Tayyar.

All axes · issue

Regional stance

الموقف الإقليمي

Posture toward the regional order: the "Axis of Resistance" (Iran–Hezbollah–Hamas–Houthis, anti-normalization, armed struggle) at the negative pole vs the normalization / stability camp (Abraham Accords, Gulf–Israel détente, negotiated settlement) at the positive pole. Pro-Palestinian sympathy ALONE does not make an actor "resistance" — score toward resistance (−) only for alignment with armed-resistance or anti-normalization politics; an actor that pursues its regional aims THROUGH negotiation and normalization leans positive (+).

Scoring rubric

How positions are calibrated on this axis. The conventions guide the scorer; anchored examples show how known MENA actors land at -10, -5, 0, +5, +10.

Score the actor's position on the regional security architecture: aligned with the Iran-led "axis of resistance" (high negative) versus aligned with the Saudi/Emirati-led pro-Western Arab consensus (high positive). A neutral score (around 0) captures actors with no clear regional alignment or genuinely non-aligned positions. Note: pan-Arab solidarity has its own axis.

  • -10
    Iran-aligned axis of resistance
    Houthis, Hezbollah, PFLP
  • -5
    Sympathetic to resistance posture
    State of Law Iraq, PIJ
  • +0
    Non-aligned or ambivalent
    Many parties in non-frontline states
  • +5
    Aligned with Saudi/Emirati Sunni consensus
    Islah Yemen, Most Maghreb ruling parties
  • +10
    Active pro-normalization, anti-Iran
    Religious Zionism, Likud
Parties scored
82
Mean
-0.28
Median
+0.25
Std dev
5.04
Range
-10.0 → 7.0

Ranking

All parties scored on this axis, sorted from most Stability/normalization to most Resistance/maximalist.

Resistance/maximalist ← → Stability/normalization

-10-5+0+5+10
  1. 1 National Unity IL
    +7.0
  2. 2 National Rally of Independents MA
    +7.0
  3. 3 Mostaqbal Watan EG
    +7.0
  4. 4 Yesh Atid IL
    +7.0
  5. 5 Southern Transitional Council YE
    +6.0
  6. 6 Yisrael Beiteinu IL
    +6.0
  7. 7 Free Egyptians Party EG
    +6.0
  8. 8 Meretz IL
    +6.0
  9. 9 Authenticity and Modernity Party MA
    +6.0
  10. 10 Kataeb Party LB
    +6.0
  11. 11 Likud IL
    +6.0
  12. 12 Lebanese Forces LB
    +6.0
  13. 13 The Democrats IL
    +5.5
  14. 14 Kurdistan Democratic Party IQ
    +5.5
  15. 15 National Charter Party JO
    +5.5
  16. 16 New Hope IL
    +5.0
  17. 17 Syrian National Coalition SY
    +5.0
  18. 18 Shas IL
    +4.5
  19. 19 Israeli Labor Party IL
    +4.5
  20. 20 New Wafd Party EG
    +4.0
  21. 21 Religious Zionism Party IL
    +4.0
  22. 22 El Insaf (Equity Party) MR
    +4.0
  23. 23 Istiqlal Party MA
    +4.0
  24. 24 Long Live Tunisia TN
    +4.0
  25. 25 National Forces Alliance LY
    +4.0
  26. 26 Islamic Asalah Society BH
    +4.0
  27. 27 United Torah Judaism IL
    +4.0
  28. 28 Fatah PS
    +3.5
  29. 29 Otzma Yehudit IL
    +3.0
  30. 30 Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH
    +3.0
  31. 31 Free Destourian Party TN
    +3.0
  32. 32 Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG
    +3.0
  33. 33 Democratic Unionist Party SD
    +2.5
  34. 34 Reform Party JO
    +2.5
  35. 35 General People's Congress YE
    +2.5
  36. 36 National Umma Party SD
    +2.0
  37. 37 Ra'am (United Arab List) IL
    +2.0
  38. 38 Yemeni Socialist Party YE
    +1.0
  39. 39 Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ
    +1.0
  40. 40 Progressive Socialist Party LB
    +1.0
  41. 41 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY
    +0.5
  42. 42 Socialist Forces Front DZ
    +0.0
  43. 43 Socialist Union of Popular Forces MA
    +0.0
  44. 44 Mubadara PS
    -0.5
  45. 45 Nour Party EG
    -0.5
  46. 46 Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE
    -1.0
  47. 47 National Wisdom Movement IQ
    -2.0
  48. 48 Free Patriotic Movement LB
    -3.0
  49. 49 Justice and Development Party MA
    -3.0
  50. 50 National Liberation Front DZ
    -3.0
  51. 51 Sairoon Alliance IQ
    -3.0
  52. 52 Union of Forces of Progress MR
    -3.0
  53. 53 Palestinian People's Party PS
    -3.0
  54. 54 Democratic National Rally DZ
    -3.5
  55. 55 Ennahda TN
    -4.0
  56. 56 Ta'al IL
    -4.0
  57. 57 Justice and Construction Party LY
    -4.0
  58. 58 DFLP PS
    -4.0
  59. 59 Sudanese Communist Party SD
    -4.5
  60. 60 Movement of Society for Peace DZ
    -4.5
  61. 61 Freedom and Justice Party EG
    -4.5
  62. 62 Hadash IL
    -4.5
  63. 63 Noam IL
    -5.0
  64. 64 Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH
    -5.0
  65. 65 State of Law Coalition IQ
    -5.0
  66. 66 Tagammu Party EG
    -5.0
  67. 67 Balad IL
    -5.5
  68. 68 National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR
    -5.5
  69. 69 Jordanian Communist Party JO
    -5.8
  70. 70 Workers' Party DZ
    -6.0
  71. 71 People's Movement TN
    -6.0
  72. 72 Amal Movement LB
    -6.0
  73. 73 Northern Islamic Movement IL
    -6.0
  74. 74 Tunisian Workers Party TN
    -7.0
  75. 75 Islamic Action Front JO
    -7.0
  76. 76 Ba'ath Party (Syria) SY
    -8.0
  77. 77 Islamic Salvation Front DZ
    -8.0
  78. 78 PFLP PS
    -8.0
  79. 79 Hamas PS
    -9.0
  80. 80 Hezbollah LB
    -9.8
  81. 81 Ansar Allah (Houthis) YE
    -10.0
  82. 82 Palestinian Islamic Jihad PS
    -10.0

Score distribution

Histogram of scores across all 82 parties. Mean -0.28, median +0.25, σ 5.04. Multi-modal distributions point to genuine cleavages on this axis; unimodal narrow ones to consensus.

-10: 3 parties -9: 1 party -8: 3 parties -7: 2 parties -6: 5 parties -5: 6 parties 6 -4: 8 parties 8 -3: 7 parties 7 -2: 1 party -1: 1 party +0: 4 parties +1: 4 parties +2: 2 parties +3: 7 parties 7 +4: 9 parties 9 +5: 4 parties +6: 11 parties 11 +7: 4 parties −10 0 +10

Resistance/maximalist Stability/normalization

By country

Mean score per country.

  • Morocco 5 parties
    +2.80
  • Israel 18 parties
    +2.19
  • Egypt 7 parties
    +1.43
  • Bahrain 3 parties
    +0.67
  • Sudan 3 parties
    +0.00
  • Libya 2 parties
    +0.00
  • Yemen 5 parties
    -0.30
  • Iraq 5 parties
    -0.70
  • Syria 3 parties
    -0.83
  • Lebanon 6 parties
    -0.96
  • Jordan 4 parties
    -1.19
  • Mauritania 3 parties
    -1.50
  • Tunisia 5 parties
    -2.00
  • Algeria 6 parties
    -4.17
  • Palestine 7 parties
    -4.43

Cross-axis correlations

How parties' scores on this axis covary with their scores on each other axis. Pearson r runs from −1 (perfect inverse) to +1 (perfect identity); 0 means independent. Computed across all parties scored on both axes (n shown per row). Strong correlations expose which axes are really measuring the same cleavage in the data; near-zero values are the ones with the most additional explanatory power.

Other axes

Pick any axis in the table above, or combine two on the compass.