat toward the resistance side, though it remains pragmatic.
  • model Gemini -2.0 The PUK is politically aligned with Baghdad and maintains close ties with Iran, leaning slightly away from regional normalization.
  • model Kimi +1.0 PUK maintains pragmatic ties with Iran (unlike KDP) while also engaging with West; more balanced regional posture
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 PUK has ties to Iran but also to Western powers; mixed regional posture.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Maintains closer ties to Iran than the KDP but primarily seeks regional stability and KRG interests over resistance ideology.
  • model Claude +2.0 Closer to Iran than the KDP but pursues its aims through negotiation, not armed resistance.
  • model Grok +4.0 PUK maintains pragmatic ties with Iran and has been more accommodating to Iranian influence in Iraq than KDP, while still engaging Western actors for stability.
• Socialist Forces Front DZ Regional stance provisional ↔ 6 pt +0.0
  • model MiniMax -3.0 FFS opposes normalization with Israel and supports Palestinian rights but rejects armed-resistance maximalism.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The FFS opposes normalization with Israel but emphasizes international law and diplomacy over armed resistance blocs.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 FFS supports Palestinian rights but not the armed resistance axis; leans toward diplomatic solutions.
  • model Grok -1.0 Pro-Palestinian and critical of normalization but prioritizes negotiated solutions and domestic democratic change over armed regional axes.
  • model Claude +0.0 No strong resistance alignment; diplomacy-oriented and ambiguous.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Leans toward negotiated settlement; less resistance-aligned.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +3.0 Supports negotiated peace; critical of militarized 'resistance' models.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Favors diplomatic solutions and stability over alignment with armed resistance.
• Islamic Salvation Front DZ Economic provisional ↔ 6 pt -3.0
  • model Kimi -5.0 Favored state-directed economy with Islamic welfare orientation.
  • model Grok -5.0 Promoted Islamic economics with social welfare elements and skepticism toward unchecked markets.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Mixed; rhetorically anti-capitalist but not fully statist—leaning interventionist.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 FIS mixed Islamically framed social welfare with selective free-market rhetoric
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 FIS favored mixed economy with social justice
  • model Gemma -2.0 Favors social justice and welfare
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +1.0 FIS ideology supports private commerce and market mechanisms within a framework of Islamic law and social welfare.
  • model Claude +1.0 Populist with a merchant base, broadly market-friendly with Islamic welfare.
• General People's Congress YE Traditionalism vs modernization provisional ↔ 6 pt +0.0
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 GPC rhetorically modern but delivered little reform; essentially traditionalist.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Relies on traditional tribal patronage but supports basic state modernization and infrastructure.
  • model Kimi -2.0 GPC under Saleh pursued limited institutional modernization while maintaining conservative social structures and tribal politics.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 GPC mixed limited institutional modernization (oil economy, urbanization) with preservation of tribal and customary authority; net effect is mildly traditionalist.
  • model Claude +0.0 Mixes modernizing rhetoric with traditionalist patronage practice.
  • model Gemma +0.0 They are pragmatic and accept technical modernization while remaining socially conservative.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is pragmatic and state-modernizing in style but socially conservative.
  • model Grok +2.0 The GPC pursued infrastructure, education expansion, and limited economic modernization while remaining cautious on deep social or institutional liberal reforms.
  • model Gemini +3.0 The GPC supports state-led institutional modernization, economic development, and technological integration while respecting traditional social structures.
• General People's Congress YE Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 6 pt +2.5
  • model Qwen +0.0 Blends Yemeni nationalist particularism with occasional pan-Arab anti-imperialist rhetoric.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 GPC used pan-Arab slogans under Saleh but primarily Yemeni nationalist/clientelist.
  • model Kimi +2.0 GPC used Arab nationalist rhetoric under Saleh but was primarily a patronage-based particularist party serving regime interests.
  • model Claude +2.0 Mild Arab-nationalist rhetoric over a fundamentally Yemen-first patronage identity.
  • model Grok +2.0 While invoking Arab nationalist rhetoric and seeking Arab unity in principle, the GPC functioned primarily as a pragmatic big-tent Yemeni nationalist party.
  • model GPT +3.0 It retains republican Arab-nationalist language while operating mainly as a Yemeni state party.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 GPC emerged from the Yemeni nationalist and Nasserist tradition and has consistently invoked pan-Arab solidarity as a core framing of its politics.
  • model Gemini +5.0 The GPC strongly identifies with Arab nationalist solidarity and frames its rhetoric around regional Arab causes.
  • model Gemma +6.0 They have strong historical roots in Arab nationalist traditions.
• Yemeni Socialist Party YE Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 6 pt +4.0
  • model MiniMax +1.0 YSP combines strong southern-Yemeni particularism with pan-Arab leftist internationalism, leaving the net frame near center but tilted particularist in practice.
  • model Claude +2.0 Arab-leftist solidarity tempered by southern particularism.
  • model GPT +2.0 It retains some Arab-left solidarity but is also shaped by southern Yemeni particularism.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The YSP combines its leftist internationalism with traditional Arab solidarity and progressive pan-Arab cooperation.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 YSP supported pan-Arab socialism historically; now more balanced but still leans pan-Arab.
  • model Gemma +4.0 They have a history of alignment with Arab socialist and pan-Arab traditions.
  • model Kimi +5.0 YSP has strong pan-Arab and leftist internationalist roots, though its primary focus has shifted to southern Yemeni interests post-unification.
  • model Grok +6.0 Rooted in Arab socialist traditions of the former PDRY, the YSP continues to emphasize pan-Arab solidarity alongside southern Yemeni concerns.
  • prior Author baseline +7.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Rooted in Nasserist and pan-Arab socialist traditions rather than Yemeni tribal particularism.
• PFLP PS Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 5 pt +6.0
  • model MiniMax +4.0 PFLP retains significant pan-Arab and Marxist internationalist framing in its ideology.
  • model Kimi +4.0 PFLP was founded with strong pan-Arab Nasserist and Marxist orientation, and while it has become more Palestinian-focused, it retains significant pan-Arab solidarity framing in its rhetoric and alliances.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +5.0 PFLP was founded with a strong pan-Arab revolutionary vision linking Palestinian struggle to broader Arab anti-imperialist and socialist transformation.
  • model Gemini +6.0 Retains its historic Arab nationalist roots, framing the Palestinian struggle within a broader pan-Arab socialist revolution.
  • model Claude +6.0 Rooted in the Arab Nationalist Movement with a strong pan-Arab framing.
  • model GPT +8.0 It has a strong Arab-nationalist and anti-imperialist framework alongside Palestinian liberation.
  • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly frames its struggle within a pan-Arab and anti-imperialist movement.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Deeply rooted in secular pan-Arab nationalism and solidarity.
• Yisrael Beiteinu IL Civil liberties provisional ↔ 5 pt +0.5
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Yisrael Beiteinu restricts civil liberties for non-Jews/Arabs but is secular on Jewish internal freedoms; mixed restrictive profile.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Occasional calls to restrict liberties for security reasons.
  • model Claude +0.0 Secular liberties at home but security-restrictive measures toward Arabs.
  • model Gemini +0.0 Balances support for secular individual liberties with demands for restrictive loyalty laws regarding minorities.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is secular on domestic liberties but hawkish and exclusionary toward Arab political claims.
  • model Grok +2.0 Security hawk supports restrictive measures on hostile populations and expression.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Secular but nationalist, supporting civil liberties for citizens but restricting them for security opponents.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Mixed; nationalist but not systematically repressive.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Secular but nationalist; supports some liberties while restricting Arab dissent.

  before · r1 gemini -7.0grok +3.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY State & religion provisional ↔ 4 pt -8.0
  • model Gemini -10.0 HTS completely rejects secular governance, aiming to establish a state governed entirely by Islamic religious law.
  • model DeepSeek -10.0 Seeks to establish rule by Islamic law with no separation of religion and state.
  • model Qwen -10.0 Seeks to establish and enforce a strict interpretation of Islamic law as the basis of state and governance.
  • model Gemma -10.0 Advocates for a state entirely governed by religious (Sharia) law.
  • model GPT -8.0 It favors Islamic authority and religious norms in state and law.
  • model Kimi -8.0 The March 2025 constitutional declaration establishes Islamic jurisprudence as the primary source of legislation and Islam as the religion of the president, rejecting secular separation.
  • prior Author baseline -7.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -7.0 Seeks Islamic governance with sharia as a main legal source, softened from jihadist maximalism.
  • model Grok -6.0 HTS promotes Islamic law as central to state governance and implemented Sharia based courts and regulations in controlled areas.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 HTS governance incorporates sharia-derived provisions in family and personal status law
• El Insaf (Equity Party) MR Regional stance provisional ↔ 4 pt +4.0
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Initially normalized with Israel and pursues Gulf/regional stability ties
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Mauritania under El Insaf is not part of the Axis of Resistance and has oscillated between Arab League consensus and cautious Gulf alignment.
  • model GPT +2.0 It is anti-normalization rhetorically on Palestine but generally pragmatic and stability-oriented in regional diplomacy.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +4.0 Pursues stability and ties with the Gulf and West rather than the Iran-led resistance axis.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The party aligns Mauritania with mainstream Arab League and Gulf stability policies, favoring diplomatic settlement over armed resistance.
  • model Kimi +5.0 El Insaf pursues regional stability through diplomatic engagement rather than armed resistance alignment.
  • model Grok +5.0 Government pursues pragmatic stability Western security partnerships and diplomatic Palestine support without resistance axis or armed anti-normalization alignment.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Aligned with the government's preference for diplomatic stability and state-to-state negotiation.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Prioritizes regional stability and diplomatic engagement over alignment with the Axis of Resistance.