transparency · the panel in full

Rater panel

Every published position is the median of a rater panel (see methodology §5). This page shows the panel with nothing hidden: for each cell where two or more raters scored, where each rater landed on the −10…+10 scale, the synthesised median, and the reasoning behind each score. Contested cells — where raters diverge sharply — are surfaced first.

Showing the 120 least-settled of 1004 cells. Pick a country to see every one. Single-rater cells (priors awaiting a second rater) are left out; they carry one score and appear on each entity's own page.

published median r2 panel rater r1 "before" (no definitions, excluded) priormodelre-coder

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Regime stance contested ↔ 19 pt -1.0
  • model Gemma -10.0 Exists specifically to overthrow the current Syrian constitutional order.
  • model Gemini -10.0 As an insurgent group, HTS is fully dedicated to overthrowing and replacing Syria's existing constitutional order.
  • model Qwen -10.0 Formed explicitly to overthrow the Assad regime and remains its most potent armed opponent.
  • model Grok -9.0 HTS directly overthrew the Ba'ath Assad regime in 2024 and rejects the legitimacy of the old constitutional political order.
  • model DeepSeek -9.0 Explicitly seeks to overthrow the Syrian Ba'athist republic and replace it with an Islamic state.
  • model Claude +7.0 Now the incumbent building and defending the new constitutional order it founded.
  • model GPT +8.0 As the dominant new authority, it defends the emerging post-Assad governing order.
  • model MiniMax +8.0 As of 2026 HTS is the de facto ruling authority of Syria and is building a new foundational order
  • model Kimi +8.0 HTS overthrew the Assad regime and now constitutes the new governing authority, defending its own constitutional order through the March 2025 transitional framework.
  • prior Author baseline +9.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Otzma Yehudit IL Regional stance contested ↔ 17 pt +3.0
  • prior Author baseline -8.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Maximalist and generally hostile to regional compromises.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Rejects regional diplomatic compromises, prioritizing unilateral military power over normalization stability.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Hardline anti-Arab but not explicitly aligned with resistance axis; more focused on internal Jewish supremacy.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Otzma Yehudit broadly supports normalization with anti-Iran Arab states but rejects any Palestinian accommodation; mild positive on regional stance.
  • model Claude +4.0 Maximalist on Palestinians but accepts Gulf normalization.
  • model Grok +4.0 Hawkish against resistance axis; supports normalization only if it strengthens Jewish control.
  • model GPT +5.0 It supports anti-Iran regional alignment but is skeptical of concessions tied to normalization.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-normalization with Gulf states.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Extreme hawkish posture against the resistance axis.

  before · r1 gemini -9.0grok -6.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Long Live Tunisia TN Regime stance contested ↔ 16 pt +0.0
  • model Gemma -6.0 Rejects the current order and defends the post-2011 democratic framework.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Oppositional to post-2011 order but not seeking violent overthrow.
  • model Grok -4.0 Originally a pillar of the post-revolutionary constitutional order, Tahya Tounes has become critical of Saied's suspension of democratic institutions and rule by decree.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The party has been largely sidelined by Kais Saied's concentration of power and remains quietly critical.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Originated as Chahed's pro-government party within the post-2011 order; now marginalized under Saied but still formally accepts republican constitutional framework.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Loyal to 2014 constitutional order, opposed to Saied's authoritarian constitutional changes.
  • model Claude +4.0 Loyal to the 2014 democratic constitutional order.
  • model GPT +7.0 It accepts and defends Tunisia's republican constitutional order.
  • model Qwen +10.0 Fully supports and embodies the current post-2022 constitutional order.
• Free Destourian Party TN Regime stance contested ↔ 16 pt +0.0
  • model Qwen -8.0 Vehemently opposes post-2011 order and especially Saied’s 2022 constitution; wants restoration of old regime ethos.
  • model Gemini -8.0 The PDL strongly opposes Kais Saied's regime for sidelining and persecuting its leadership.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Proposes Third Republic with new constitution, rejecting both Saied's and 2014 orders.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 It has been critical of the post-2011 order but operates within it; mildly anti-regime.
  • model Claude +0.0 Rejects both the post-2011 order and Saied's project, wanting a restored old Destourian state.
  • model Grok +1.0 PDL's stance has evolved from tactical support for Saied's anti-Islamist moves to opposition against unchecked presidential authoritarianism while remaining loyal to the republican state framework.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Defended Ben Ali-era strong-republican order and aligned with Saied's restoration of executive authority.
  • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly supports the current state order and leadership.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY West alignment contested ↔ 15 pt -0.5
  • model Qwen -10.0 Originated from Al-Qaeda and maintains a fundamentally hostile ideological posture toward the West.
  • model Gemma -9.0 Strategically hostile toward Western powers.
  • model DeepSeek -8.0 Designated terrorist group by US/EU; hostile to Western powers and refuses diplomatic engagement.
  • model Gemini -6.0 HTS remains ideologically anti-Western and is designated as a terrorist group, despite recent efforts to signal pragmatic non-hostility.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 It seeks Western engagement and sanctions relief but is not strategically pro-Western.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Post-2024 HTS has engaged strategically with the US and EU on counterterrorism
  • model Grok +4.0 HTS leadership engages Western capitals for recognition and sanctions relief showing pragmatic pro-engagement strategic posture.
  • model Claude +5.0 Sharply reoriented toward the West, winning sanctions relief and delisting through engagement.
  • model Kimi +5.0 HTS has strategically pivoted toward Western engagement, seeking sanctions relief, diplomatic normalization, and was removed from US and UN terror lists in 2025.
• Hezbollah LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 15 pt -3.5
  • model Qwen -9.0 Hezbollah strongly supports Lebanon’s sectarian consociational system as it entrenches Shia political power.
  • model Grok -8.0 Strongly opposes federalism or decentralization that would create autonomous regions and potentially dilute its cross-Lebanon influence and demographic leverage in central decisions.
  • model Gemini -8.0 Hezbollah strictly rejects federalism or partition, viewing it as a threat to national unity and resistance.
  • model Claude -5.0 Centralist; opposes federalism or partition that would fragment the state it dominates.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally supports a unitary state
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Prefers strong central state with Shia influence; opposes federalism.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Hezbollah accepts the existing confessional system to defend Shia rights but ideologically prefers a strong central Islamic state model.
  • model GPT +2.0 Hezbollah accepts Lebanon’s power sharing system while rejecting partition or full federalism.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Hezbollah operates as a state-within-a-state in Shia areas and benefits from power-sharing arrangements; while not explicitly federalist, its de facto autonomy and sectarian base push it toward the federalist pole.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Ennahda TN Regime stance contested ↔ 15 pt -4.5
  • model Gemini -9.0 Ennahda strongly opposes the current regime of Kais Saied, which has jailed its leaders and banned its activities.
  • model Grok -8.0 By 2026 Ennahda leaders are largely imprisoned or exiled and the party actively rejects Saied's presidential strongman regime and suspended democratic institutions.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly opposes the current foundational order established by Kais Saied.
  • prior Author baseline -6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Ennahda opposes the post-2021 constitutional order under President Saied as authoritarian.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Opposes Kais Saied's constitutional order, supports pre-2021 democratic framework.
  • model Claude +4.0 Defends the 2014 democratic-republican constitutional order against Saied's restructuring.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Accepted post-2011 republican constitutional order and contested within it rather than seeking to overthrow it.
  • model GPT +6.0 Ennahda works within the Tunisian republican constitutional order rather than rejecting the state.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Ennahda participates within Tunisia’s post-2011 constitutional order and seeks reform
• Progressive Socialist Party LB Sectarian power-sharing contested ↔ 15 pt -3.0
  • model Qwen -8.0 PSP is a sectarian party representing Druze interests within Lebanon’s confessional system.
  • model Kimi -5.0 PSP operates as a Druze sectarian party despite its historical rhetoric against confessionalism; it is widely perceived as serving Druze communal interests within the quota system, not pursuing a post-sectarian civic state.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Rhetorically advocates for a civic state
  • model GPT -4.0 It speaks civic language but remains anchored in Druze communal leadership.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 PSP rhetorically supports abolishing confessionalism but in practice operates within Druze communal politics and the system.
  • model Claude +2.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds A Druze confessional party benefiting from quotas despite secular-state rhetoric.
  • model Grok +2.0 Longstanding advocate for civil state, civil marriage, and de-sectarianization; participates in consociational system but pushes to transcend it.
  • model Gemini +7.0 PSP's official platform strictly advocates for the total abolition of political sectarianism and quotas.
• People's Movement TN Regime stance contested ↔ 15 pt -3.5
  • model Qwen -7.0 Opposes Saied’s constitutional changes and authoritarian turn.
  • model Grok -6.0 People's Movement positions itself as a consistent opponent of authoritarian rule whether under Ben Ali, Ennahda-influenced coalitions, or Saied's personalist regime.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Generally opposes the established political elites.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Oppositional to the current order but within republican framework.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Opposed Bourguibist and Ben Ali orders; critical of post-2011 order as well from the radical-left.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Opposes Saied's authoritarian constitutional order, supports democratic framework.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +5.0 Supports the current Saied-era political order.
  • model GPT +6.0 It supports a strong Tunisian republican state and has backed the current constitutional order.
  • model Gemini +8.0 The party is one of the principal political supporters of President Kais Saied's administration.
• Palestinian Islamic Jihad PS Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 15 pt -2.5
  • model Grok -6.0 PIJ operates within a distinctly Islamist framework that supersedes secular pan-Arab nationalist traditions.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Prioritizes pan-Islamic solidarity and Palestinian national jihad over secular pan-Arab political frameworks.
  • model Kimi -4.0 PIJ is an Islamist organization focused on Palestinian jihad; it has limited pan-Arab orientation and prioritizes Islamist and Palestinian particularist goals over Arab nationalism.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 PIJ frames its politics in Islamist and Palestinian-nationalist terms
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 PIJ focuses on Islamic umma rather than pan-Arabism, but uses anti-normalization rhetoric.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Prioritizes pan-Islamism over secular pan-Arab nationalism.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Frames struggle within a broader Islamic/Arab context but focuses on Palestinian goals.
  • model Claude +3.0 Frames the cause in pan-Islamic rather than strict nation-first terms.
  • model GPT +4.0 It uses Arab and Islamic resistance language, though its ideology is more Islamist than pan-Arab.
  • prior Author baseline +9.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Free Destourian Party TN Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 14 pt -3.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 The party is firmly Tunisian nationalist (Bourguibist) and rejects pan-Arab political ideologies.
  • model Grok -8.0 The party's Bourguibist roots emphasize Tunisian national identity and state-building over pan-Arab solidarity or regional ideological projects.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Explicitly Tunisian nationalist, rejecting pan-Arabism in favor of nation-state-first frame.
  • model Claude -4.0 Bourguibist Tunisia-first particularism rather than Arab nationalism.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Primarily Tunisian nationalist
  • model Gemma +3.0 Balances Tunisian nationalism with a degree of Pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Rooted in Nasserist/Baathist-inspired Arab nationalism, though focused primarily on Tunisia.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Inherits Bourguibist/Nasserist pan-Arab nationalist tradition; rhetorically Arab-solidarist.
• Ba'ath Party (Syria) SY Sectarian power-sharing contested ↔ 14 pt -2.0
  • model GPT -6.0 Despite civic-secular rhetoric, its rule relied heavily on Alawite-linked security networks.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Claims civic nationalism but relies on Alawite sectarian networks for power.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Officially secular
  • model Kimi -4.0 Officially post-sectarian and civic, but in practice the party became a vehicle for Alawite network dominance, blurring the line between civic and sectarian governance.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Ba'ath ideology is officially civic and pan-Arab post-sectarian
  • model Grok +6.0 Ba'ath promoted secular Arab civic nationalism and unitary state opposing formal sectarian quotas or consociational arrangements.
  • model Claude +6.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Officially secular civic-Arab nationalism rejecting confessional quotas, despite Alawite-network practice.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Officially champions a secular pan-Arab civic state and rejects formal sectarian power-sharing despite informal sectarian reliance.
  • model Gemini +8.0 The party's official ideology strictly rejects sectarian quotas or confessional governance, advocating for a non-sectarian civic state.
• Tagammu Party EG Regime stance contested ↔ 14 pt +1.5
  • model Gemma -6.0 Critical of the current foundational order and regime.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Official opposition party, critical of both Sadat's infitah and Sisi's military rule.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Leftist opposition; critical of regime but accepts republican order.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Critical of current regime but accepts republican constitutional order; populist opposition within system.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Ambiguous: historically reconciled with Mubarak, now marginal; nominally opposition but limited actual resistance.
  • model Grok +2.0 Accepts republican order in principle as defender of 1952 gains but maintains critical reformist stance toward specific regime policies and directions.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +4.0 It accepts the republic and has often aligned with the state against Islamist opposition.
  • model Claude +5.0 Loyal to the order, historically cooperative and anti-Islamist.
  • model Gemini +8.0 It strongly supports the post-2013 political order, viewing it as a vital defense against the threat of political Islam.
• Sudanese Communist Party SD Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 14 pt +2.5
  • model Grok -7.0 Sudanese-focused nationalist communism with internationalist outlook rather than pan-Arab particularism.
  • model Gemini -5.0 The SCP rejects pan-Arabism in favor of a class-based internationalist and particularist Sudanese focus.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Focuses on Sudanese particularism and class struggle rather than pan-Arab nationalist solidarity.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Internationalist rather than pan-Arab; skeptical of bourgeois Arab nationalism.
  • model Claude +2.0 Its anti-imperialist, anti-normalization line aligns loosely with the pan-Arab pole, though class internationalism, not Arabism, drives it.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Maintains Arab solidarity within internationalist communist framework.
  • model GPT +3.0 It supports Arab anti-imperialist causes but is more socialist-internationalist than strictly pan-Arab nationalist.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 SCP frames its politics through class-based internationalism and pan-Arab anti-imperialism, with a strong Arab-cause dimension alongside broader leftist solidarity.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Frames its struggle within a broader anti-imperialist Arab and African solidarity.
• People's Movement TN Liberal democracy contested ↔ 13 pt +1.5
  • model Gemini -7.0 The party enthusiastically backed Kais Saied's suspension of parliament and rejection of liberal democratic checks.
  • model GPT -6.0 Its backing for Saied's authoritarian turn places it low on liberal-democratic checks and pluralism.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Prefers a populist executive over liberal-democratic constraints.
  • model Claude -4.0 Endorsed Saied's 2021 power grab, weak on liberal-democratic checks.
  • model Grok +1.0 While participating in elections and defending republican institutions, the party prioritizes substantive social and national sovereignty outcomes over procedural liberal checks and balances.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Formally democratic but Nasserist/Ba'athist legacy gives weaker liberal-democratic commitments.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Generally supports democratic processes but with left-wing populist tendencies.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Part of democratic opposition coalition; supports pluralism and institutional checks.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Democratic left party committed to liberal democratic institutions and checks.
• Amal Movement LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 13 pt -3.5
  • model Qwen -8.0 Amal supports Lebanon's consociational system and sectarian power-sharing, opposing federalism or decentralization.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Amal strongly opposes federalism, advocating for a strong unified central state.
  • model Grok -7.0 Amal defends the unitary central state with sectarian power-sharing under Taif and opposes federal or strong decentralization proposals that could reduce its national influence.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Favors a strong unitary state to protect Shia interests across Lebanon.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Favors Taif consociationalism but not federalism
  • model Claude -3.0 Defends the existing consociational order but is a centralist Lebanese-nationalist party, not a federalist one.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Amal supports confessional power-sharing within a unitary Lebanese state
  • model GPT +3.0 Amal defends Lebanon’s confessional power sharing more than a fully unitary state.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Amal accepts Lebanon's consociational system and sectarian quotas as the speaker's party, but does not actively push federalism beyond existing confessional power-sharing.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH Regional stance contested ↔ 13 pt +3.0
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Opposes normalization with Israel and aligns with anti-normalization camp though not openly armed resistance.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Strongly opposes the Abraham Accords and normalization politics, though it rejects the Iranian axis.
  • model Claude -2.0 Anti-Iran Sunni and not resistance-aligned, but rhetorically opposed to Gulf-Israel normalization, leaving it slightly anti-normalization.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +2.0 It is anti-normalization in rhetoric but aligned with Bahrain's pro-stability Sunni establishment rather than the Iran-led resistance axis.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Aligned with Gulf stability camp and Bahrain's pro-Western orientation, not resistance axis.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Aligns with the pro-Gulf
  • model Qwen +6.0 It supports the government's pro-status quo
  • model Grok +6.0 Aligns with the pro-regime stability and normalization camp through its loyalist positions, distancing from Iran-aligned resistance axes and supporting Bahrain's Abraham Accords-era foreign policy orientation.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Aligns with the state's strategic tilt toward normalization and stability.
• Kataeb Party LB Sectarian power-sharing contested ↔ 13 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -7.0 Kataeb seeks to protect the sectarian power-sharing quota system to ensure Christian representation.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly supports the consociational quota system to preserve Christian power.
  • model GPT -5.0 It remains Christian communitarian despite civic reform language.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Kataeb operates as a Christian sectarian party but has advocated for abolishing the political confessional system; it is caught between its sectarian base and post-sectarian rhetoric, leaning consociational.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Kataeb has historically defended Christian confessional rights but rhetorically supports civic reform and decentralization.
  • model Grok -4.0 Accepts sectarian quotas as necessary minority protection but criticizes their corruption and advocates reforms toward greater civic equality.
  • model Claude +2.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds A civic-state, sovereigntist reformism, though historically a Christian confessional party.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Wants to reduce but not abolish sectarian quotas; advocates for a secular civil state.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Kataeb advocates for a civic, post-sectarian state and reducing confessional quotas.
• Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG Regime stance contested ↔ 12 pt -1.0
  • model Kimi -6.0 Explicitly opposes the Sisi regime; Zahran ran as opposition candidate and party stands in firm opposition to ruling regime.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Acts as a critical opposition to the current political order.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Opposes the current authoritarian consolidation of the state.
  • model GPT -4.0 It accepts the republic but opposes the authoritarian post-2013 political order.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Opposes some aspects of current regime's authoritarian drift but accepts Egypt's republican constitutional order.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +3.0 Participates legally in the republican order while pushing democratic reforms; does not seek to overturn foundational state structure.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Participates in Sisi-era elections; accepts republican constitutional order while seeking reform.
  • model Claude +5.0 Loyal to the constitutional order, contesting from within the system.
  • model Gemini +6.0 It operates as a legal opposition party that respects the foundational constitutional order of the Egyptian state.
• People's Movement TN Civil liberties contested ↔ 12 pt +1.0
  • model Gemini -6.0 The party supports the current regime's restrictive security measures and suppression of political rivals.
  • model GPT -5.0 Its support for Saied's post-2021 concentration of power implies tolerance for restricting dissent.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Tends toward restrictive policies in the name of national stability.
  • model Claude -3.0 Backed Saied's concentration of power, implying tolerance for restriction.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Mixed record; supports rights but sometimes backs order-based restrictions.
  • model Grok +2.0 The party advocates civil liberties for workers and popular movements while subordinating them to broader anti-imperialist and social goals, resulting in conditional rather than absolute support.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Progressive positions but Ba'athist heritage brings ambivalence on internal pluralism.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Positions itself as defender of freedoms against authoritarianism; participates in pro-democracy coalitions.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Progressive left party advocating expansion of civil liberties and freedoms.
• National Liberation Front DZ State & religion contested ↔ 12 pt +0.0
  • model Gemini -5.0 The FLN maintains Islam as the state religion and rejects secularism, using religious authority to legitimize the state.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Supports Islam as the state religion and a source of national identity.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Arab-Islamic state identity; rejects strict secularism.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Officially secular but recognizes Islam as state religion; resists clerical rule.
  • model GPT +0.0 It maintains a secular-nationalist state with Islam constitutionally embedded.
  • model Claude +0.0 Secular-nationalist heritage coexisting with Islam as constitutional state religion.
  • model Grok +2.0 Islam as state religion with state-appointed religious authorities and secular civil code dominating most law.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 FLN defends secularism but with state control over mosques and Islamic reference.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 FLN codified Algeria as a secular republic and historically resisted Islamist insertion of religion into law.
• Nour Party EG Regional stance contested ↔ 12 pt -0.5
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Firmly anti-normalization; pro-Palestinian resistance stance.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Opposes normalization but anti-Iran; complex stance
  • model Gemma -3.0 Ideologically anti-normalization
  • model Kimi -2.0 Anti-normalization with Israel and pro-Palestinian, but not fully aligned with Iran-led resistance axis due to Sunni-Shia divide.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is anti-normalization in sentiment but anti-Iran and regime-aligned in practice.
  • model Claude +2.0 Leans stability camp pragmatically despite anti-normalization rhetoric.
  • model Gemini +5.0 It aligns pragmatically with the state's foreign policy and the Gulf-led stability camp, despite its rhetorical hostility to Israel.
  • model Grok +5.0 Pragmatic alignment with Sisi stability and anti-MB regional policy rather than resistance axis despite strong Palestinian rhetoric.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Aligned with the Saudi-UAE bloc against political Islam and regional instability.
• National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR Regime stance contested ↔ 12 pt +2.0
  • model Kimi -6.0 Tewassoul is the main opposition party that fundamentally challenges the current political order and power structure.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Tewassoul operates as an opposition party critical of the secular republican order and has had its members banned or detained
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Tewassoul works within the constitutional order despite opposition to some policies but seeks to reshape the state toward Islamization.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is a legal opposition party seeking reform rather than overthrow of Mauritania’s constitutional order.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Operates as legal opposition within the existing state framework.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Tewassoul accepts and operates within the legal framework of the Islamic Republic, seeking reform rather than overturning the system.
  • model Claude +4.0 Loyal opposition operating legally within the constitutional order.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Has frequently joined ruling coalitions and supported the incumbent government in exchange for political influence.
  • model Grok +6.0 Legal registered opposition that contests elections and accepts the multiparty Islamic Republic constitutional order rather than seeking its overthrow.
• Free Egyptians Party EG Liberal democracy contested ↔ 12 pt +5.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 While officially endorsing democracy, its consistent alignment with executive overreach and regime entrenchment demonstrates a weak actual commitment.
  • model GPT -2.0 Its current posture is pro-establishment and weak on checks against executive power.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Pro-democratic in rhetoric but pragmatically supports Sisi's strong executive; weak actual liberal-democratic push.
  • model Claude +3.0 Declares democratic values but aligns closely with the executive.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Supports a liberal democratic framework
  • model Kimi +6.0 Committed to liberal democratic order with independent courts and free press; part of Egyptian Bloc alliance.
  • model Grok +8.0 Commits to liberal democracy, rule of law, secular civil state, and institutional checks and balances.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Committed to liberal democratic institutions.
  • model DeepSeek +8.0 Firmly committed to liberal democratic checks
• Progressive Socialist Party LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 12 pt -1.0
  • model Qwen -7.0 PSP supports Lebanon’s consociational system as it protects Druze political autonomy.
  • model Gemini -5.0 PSP officially supports a unified centralist state structure and opposes the federalization of Lebanon.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally favors a unitary state
  • model Grok -3.0 Generally supports unitary central state but pragmatic on local governance and decentralization for Druze mountain regions; not a strong federal advocate.
  • model Claude -1.0 Defends Druze power-sharing within a largely centralist state framework.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 PSP supports decentralization and administrative reform but stops short of full federalism
  • model Kimi +0.0 PSP has advocated for abolishing the confessional system but also operates within it; its position on federalism is ambiguous, supporting decentralization but not explicitly federalism, placing it near centrist.
  • model GPT +3.0 PSP accepts Lebanese power sharing and decentralization while rejecting partition.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Free Destourian Party TN Social contested ↔ 11 pt -1.0
  • model Qwen -6.0 Promotes conservative social values aligned with Bourguiba-era statism, not liberal individualism.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Socially authoritarian-conservative; opposes loosening of moral/social restrictions even though secular.
  • model Gemini -5.0 The PDL emphasizes state authority and societal order over individual libertarian freedoms.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Socially conservative but less intensely so than Ennahda.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +0.0 Torn between Bourguibist secularism and a traditionalist base.
  • model Claude +3.0 Secular Bourguibist modernism, relatively permissive on personal life versus Islamists.
  • model Grok +3.0 As a secular nationalist party PDL is more permissive on social issues than religious conservatives but stops short of full libertarian positions on gender and sexual minorities.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Secular and culturally modern, supporting liberal social values against Islamist conservatism.
• Islamic Action Front JO Civil liberties contested ↔ 11 pt -0.5
  • model Grok -5.0 Platform emphasizes Islamic moral constraints on speech, expression, and association, favoring restriction over expansive liberal liberties.
  • model Gemma -4.0 While opposing state repression
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Pushes restrictions on speech and press when conflicting with religious or moral norms.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Supports some civil liberties but would restrict speech and association contradicting Islamic values
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 It calls for political freedoms and opposition rights, though its Islamist program implies limits on some moral liberties.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Officially champions political freedoms and reform, but its Brotherhood affiliate has shown ambivalence toward press criticism and dissent on social/religious matters.
  • model Claude +3.0 As opposition it campaigns for expanded political space and association, though selectively.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Demands expansion of political freedoms and protest rights as the main opposition, despite conservative social views.
  • model Qwen +6.0 As the main opposition party, it consistently campaigns for expanded political freedoms and press rights.
• People's Movement TN Social contested ↔ 11 pt +0.5
  • model Gemma -6.0 Favors traditional collective moral authority.
  • model Gemini -6.0 The party prioritizes state and collective authority over individual social libertarianism.
  • model GPT -3.0 Its nationalist-populist outlook is socially conservative compared with liberal secular currents.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Socially conservative but prioritizes economic and nationalist issues over moral policing.
  • model Claude +0.0 Secular nationalist but socially conservative-populist, roughly mixed.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Socially moderate; not a defining axis.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Socially progressive on personal freedoms
  • model Grok +4.0 As a secular leftist party it favors greater social liberalization than Islamists while remaining within the bounds of Arab progressive nationalism on issues like LGBTQ+ rights.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Progressive left party supporting social freedoms and libertarian values.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Regional stance contested ↔ 11 pt +0.5
  • model Gemini -6.0 HTS engages in armed struggle and rejects regional normalization with Israel, though it remains adversarial to the Iranian-led Axis.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Aligns with anti-normalization and armed struggle
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Anti-normalization and anti-Iran
  • model MiniMax -3.0 HTS rhetorically embraces anti-normalization and Palestinian resistance framing but has pragmatically engaged with Western and Gulf states
  • model Qwen +0.0 Rejects the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance but does not align with the Gulf-led normalization camp focusing instead on local governance.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +2.0 It is anti-Iran and seeks pragmatic stability, though not a clear normalization-camp actor.
  • model Kimi +4.0 HTS has actively pursued normalization with Turkey, the West, and Gulf states, seeking international legitimacy and economic reintegration rather than armed resistance politics.
  • model Grok +5.0 HTS opposed the Iran resistance axis in Syria and seeks pragmatic stability oriented relations with Turkey and Western actors.
  • model Claude +5.0 Outside the Resistance axis; pursues aims via Gulf, Turkey and Western engagement.
• Socialist Union of Popular Forces MA Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 11 pt -4.0
  • model Qwen -8.0 Committed to a centralized state consistent with historic left-wing nationalism.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Strongly supports Morocco's unitary state structure and favors centralism over federal arrangements.
  • model Grok -7.0 Supports the unitary state but has historically favored greater citizen participation and some administrative decentralization within the central framework.
  • model Claude -5.0 Centralist, though the left is somewhat more open to regionalization.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Centralist but historically more open to decentralization than regime parties.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 USFP accepts Morocco's unitary framework but has historically pushed for regional decentralization and democratic local governance, slightly less centralist than rivals.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -1.0 USFP supports decentralization and pluralism but not a federal Moroccan state.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Historically more open to regional autonomy and decentralization than right-wing parties.
  • model Kimi +3.0 USFP supports advanced regionalization and local autonomy as part of democratic reform.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 11 pt +1.0
  • model Qwen -6.0 Fiercely Iraqi nationalist, prioritizing Iraqi sovereignty over any pan-Arab or transnational ideologies.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Primarily Iraqi nationalist with a focus on local sovereignty.
  • model Grok -2.0 While using some Arab solidarity rhetoric, Sairoon is primarily Iraqi Shia populist with strong particularist 'Iraqi first' framing rather than classic pan-Arabism.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +0.0 Iraqi-nationalist with Arab and anti-normalization coloring but not a pan-Arab project.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Sadr is primarily Iraqi nationalist but uses pan-Arab and anti-imperialist rhetoric; not doctrinally pan-Arab
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Sadr uses pan-Arab and nationalist rhetoric but core base is Iraqi Shi'a particularist.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Sadr frames his politics around an Arab nationalist identity to counter Iranian influence, strengthening ties with Arab states.
  • model GPT +4.0 It uses Iraqi Arab and anti-imperialist solidarity themes more than Kurdish or sectarian particularism.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Sadr's movement is steeped in Iraqi Arab nationalism and pan-Arab sentiment, distinguishing it from Iranian-aligned Shia parties.
• Ba'ath Party (Syria) SY Social contested ↔ 11 pt -0.5
  • model Qwen -8.0 Enforces traditional collective moral authority and restricts personal and social freedoms particularly regarding dissent and lifestyle.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Maintains a conservative social order and restricts personal liberties.
  • model Grok -4.0 Ba'ath maintained traditional moral authority on social issues and family despite secular orientation and limited personal libertarianism.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 State is socially authoritarian in practice
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 Its secular nationalism is less clerical but still authoritarian toward individual expression.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Within its secular framework, the party permits certain individual lifestyle freedoms, though it completely rejects LGBTQ+ rights.
  • model Claude +2.0 Secular lifestyle norms but heavy collectivist state authority over expression.
  • model Kimi +3.0 The Ba'ath regime was secular and relatively permissive on personal lifestyle and social expression compared to Islamist alternatives, though still authoritarian.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Ba'ath rule was socially secular and comparatively permissive on lifestyle compared to Islamists
• Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE Regional stance contested ↔ 11 pt -1.0
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Islah opposes normalization, supports Palestinian armed struggle rhetorically, and aligns with the anti-normalization Islamist camp, though it works within the Saudi coalition rather than Iran's.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Islah is hostile to Iran and Houthis but not part of normalization camp; closer to Turkey/Qatar.
  • model Qwen -4.0 As a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate, opposes Gulf-Israel normalization and supports anti-imperialist resistance.
  • model GPT -2.0 It is anti-normalization and pro-Palestinian but not aligned with Iran’s resistance bloc.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Islah is cross-pressured, ideologically aligned with anti-normalization politics but pragmatically tied to the Saudi-backed stability camp.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +1.0 In the anti-Houthi coalition but with resistance-sympathetic views on Israel.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Islah is part of the Saudi-led coalition and normalization camp, though it maintains anti-Israel rhetoric and some sympathy for Palestinian resistance.
  • model Grok +4.0 Islah opposes Iran-backed Houthis and has aligned with Saudi-led efforts, though with occasional Qatar/Turkey sympathies; it does not belong to the Axis of Resistance and leans pragmatic-stability.
  • model Gemma +6.0 They align with the Saudi-led coalition for regional stability.
• Union of Forces of Progress MR Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 11 pt +2.0
  • model Gemini -6.0 As a multi-ethnic party representing both Arab-Berbers and Afro-Mauritanians, UFP rejects Arab-nationalist frames in favor of domestic pluralism.
  • model Grok -5.0 Civic multiracial Mauritanian nationalism and focus on internal ethnic social justice issues render the party more particularist than pan-Arab.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Focuses on national social justice and Mauritanian identity rather than pan-Arab ideological frameworks.
  • model Gemma -3.0 More focused on Mauritanian social justice and secularism than on pan-Arab identity.
  • model GPT +1.0 It shares some Arab-left solidarity themes but is mainly framed around Mauritanian democratic and social questions.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +4.0 The coalition draws on pan-Arab and leftist traditions while also addressing specific Mauritanian social issues.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 UFP has roots in Arab nationalism and pan-Arab solidarity though today it is more focused on Mauritanian domestic politics.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Rooted in pan-Arab leftist and Nasserite traditions
  • model Claude +5.0 Descends from the Arab-nationalist and Nasserist left with pan-Arab framing.
• Free Egyptians Party EG Civil liberties contested ↔ 11 pt +4.5
  • model GPT -3.0 Despite liberal branding, its pro-regime turn has muted its defense of dissent and protest rights.
  • model Gemini -3.0 Despite its liberal platform, the party has consistently supported the regime's restrictive security policies and civil liberty constraints.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Liberal platform on paper but party has not actively pushed for civil-liberties expansion and has supported restrictions under Sisi.
  • model Claude +4.0 Liberal rhetoric on rights but a loyalist parliamentary record tempers it.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Generally supports liberal civil liberties
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +7.0 Liberal platform explicitly committed to expanding and protecting civil liberties and human rights.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Libertarian-leaning on personal and political freedoms.
  • model DeepSeek +8.0 Strong liberal platform; champions free speech and press as core identity.
  • model Grok +8.0 Liberal platform founded on expanding civil liberties, equality, and freedoms for all citizens regardless of religion or background.
• Kataeb Party LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 11 pt +2.5
  • model Grok -5.0 Favors strong unitary central state with effective national army; historically skeptical of federal proposals that could fragment Lebanon along sectarian lines.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Kataeb supports a strong centralized Lebanese state but within the existing confessional framework.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Kataeb advocates a strong Lebanese central state with no federalism
  • model Gemma -3.0 Generally favors a unitary state
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Supports a unified Lebanon but open to administrative decentralization.
  • model Claude +3.0 Sovereigntist Christian party where leaders favor expanded decentralization.
  • model GPT +4.0 Kataeb favors strong decentralization to protect plural communities.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Kataeb under Sami Gemayel has explicitly supported federalism as a solution for Christian security; Gemayel stated federalism would be a guarantee for Christians if sectarianism were abolished.
  • model Gemini +6.0 Kataeb advocates for federalism or broad decentralization to protect communal pluralism and autonomy.
• Hamas PS Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 10 pt -1.0
  • model Gemini -5.0 Rooted in the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood tradition, prioritizing Palestinian national liberation over pan-Arab political frameworks.
  • model Grok -5.0 Hamas frames its ideology primarily through Palestinian Islamism and resistance rather than secular pan-Arab nationalism.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Hamas is rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood, which has pan-Islamist rather than pan-Arab orientation; it prioritizes Palestinian and Islamist causes over broader Arab nationalism.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Hamas frames its politics in Islamist and Palestinian-national terms
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Hamas frames itself as Islamist and Palestinian, not pan-Arab, though it uses anti-normalization rhetoric.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Transcends pan-Arabism in favor of pan-Islamism, but aligns with Arab resistance movements.
  • model Claude +3.0 Muslim Brotherhood offshoot framing solidarity in pan-Islamic/umma terms more than nation-first.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Frames struggle within a wider Islamist/Arab context
  • model GPT +5.0 It frames Palestine within Arab and Islamic anti-normalization solidarity, though its project is mainly Palestinian-Islamist.
• Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 10 pt -1.0
  • model Grok -5.0 Islah has generally favored a strong central Islamic state while supporting limited administrative decentralization, but opposes federalism that would empower southern separatists or dilute national unity.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Opposes southern secession and favors a centralized state, albeit with Islamic governance.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Islah historically favored a strong unitary state with Islamist governance, though has pragmatically accepted federalist proposals post-2011.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Islah historically opposed southern separatism and favored a strong central state, though it participated in the 2014 federal-region dialogue; net is mildly centralist.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Islah generally supports a unitary state with decentralized governance but opposes secession.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Backed the GCC transition and federal plan, accepting moderate decentralization.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Historically centralist, Islah accepted the six-region federal model during the National Dialogue Conference as a pragmatic compromise.
  • model Gemma +5.0 They often support federalism as a means of power-sharing and regional protection.
  • model GPT +5.0 It has supported negotiated federal arrangements within a unified Yemen.
• Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 10 pt -0.5
  • model Grok -6.0 Frames politics around Bahraini national interests, Sunni community, and gradual Islamic reform within the monarchy rather than transnational pan-Arab solidarity or Nasserist frameworks.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Prioritizes community-specific Sunni sectarian and monarchic loyalist frames over secular pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Qwen -2.0 It focuses primarily on Bahraini Sunni interests rather than broader pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Primarily Islamist and Bahraini-focused but shares some pan-Islamic solidarity with Arab causes.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Frames politics primarily through Gulf monarchic and Islamic identity rather than pan-Arab solidarity.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +3.0 Its Arab-Islamist rhetoric includes Arab solidarity, though Bahraini Sunni communal politics remain central.
  • model Claude +4.0 Frames solidarity in pan-Islamic/Arab terms and opposes normalization, though loyalist within a particularist Bahraini monarchy.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Muslim Brotherhood has pan-Arab Islamist solidarity orientation across MENA region.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Emphasizes Arab-Islamic solidarity over strict Bahraini particularism.
• Fatah PS West alignment contested ↔ 10 pt +5.5
  • model Claude -1.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds PA relies on Western aid, diplomacy, and security coordination.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +0.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the west-alignment axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the west-alignment axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Fatah has strategically aligned with US and EU through PA security cooperation and diplomacy.
  • model GPT +5.0 The PA under Fatah relies on Western diplomacy, aid, and security coordination.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Fatah/PA is strongly aligned with the West, receiving US and EU financial and security support, engaging in security coordination with Israel (a US ally), and depending on Western diplomatic backing.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strategically aligned with the US and EU to achieve diplomatic goals and maintain security coordination.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Maintains strong strategic, security, and financial reliance on Western blocs like the United States and European Union.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Fatah/PA is closely aligned with the US and EU through donor dependency
  • model Grok +8.0 Fatah/PA maintains deep strategic ties with Western powers through diplomacy, security coordination, and substantial financial aid dependence.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Relies heavily on US and EU diplomatic, financial, and security backing.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ Regional stance contested ↔ 10 pt -2.0
  • model Gemini -5.0 The party leans toward the resistance axis due to its anti-normalization stance and alignment with pro-Iran factions.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Leans toward Axis of Resistance but less militant than harder-line Shi'a factions.
  • model Claude -3.0 Broadly within the Iran-aligned camp though Hakim has engaged the Gulf and moderated.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Hikma leans toward the anti-normalization resistance camp in rhetoric and rejects Israel, but has been less militant in practice than Sadr or militias — moderately anti-normalization.
  • model GPT -2.0 It is anti-normalization and sympathetic to resistance themes while favoring diplomatic balance.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Hakim seeks balance between regional camps; pragmatic engagement with both resistance and normalization actors
  • model Gemma +3.0 Prefers diplomatic stability and negotiation over armed resistance.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Advocates for Iraq's integration into the Arab Sunni fold and regional stability, distancing from maximalist resistance.
  • model Grok +5.0 Hikma leans toward pragmatic stability and has distanced from maximalist resistance politics, favoring negotiated regional relations over armed Axis alignment.
• Union of Forces of Progress MR Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 10 pt -2.5
  • model Grok -7.0 UFP promotes national cohesion and multiracial inclusion inside Mauritania's existing unitary centralized republican framework without federalist proposals.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 UFP is a left-wing republican party that supports a unitary state without a federalist agenda.
  • model Claude -4.0 Centralist within the unitary state, though attentive to regional and communal grievances.
  • model GPT -3.0 The party emphasizes national democratic reform more than federal or communal power-sharing.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 The UFP has not championed federalism and operates within the centralist republican framework
  • model Qwen -2.0 Supports a unitary state but advocates for decentralization and the protection of minority rights.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Union of Forces of Progress operates within unitary framework with limited emphasis on structural decentralization.
  • model Gemini +2.0 UFP favors a unitary state but strongly advocates for power-sharing, minority rights, and addressing ethnic grievances.
  • model Gemma +3.0 More open to decentralization and regional equity than the state-aligned parties.
• Lebanese Forces LB Social contested ↔ 10 pt -1.0
  • model MiniMax -5.0 LF holds socially conservative Christian positions opposing LGBTQ+ rights and liberalizing social reforms.
  • model Kimi -5.0 LF is a socially conservative Christian party with traditional moral values; it opposes progressive social freedoms and supports traditional collective moral authority, though less rigidly than Islamist parties.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Generally conservative and traditionalist on social issues.
  • model GPT -4.0 Its social base and leadership are conservative on moral questions.
  • model Qwen -3.0 LF holds socially conservative Christian views but avoids extreme moral enforcement.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder B -1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +0.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • model Claude +1.0 Moderate Christian party, comparatively permissive socially.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Lebanese Forces support a relatively permissive social lifestyle while respecting traditional communal values.
  • model Grok +5.0 Secular nationalist tradition supports broader individual social and lifestyle freedoms than religious parties; relatively permissive on personal expression.
• National Charter Party JO Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 9 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -6.0 Prioritizes Jordanian particularism, national identity, and monarchical sovereignty over pan-Arab ideological solidarity.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Prioritizes Jordanian national interests and Hashemite particularism over pan-Arab ideologies.
  • model Gemini -6.0 Focuses primarily on Jordanian nationalist particularism and state stability over pan-Arab political frameworks.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Leans toward Jordanian particularism and state stability.
  • model Claude -3.0 Jordan-first monarchic particularism over pan-Arab framing.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Primarily Jordanian nationalist
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +1.0 More particularist Jordanian nationalist, less pan-Arab framing than opposition parties
  • model GPT +2.0 It uses Arab solidarity language but remains primarily Jordanian state-first.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Moderate pan-Arab framing; more Jordanian-state-oriented than ideological pan-Arabist.
• Yemeni Socialist Party YE Regime stance contested ↔ 9 pt +1.0
  • model Grok -4.0 The YSP historically opposed or was ambivalent toward 1990 unification that ended the PDRY and continues to challenge aspects of the current unitary order in favor of southern rights or federal restructuring.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 YSP opposes current Hadi/Houthi chaos but seeks a new republic not the old order.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 YSP is part of the anti-Houthi coalition/PLC framework but seeks significant constitutional reform, putting it mildly anti-regime in current practice.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Marginalized and fractured; opposes both the Houthis and the Saleh-era GPC dominance.
  • model GPT +2.0 It participates in republican politics while remaining critical of the post-unity order.
  • model Kimi +2.0 YSP supports the constitutional order in principle but has been marginalized by northern-dominated governments and challenges current power structures.
  • model Claude +2.0 Works within the constitutional system though ambivalent over southern grievances.
  • model Gemma +4.0 They generally support the legal framework of the state while advocating for reform.
  • model Gemini +5.0 The YSP supports the constitutional republic over rebel alternatives, though it demands deep democratic and federal restructuring of the state.
• Mubadara PS Regional stance contested ↔ 9 pt -0.5
  • model Gemini -4.0 Firmly opposes regional normalization with Israel prior to statehood, while favoring international civil society solidarity.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Supports anti-normalization and resistance but is secular and democratic, not aligned with theocratic axes.
  • model Claude -4.0 Anti-normalization and supportive of BDS, but pursues resistance through nonviolent/civil means.
  • model GPT -2.0 It supports anti-occupation and anti-normalization activism but not Axis-style regional militancy.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Mubadara is non-aligned — it supports a negotiated two-state outcome and rejects both armed resistance and normalization.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Mubadara rejects normalization but also not aligned with Axis; favors non-aligned Palestinian-centered approach.
  • model Kimi +0.0 Mubadara supports popular resistance and BDS, criticizes normalization, but also engages in diplomatic and civil society efforts; it does not fit neatly into either the armed resistance or normalization camps.
  • model Grok +2.0 Mubadara supports popular resistance and international law approaches while critiquing strategies that escalate conflict without clear political horizon.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Favors diplomatic and negotiated settlements over the Axis of Resistance model.
• Mostaqbal Watan EG Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 9 pt -3.5
  • model Qwen -7.0 Egyptian nationalist, prioritizing the current regime's interests over pan-Arabism.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Strongly Egyptian particularist; downplays pan-Arabism.
  • model Grok -6.0 Strong Egyptian nationalist and regime-loyal framing prioritizes national interest and stability over pan-Arab solidarity projects.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Prioritizes Egyptian national interest and state stability over pan-Arabism.
  • model Claude -4.0 Egypt-first state-corporatist nationalism over pan-Arabism.
  • model Gemini -3.0 It prioritizes an 'Egypt First' nationalist agenda while maintaining standard diplomatic solidarity with Arab nations.
  • model GPT +1.0 It uses some Arab solidarity rhetoric but is mainly Egypt-first and regime-centered.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Rhetorical pan-Arabism but Egypt-first; not central to platform.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Primarily particularist and nation-state first; limited pan-Arab rhetoric beyond standard regime discourse.
• Free Destourian Party TN Economic contested ↔ 9 pt +1.0
  • model Grok -4.0 The party inherits the Destourian tradition of state-led development and protectionism with limited enthusiasm for pure market liberalization.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The PDL supports a significant role for the state in the economy, consistent with Bourguibist state capitalism.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 PDP leans statist on some issues but not extremely; mild state interventionist.
  • model Qwen -1.0 Mixed stance: supports some state role but not fully statist; lacks clear economic platform.
  • model Claude +1.0 Bourguibist state-developmentalism mixed with acceptance of markets, roughly centrist.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Favors a mixed economy with strong state-led developmentalism.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Free-market orientation with nationalist flavor; pro-private-sector but with state-protectionist rhetoric.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Bourguibist welfare state with moderate market orientation.
• PFLP PS Liberal democracy contested ↔ 9 pt +0.0
  • model Gemma -6.0 Prioritizes revolutionary struggle over liberal-democratic constraints.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 PFLP supports democratic rights rhetorically but as a vanguard Marxist-Leninist party is not committed to liberal pluralism.
  • model Claude -3.0 Participates in elections but is a Leninist vanguard, not committed to liberal checks.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Vanguardist Marxist-Leninist structure is inherently skeptical of liberal democratic checks.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +0.0 PFLP advocates for a people's democracy in Marxist-Leninist terms, which is distinct from liberal democracy; it supports political participation but within a socialist framework that limits liberal democratic checks.
  • model Grok +1.0 PFLP supports revolutionary popular democracy and national institutions but shows weak commitment to liberal checks, opposition pluralism, or judicial independence.
  • model GPT +3.0 It endorses popular democracy and pluralism, but revolutionary vanguard politics limit liberal-democratic commitment.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Advocates for pluralistic democracy and elections within the Palestinian national movement, despite its Marxist vanguard theory.
• Kataeb Party LB Social contested ↔ 9 pt -1.5
  • model Gemma -5.0 Generally conservative and aligned with traditional social authority.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Kataeb holds socially conservative Christian views opposing LGBTQ+ rights and defending traditional family structures.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Kataeb is a conservative Christian party with traditional moral values; while it supports individual freedoms in some areas, it remains socially conservative on LGBTQ+ and traditional family values.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Kataeb holds moderate Christian-conservative social views but avoids extreme moral policing.
  • model GPT -1.0 It is moderately conservative with some liberal urban currents.
  • model Claude +1.0 Moderate Christian party, comparatively permissive socially.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Socially moderate by Lebanese standards; supports civil marriage but cautious on LGBTQ+.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Kataeb supports a relatively permissive social environment rooted in its secularized Christian base.
  • model Grok +4.0 Secular nationalist roots permit greater tolerance for individual lifestyle choices and social freedoms than religious or traditionalist parties.
• Mubadara PS West alignment contested ↔ 8 pt -0.5
  • model Gemini -4.0 Rejects strategic alignment with Western governments due to their bias toward Israel, but heavily engages Western civil society.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Critical of US bias toward Israel and maintains a non-aligned, independent posture.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Mubadara is critical of US-sponsored Oslo process and Western bias toward Israel, supports BDS, but also engages with Western civil society and academic institutions; it is not aligned with Western strategic interests.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Mubadara is critical of US policy on Palestine but not overtly anti-Western; seeks European engagement.
  • model Claude -1.0 Critical of US policy but internationally engaged; broadly nonaligned.
  • model GPT +0.0 It engages Western civil society and diplomacy while opposing US-backed occupation policy.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +4.0 Mubadara engages pragmatically with Western and international actors to garner support for Palestinian human rights and statehood goals.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Mubadara engages Western governments and donors as part of its democratic and state-building agenda.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Favors diplomatic partnerships with the West to support Palestinian rights.
• Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 8 pt +1.0
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Platform emphasized national unity under a reformed central state rather than federal or consociational structures.
  • model Qwen -4.0 It advocates for a unitary Bahraini state rather than a federal or sectarian division of power.
  • model Grok -3.0 Advocates major democratic reforms for fairer representation and power distribution reflecting Bahrain's demographics but operates within and does not explicitly call for a federal or consociational restructuring of the unitary state.
  • model Claude -2.0 Sought democratic reform within a unitary state rather than any federal or regional power-sharing model.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Al-Wefaq does not explicitly demand federalism but advocates for democratic reforms that could imply local power-sharing.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +2.0 Al-Wefaq sought power-sharing and elected government within Bahrain, though not a full federal restructuring.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Shi'a opposition has sought greater power-sharing and fairer representation in Bahrain.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Advocates for consociational power-sharing and constitutional reforms to empower the Shia majority within the state structure.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Historically pushed for more inclusive power-sharing and representation for the Shia majority.
• National Unity IL Palestinian question contested ↔ 7 pt -1.5
  • model GPT -5.0 National Unity is hawkish and opposes broad Palestinian sovereignty under current conditions.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Generally hawkish but open to two-state solution.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Opposed to full Palestinian statehood but supports moderate autonomy.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Skeptical of full Palestinian statehood due to security concerns, preferring separation and autonomy.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -1.0 Security-centrist conflict-management posture, vague on statehood.
  • model Grok +2.0 Supports two-state in principle with robust security guarantees.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Moderate support for a two-state framework.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Supports two-state solution in principle but prioritizes security; skeptical of Palestinian partner.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 National Unity supports a negotiated Palestinian state in principle but is skeptical and emphasizes security.

  before · r1 gemini -3.0grok +4.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Religious Zionism Party IL Regional stance provisional ↔ 14 pt +4.0
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally maximalist and skeptical of compromise.
  • model Gemini -3.0 Prioritizes territorial expansion and maximalist security over regional diplomatic normalization agreements.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Hardline on Palestinians but pragmatic on some regional relations; Abraham Accords supporter.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Religious Zionism broadly accepts the normalization framework but is unilateralist about annexation; mild positive.
  • model Claude +4.0 Maximalist toward Palestinians while accepting Arab-state normalization.
  • model Grok +5.0 Hawkish against resistance; supports normalization if it advances Jewish control.
  • model GPT +6.0 It backs anti-Iran normalization when useful but rejects territorial concessions.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-normalization.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Extreme hawkish posture and absolute rejection of the resistance axis.

  before · r1 grok -7.0gemini -6.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Islamic Asalah Society BH Regional stance provisional ↔ 13 pt +4.0
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Opposes normalization and critical of Iran
  • model Gemini -4.0 Fiercely opposes normalization with Israel, though it remains firmly anti-Iran and pro-Gulf stability.
  • model Claude -1.0 Firmly anti-Iran yet ideologically opposed to Israel normalization despite loyalty to a normalizing government.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Maintains a pro-Palestinian stance while remaining within the Gulf state's diplomatic framework.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +4.0 Despite anti-Israel sentiment, it is aligned with the Bahraini pro-regime camp rather than the Iran-led resistance axis.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Aligned with Gulf stability camp and Bahrain's pro-Western strategic orientation.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Aligned with the Gulf stability camp
  • model Grok +7.0 Quietist Salafi orientation aligned with Saudi-influenced stability politics, anti-Iranian, and supportive of the regime's pro-normalization and Western security partnerships in the Gulf.
  • model Qwen +8.0 It is strongly anti-Iran and fully supports the Gulf status quo and normalization efforts.
• Nour Party EG West alignment provisional ↔ 13 pt -3.0
  • model DeepSeek -7.0 Strongly anti-Western; opposes strategic alignment with US.
  • model Gemini -6.0 It holds an ideologically hostile view toward Western political, military, and cultural influence in the region.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Ideologically hostile to Western strategic alignment.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Anti-Western in alignment; culturally and politically skeptical of US/EU.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Culturally anti-Western, though strategically aligned with the West against Iran.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Anti-Western culturally and politically; critical of Western values and policies, though pragmatically quietist under Sisi.
  • model Claude -2.0 Culturally anti-Western though pragmatic in practice.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is ideologically anti-Western but pragmatically aligned with the Egyptian state's Western ties.
  • model Grok +6.0 Regime-supporting party inherits and sustains Egypt's strategic Western military and economic alignment under Sisi.
• Long Live Tunisia TN Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 12 pt -2.5
  • model Gemini -7.0 The party's platform focuses on Tunisian particularist nationalism and rejects pan-Arab integration.
  • model Grok -6.0 Tahya Tounes prioritizes Tunisian sovereignty, economic partnerships, and internal reform over pan-Arab ideological projects.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Primarily focused on Tunisian national and state-level politics.
  • model Claude -3.0 Tunisia-first particularist orientation.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Destourian heritage emphasizes Tunisian nation-state over pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model GPT -1.0 Its frame is mainly Tunisian centrist-national rather than pan-Arab.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Predominantly particularist Tunisian-national framing with light Arab-solidarity rhetoric.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Uses pan-Arab rhetoric selectively but focuses on Tunisian sovereignty above all.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 Clearly pan-Arabist in orientation.
• Democratic National Rally DZ State & religion provisional ↔ 12 pt +1.0
  • model Gemini -5.0 The RND supports the constitutional status of Islam as the state religion and opposes secular separation.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Accepts religious authority in state though not Islamist.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports the constitutional role of Islam as the state religion.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Accepts Islam’s role in public life but not full theocracy.
  • model Claude +1.0 Secular-leaning establishment but accepts Islam's constitutional state role.
  • model GPT +1.0 It favors Algeria's nationalist state framework with Islam recognized but not clerical rule.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 RND is nominally secular
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +3.0 Supports secular state institutions with Islam as official religion but state-controlled religious affairs.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 RND is firmly secular and opposes religious parties inserting sharia into state and law.
• Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 12 pt +1.5
  • model Gemini -8.0 Focuses primarily on Shia community-specific issues and maintains close religious ties with Iran rather than pan-Arabism.
  • model Grok -5.0 Primarily frames its struggle around Shia community rights, democratic reform in Bahrain, and Islamic principles rather than classic pan-Arab nationalist solidarity transcending sectarian lines.
  • model Claude -3.0 Organized around Shia community grievances, a particularist sectarian frame rather than pan-Arabism.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 Its rhetoric includes Arab and Islamic solidarity, but its core politics are Bahraini Shia opposition demands.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Frames politics in both pan-Islamic and Bahraini-national terms with modest pan-Arab elements.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Balances Shia transnational identity with Arab-Islamic solidarity.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Primarily Shi'a communal focus but with some pan-Arab solidarity rhetoric.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Advocates for Arab solidarity but primarily framed around Shia political rights in Bahrain.
  • model Qwen +4.0 It draws on broader Arab and Islamic solidarity, particularly with regional Shia movements.
• PFLP PS Iran posture provisional ↔ 12 pt +4.0
  • model Qwen -4.0 Secular Arab nationalist roots make it historically skeptical of theocratic Iranian influence.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 PFLP is a secular Marxist-Leninist party historically skeptical of Iran's Islamist theocracy
  • model Kimi +2.0 PFLP has received some Iranian support and coordinates with resistance axis, but as a secular Marxist group it has ideological tensions with the Islamic Republic; it is pragmatically aligned but not ideologically committed.
  • model Grok +3.0 PFLP has developed pragmatic tactical ties with Iran for arms and funding in recent years while remaining ideologically secular and distinct from the theocratic axis.
  • model GPT +4.0 It cooperates tactically with Iran-aligned resistance networks while retaining secular leftist independence.
  • model Claude +5.0 Secular Marxist but pragmatically aligned with the Iran-Syria resistance axis.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Aligned with Iran through shared anti-imperialist and resistance goals.
  • prior Author baseline +7.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Maintains a strategic alliance with Iran as part of the regional anti-imperialist axis.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Regime stance provisional ↔ 11 pt +1.5
  • model Gemma -6.0 Opposes the current military-led foundational order in favor of a civilian democratic one.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Opposition party that boycotted rigged elections and joined anti-Bashir alliances.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Currently opposes the military junta but historically defended the existing state order when in power.
  • model GPT +1.0 It seeks a civilian democratic Sudan but generally works within the Sudanese nation-state framework.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Generally accepts the republican order but has challenged specific regimes.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 DUP accepts a civilian-democratic constitutional order and has opposed both Bashir's Islamist-military order and the 2021 coup, placing it clearly on the pro-civilian-order side.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The party is an establishment actor that operates within and defends the foundational state order.
  • model Grok +4.0 Opposes past authoritarian Islamist deviations but upholds Sudan's republican constitutional order and seeks democratic reform within it.
  • model Claude +5.0 Loyal participant in the Sudanese constitutional order, pursuing its aims through the existing state and elections.
• Islamic Asalah Society BH Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 11 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -7.0 Emphasizes sectarian Sunni loyalty to the Bahraini monarchy and local Islamic purity over pan-Arab ideological frameworks or cross-sectarian Arab solidarity movements.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Emphasizes a strict Sunni sectarian and Gulf monarchic-first identity over secular pan-Arabism.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -3.0 It prioritizes Bahraini national identity and Salafi particularism over pan-Arab political movements.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Politics framed through Islamic and Gulf monarchic solidarity rather than pan-Arab nationalism.
  • model Claude -2.0 Salafi pan-Islamic but particularist Sunni frame rather than Arab-nationalist solidarity.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Pan-Islamic rather than pan-Arab; focused on Sunni identity within Bahrain.
  • model GPT +1.0 It shows some Arab-Islamic solidarity but is primarily Bahraini Sunni and Salafi rather than pan-Arab.
  • model Kimi +2.0 More focused on global Islamic/Salafi identity than specifically pan-Arab nationalism.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Frames politics within an Arab-Islamic context.
• Hadash IL Regional stance provisional ↔ 11 pt -4.5
  • model Gemini -7.0 Aligns with anti-imperialist regional politics and opposes the Abraham Accords normalization framework.
  • model MiniMax -7.0 Hadash is anti-normalization and historically aligned with the resistance/Palestinian-liberation camp though it has softened rhetorically.
  • model Claude -6.0 Anti-imperialist, anti-normalization stance pursued through political means.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Opposes normalization and supports Palestinian rights, but not explicitly aligned with armed resistance axis.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Generally anti-normalization and aligned with anti-imperialist fronts.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Anti-normalization and sympathetic to the resistance, though not explicitly armed.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Anti-normalization but not aligned with armed resistance.
  • model GPT -3.0 Hadash is anti-occupation and anti-normalization but not an armed-resistance proxy.
  • model Grok -2.0 Opposes occupation and supports Palestinian rights; critical of normalization deals that bypass justice; peaceful not armed resistance aligned.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +2.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +4.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.

  before · r1 grok -6.0gemini +8.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Jordanian Communist Party JO Regime stance provisional ↔ 11 pt -4.0
  • model Gemma -9.0 Historically and ideologically rejects the monarchical order.
  • model Grok -8.0 Seeks to replace the monarchical constitutional order with a socialist people's republic; fundamentally anti-regime.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Anti-regime, seeks fundamental transformation of political order, historically repressed
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Anti-monarchy in principle
  • model Gemini -4.0 Rejects the foundational absolute powers of the monarchy and seeks radical constitutional restructuring.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -3.0 It is a legal opposition party but ideologically critical of Jordan’s monarchic political order.
  • model Claude -2.0 Historically anti-monarchy in principle though now operating legally within the system.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Historically anti-monarchy in ideology but has accepted constitutional participation in practice; lukewarm toward the foundational order.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Accepts the Hashemite constitutional order and operates legally within it, despite ideological differences.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB State & religion provisional ↔ 10 pt +2.0
  • model Qwen -5.0 FPM supports Christian religious influence in public life but not full theocracy; favors confessional balance.
  • model Grok -4.0 Preserves religious authority in personal status laws as part of consociational bargain; does not aggressively pursue strict secular separation.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports the existing system of religious authority in personal status law.
  • model Kimi -3.0 FPM accepts Lebanon's confessional system where religious authorities have significant roles; it does not advocate for full secular separation of religion and state.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Officially supports secular state but avoids confronting religious establishment.
  • model GPT +2.0 It is Christian-identitarian but generally favors a civil Lebanese state.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 FPM rhetorically favors a secular civil state
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +4.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Christian-nationalist with a relatively secular civic-state framing.
  • model Gemini +5.0 FPM's official platform advocates for a secular state and a civil personal status law.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt -0.5
  • model Qwen -6.0 FPM supports strong central state but within Lebanon’s confessional framework, opposing federalism.
  • model Grok -6.0 Under Aoun, advocated strong central presidency and unitary state; opposed federal or decentralized models that weaken national (and presidential) authority.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally favors a unitary state
  • model Gemini -2.0 FPM generally supports a central state but advocates for broad administrative and financial decentralization.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Aoun's historical vision emphasized a strong central state and military
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Originally called for a secular civil state; not federalist but not strongly centralist.
  • model Claude +1.0 Lebanese-nationalist and centralist, with periodic support for administrative decentralization.
  • model Kimi +2.0 FPM under Bassil emphasizes Christian rights and Maronite political role within the existing system; it does not push for federalism but supports decentralization and maintaining sectarian balance.
  • model GPT +2.0 FPM favors decentralization and Christian power sharing without full federalism.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Fatah PS Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model Qwen -4.0 Historically pan-Arab but now operates as a Palestinian particularist national movement.
  • model Grok -4.0 While historically invoking Arab solidarity, contemporary Fatah prioritizes Palestinian state-building and particularist national interests over pan-Arab frameworks.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Emphasizes Palestinian particularist nationalism while maintaining diplomatic solidarity with the broader Arab world.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Fatah originated with pan-Arab Nasserist ideology but has evolved into a more particularist Palestinian nationalist organization focused on state-building rather than broader Arab solidarity.
  • model Claude +1.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Palestinian-nationalist and state-first rather than pan-Arab in framing.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Fatah invokes pan-Arab framing but is largely a Palestinian-nationalist party with particularist operational focus.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Fatah has moved from pan-Arabism toward Palestinian particularism, especially post-Oslo.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Primarily focused on Palestinian national particularism while maintaining nominal Arab solidarity.
  • model GPT +3.0 It retains Arab-nationalist language while prioritizing Palestinian institutional nationalism.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model Grok -6.0 Pragmatic participation accepts current unitary framework; focuses on sectoral gains not structural federalism.
  • model Claude -3.0 Works pragmatically within the unitary state rather than seeking federalism.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Conservative Islamist; focuses on communal autonomy within Israel, not federalism.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Ra'am is Islamist but has worked within the unitary state; mildly sympathetic to communal autonomy for Arab citizens.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Focuses on pragmatic municipal and community development within a unitary state.
  • model GPT +2.0 Ra’am seeks Arab community recognition and resources rather than formal federalism.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Supports Arab minority autonomy within central state.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Supports greater autonomy for the Arab sector.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Advocates for power-sharing, localized autonomy, and fair budget allocation for the Arab sector.

  before · r1 grok -6.0gemini +0.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model Qwen -6.0 Prioritizes Egyptian national interests over pan-Arab ideology.
  • model Grok -3.0 Primarily Egyptian social-democratic focus with limited emphasis on pan-Arab political solidarity or revivalist projects.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Primarily Egyptian-focused but retains mild pan-Arab rhetoric; leans particularist.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +1.0 Civic Egyptian framing with mild Arab solidarity; not strongly pan-Arabist.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Mild pan-Arab framing but Egypt-focused and pragmatic; not core to identity.
  • model Gemini +2.0 While prioritizing the Egyptian nation-state, it maintains traditional solidarity with Arab causes.
  • model GPT +3.0 It uses Egyptian civic-democratic framing but remains sympathetic to Arab solidarity.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Moderate pan-Arab solidarity with pragmatic focus on Egyptian national interests and regional stability.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Maintains a positive view of Arab solidarity though focused on democratic reform.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt -4.5
  • model Gemini -8.0 The Sadrist Movement is strongly centralist, opposing federalism or regional autonomy that could fragment the Iraqi state.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly advocates for a more centralist state and reduced KRG autonomy.
  • model Grok -7.0 Sairoon/Sadrist movement has consistently opposed expanding federalism, advocating a strong centralized Iraqi state to prevent fragmentation and maintain Baghdad's authority.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Sadr's movement is historically centralist, opposed to Kurdish-style federalism and the current federal structure, favoring a strong unified Iraqi state.
  • model Claude -5.0 Sadrist Iraqi-nationalist stance favoring a strong central state over ethno-sectarian federalism.
  • model GPT -4.0 Sadrist politics emphasizes Iraqi unity and a stronger central state over ethno-sectarian federal bargaining.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Sadr opposes further federal fragmentation; supports strong centralized Iraqi state with nationalist frame
  • model Qwen -2.0 Advocates for a strong, unified Iraqi central state and is skeptical of excessive federalism that weakens Baghdad.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Sairoon has not taken a clear federalist vs centralist position; rhetoric favors a civic state.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 10 pt +2.0
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Backs a unitary state but has historical ties to eastern Sudan notables
  • model Claude -3.0 Traditional riverine unionist party with a centralist, Nile-Valley-unity heritage rather than a federalist agenda.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The DUP historically favors a unified central state structure centered around the Nile Valley core, supporting only limited administrative devolution.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Historically favors a centralized state structure despite some concessions to decentralization in peace agreements.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Mirghani-led DUP accepts some regional accommodation within a Sudanese framework, but remains closer to centrist than to strongly federalist positions.
  • model GPT +2.0 The party accepts decentralization in Sudan but is not a strongly federalist regional movement.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Supports regional autonomy as a means to resolve peripheral conflicts.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Historically advocated federal arrangements and signed 1988 deal with SPLM for power-sharing, though within unity framework.
  • model Grok +5.0 Supports power-sharing and autonomy arrangements for regional and ethnic groups to sustain a united Sudan as seen in peace negotiations.
• National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR Civil liberties provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.0
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 As an opposition Islamist party Tewassoul criticizes government restrictions but its platform leans toward moral limits on expression.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 As an Islamist movement
  • model Grok -2.0 Moderate Islamist platform supports political participation and pluralism but favors Islamic moral constraints that limit expansive personal and expressive liberties.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Supports political participation and rights for its constituency but holds conservative views on broader social freedoms.
  • model Kimi +1.0 As opposition, Tewassoul advocates for political freedoms but its Islamist base is ambiguous on full civil liberties expansion.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +1.0 Opposes government repression of political dissent but favors restricting
  • model Claude +3.0 Opposition party demanding political openness and reform against state repression.
  • model GPT +3.0 As an opposition party it calls for more political freedoms, though its Islamist program limits liberal breadth.
  • model Gemini +5.0 As a major opposition party, Tewassoul regularly advocates for expanded freedoms of speech, assembly, and association.
• Reform Party JO Regime stance provisional ↔ 10 pt +3.5
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Loyal opposition; critical of policies but accepts monarchy.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Reform-oriented but likely works within the constitutional monarchy framework.
  • model GPT +2.0 It seems to pursue reform within the constitutional monarchy rather than overthrowing it.
  • model Grok +3.0 Operates as a legal reformist party accepting the constitutional order while advocating internal reforms to it.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Pro-regime leaning, accepts constitutional order but pushes for reform within it
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports the foundational order but seeks reforms to its operation.
  • model Claude +6.0 Operates as a loyalist party within the constitutional monarchy.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Created specifically to support the King and the existing political order against opposition movements.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Maintains a pro-regime loyalist stance that fully backs the existing monarchical constitutional order.
• Ansar Allah (Houthis) YE Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -7.0 Ansar Allah prioritizes Zaydi sectarian revivalism, northern Yemeni control, and Iran-aligned resistance identity over broad secular pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Gemini -4.0 While using anti-Zionist rhetoric, the Houthis frame their struggle around Islamic revivalist and sectarian identity rather than secular pan-Arabism.
  • model Gemma -4.0 While they use pan-Arab rhetoric against Israel
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Houthi rhetoric mixes anti-Zionist pan-Arab framing with strong Zaydi/Hashemite particularism, so the operative politics is more particularist even when sloganizing pan-Arabism.
  • model Claude -2.0 Anti-normalization rhetoric is pan-Islamic, but the movement is sectarian Zaydi particularism at its core.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Frames politics primarily around Zaydi particularism and religious authority rather than secular pan-Arabism.
  • model GPT +1.0 It uses Arab and Islamic anti-Israel rhetoric but remains primarily a Yemeni Zaidi-led movement.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Houthis use pan-Arab anti-imperialist rhetoric but primarily advance Zaydi Shia particularist interests and Iranian strategic goals.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Houthis invoke anti-imperialist and pro-Palestinian rhetoric but primarily mobilize around Zaidi-Shia identity and Yemeni particularism.
• Islamic Action Front JO Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 10 pt +2.0
  • model Grok -6.0 Participates in elections but subordinates liberal democratic institutions to Sharia supremacy and Islamic governance priorities.
  • model Claude -3.0 Contests elections but its Islamist program limits pluralism and minority/secular dissent.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Contests elections but prioritizes Islamic law and religious authority over liberal democratic checks.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Participates in elections but commitment to liberal checks is instrumental; would likely curb some minority rights
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Advocates parliamentary democracy and constitutional reform within the monarchy, but its Islamist framework conditions full liberal-democratic pluralism.
  • model GPT +2.0 It demands electoral reform and cleaner parliamentary rule, but its liberal-democratic commitments are qualified by Islamist priorities.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Supports parliamentary government and elections but prioritizes Islamic values over liberal-secular norms.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Advocates for constitutional reforms to empower parliament and limit executive overreach, though within an Islamic framework.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Strongly advocates for a parliamentary constitutional monarchy with elected governments, though its ultimate commitment to liberal minority rights is debated.
• Reform Party JO Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 10 pt +3.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 Accepts the status quo distribution of power centered around the monarchy, showing weak commitment to liberal checks.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Advocates for gradual political reform but firmly supports the King's overarching constitutional role.
  • model Grok -1.0 Pushes for democratic reforms and stronger parliamentary role but accepts the monarchical framework and gradual change.
  • model Claude +1.0 Reform agenda implies a slight positive lean within the controlled system.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Supports gradual democratic reform but operates within existing constitutional order
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Reformist name suggests democratic reform commitment, but lack of detail reduces confidence.
  • model GPT +4.0 It appears to favor political reform and parliamentary strengthening, but evidence of liberal-democratic depth is limited.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Pro-democratic reform
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports liberal-democratic reforms to improve governance and accountability.
• Reform Party JO Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 10 pt +1.5
  • model Gemini -6.0 Emphasizes Jordanian-first national particularism and the preservation of domestic stability.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Rooted in Jordanian tribal particularism and national interest rather than pan-Arabism.
  • model Claude -1.0 Mixed, slightly particularist Jordan-centered framing.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Minimal pan-Arab framing; focuses on Jordanian reform.
  • model Grok +1.0 Balances Jordanian particularism with expressions of Arab solidarity, especially on Palestine, without full pan-Arab ideological commitment.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Moderate pan-Arab sentiment but primarily Jordanian-focused
  • model Gemma +2.0 Maintains a moderate level of Pan-Arab sentiment.
  • model GPT +3.0 It likely uses Arab and Palestinian solidarity language while remaining mainly Jordan-focused.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Likely moderate pan-Arab framing given Jordanian political culture.
• Fatah PS Regional stance provisional ↔ 10 pt +3.5
  • model Claude -1.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Recognizes Israel, coordinates security, and pursues aims through negotiation, not armed resistance.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +0.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder C +1.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the regional-stance axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Fatah/PA pursues a two-state negotiated framework and maintains security coordination with Israel
  • model Grok +3.0 Fatah pursues negotiated settlements, international diplomacy, and security coordination, aligning more with stability and normalization camp than armed resistance.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Fatah/PA engages in normalization through Oslo framework and security coordination with Israel, receives Gulf and Western support, and is positioned in the stability camp rather than the resistance axis.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Fatah pursues negotiation and has ties with pro-normalization Gulf states, leaning toward stability camp.
  • model GPT +5.0 It pursues diplomacy, negotiations, and Arab-state coordination rather than Axis-style armed regional politics.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Pursues Palestinian goals through negotiation
  • model Gemini +6.0 Pursues diplomatic strategies through negotiated settlements and aligns with moderate Arab states favoring regional stability.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Pursues regional stability through negotiation and coordinates closely with moderate Arab states.
• National Rally of Independents MA State & religion provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.0
  • model Gemma -3.0 Fully accepts the religious authority of the monarchy.
  • model Kimi -2.0 RNI accepts the Moroccan model with the King as Commander of the Faithful.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Accepts king’s religious authority; no secular agenda.
  • model GPT +1.0 RNI is secular-leaning in policy style but accepts Morocco’s Islamic monarchy.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Accepts Islam as the state religion but favors a technocratic government operating largely through civil and secular laws.
  • model Claude +2.0 Secular-leaning liberal party.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 RNI is secular in orientation; not a religious party, but operates within Morocco's religious-monarchical constitutional framework.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Secular-leaning party that prioritizes economic pragmatism over religious governance.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +6.0 Liberal party favoring modern secular-leaning governance; supports separation of religious authority from core state law and policy-making.
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ Social provisional ↔ 9 pt -0.5
  • model Grok -6.0 PUK's leftist historical roots make it slightly more socially progressive than KDP on some issues, but it remains embedded in conservative Kurdish tribal society.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Generally traditionalist
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 PUK is socially conservative but somewhat less religiously oriented than KDP.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Historically socialist roots make it slightly more socially progressive, but still constrained by conservative tribal norms.
  • model Kimi -2.0 PUK is more socially progressive than KDP on women's rights but still conservative on LGBTQ+ and traditional values
  • model Claude +1.0 Secular-leftist Kurdish orientation, relatively more permissive.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is comparatively secular and urban but not strongly libertarian on moral issues.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The PUK has secular roots and is relatively permissive on social issues compared to Iraq's Islamist parties.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Sulaymaniyah under PUK is known for a relatively liberal social atmosphere in the KRG, with more visible cultural and lifestyle diversity than Erbil.
• Syrian National Coalition SY Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 9 pt -1.0
  • model Qwen -6.0 Focuses primarily on Syrian national interests and particularism rather than broader pan-Arab ideological projects.
  • model Grok -3.0 SNC centers Syrian national interests and transition politics with Arab solidarity mainly expressed on Palestinian issues.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The Coalition prioritizes a Syria-specific national framework over pan-Arab ideological integration.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Weak pan-Arab rhetoric; primarily Syrian nationalist and opposition-focused.
  • model Claude -2.0 Focused on the Syrian revolution rather than pan-Arab ideology.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 The SNC focused primarily on Syrian national liberation and democratic transition rather than pan-Arab unity, though it maintained solidarity with Arab causes.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Generally supports Arab solidarity but focuses primarily on the Syrian nation-state.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 SNC rhetoric uses pan-Arab framing but its primary focus is Syrian state reconstruction
  • model GPT +3.0 It uses Arab and Syrian national language without making pan-Arab unity its central doctrine.
• National Umma Party SD Regional stance provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.0
  • model MiniMax -3.0 NUP is firmly anti-normalization and rhetorically pro-Palestinian, though it operates through political rather than armed-resistance channels.
  • model GPT -3.0 It has tended to oppose normalization and back Palestinian solidarity without becoming an Iran-aligned actor.
  • model Claude -3.0 Sadiq al-Mahdi's legacy of opposing normalization with Israel tilts it toward the anti-normalization camp, pursued politically.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Prefers negotiation; not aligned with Iran axis.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Participates in Taqaddum and civilian coalitions pursuing negotiated stability.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +3.0 The party favors negotiated settlements and diplomatic engagement aligned with the regional stability camp.
  • model Grok +4.0 Prioritizes negotiated peace and stability over maximalist resistance alignments.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Aligns with the stability and normalization camp, maintaining strong ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Favors a stability-oriented regional approach and diplomatic resolution.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Regional stance provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.5
  • model MiniMax -3.0 DUP is anti-normalization with Israel and rhetorically aligned with Arab-cause positions, though not formally part of the armed resistance axis.
  • model GPT -2.0 It is anti-normalization and pro-Palestinian, but not tightly aligned with the armed Axis of Resistance.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Not aligned with Iran axis; open to Gulf engagement but no strong normalization push.
  • model Claude +2.0 Pragmatic establishment party leaning toward negotiated regional settlement, with lingering pro-Palestinian reservations about normalization.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Pursues mediatory role and stability, not aligned with armed resistance axis.
  • model Gemini +5.0 The DUP is closely aligned with the Egyptian-Gulf axis and supports regional stability and diplomatic settlement.
  • model Grok +5.0 Favors diplomatic stability and negotiated settlements rather than alignment with armed resistance networks.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Favors stability and diplomatic engagement over alignment with armed resistance networks.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Aligned with the stability camp, maintaining close ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
• Authenticity and Modernity Party MA State & religion provisional ↔ 9 pt +3.0
  • model Gemma -3.0 Accepts the monarch's religious authority and the official role of Islam in the state.
  • model Kimi -2.0 PAM accepts the Moroccan model where the King is Commander of the Faithful and religion informs state.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Accepts king’s religious authority but no drive for secularization.
  • model GPT +2.0 PAM is modernist and civil-oriented while accepting the king’s religious role.
  • model Claude +3.0 Secular-leaning modernist counterweight to the Islamists.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 PAM is not a religious party; secular in orientation though not radical, operates within Morocco's religious-monarchical framework.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Supports a civil state while acknowledging the King's religious authority.
  • model Grok +5.0 Favors tolerant Islam within national constants alongside human rights and citizenship; leans toward secular governance over religious legal authority.
  • model Gemini +6.0 Promotes a civil state model that opposes the political use of religion, favoring secularized legislation.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB Gender equality provisional ↔ 9 pt +1.0
  • model Gemma -4.0 Maintains traditional patriarchal views on family and gender roles.
  • model Kimi -3.0 FPM is a conservative Christian party with traditional views on gender roles and family law; it does not prioritize gender equality reforms.
  • model Qwen -2.0 FPM includes women in leadership but maintains conservative positions on family law and gender roles.
  • model Grok -2.0 Maronite Christian base and church influence on family law result in conservative positions on gender roles and personal status; limited progressive advocacy.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 FPM has some female representation and progressive rhetoric but its Maronite Christian base holds largely traditional views on family law.
  • model GPT +2.0 It accepts women’s public participation but is not a strongly feminist party.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Supports some reforms but avoids challenging religious personal status laws strongly.
  • model Claude +3.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Moderate Christian party with modest support for women's representation.
  • model Gemini +5.0 FPM's declared platform supports gender equality and reforms to personal status laws to empower women.
• Hezbollah LB Traditionalism vs modernization provisional ↔ 9 pt -4.5
  • model Qwen -7.0 Hezbollah blends modern military capacity with deep social traditionalism, resisting institutional modernization.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Rejects social modernization; preserves traditional religious authority structures.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Hezbollah is deeply traditionalist on social and institutional matters, opposing modernization of family law, women's rights, and religious authority in public life; it uses technology for resistance, not social modernization.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Prioritizes religious tradition and social conservatism over modernization.
  • model Claude -5.0 Religiously traditionalist on social and family questions despite modern media use.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Hezbollah combines religious traditionalism with selective technological and military modernization but resists social liberalization.
  • model Grok -2.0 Pursues selective high-tech military modernization for asymmetric capabilities while maintaining socially traditionalist and ideologically rigid framework on gender, culture, and morals.
  • model GPT -2.0 It runs modern institutions but anchors them in conservative religious ideology.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Hezbollah utilizes highly modern technological and institutional management while maintaining traditional social values.
• DFLP PS Civil liberties provisional ↔ 9 pt +2.5
  • model Gemma -4.0 Ideological commitment to Marxist-Leninist state control typically restricts individual liberties.
  • model Kimi -2.0 DFLP advocates for civil liberties in its platform but operates within PLO/PA structures with limited practical record on expanding freedoms in areas it influences.
  • model Claude +2.0 Revolutionary-democratic rhetoric backs rights, but Leninist vanguard tradition tempers this; not in power.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 DFLP's declared platform supports civil liberties but as a Marxist-Leninist party its commitment to liberal pluralism is qualified.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 DFLP advocates for democratic freedoms but has limited record in power, leaning slightly toward expansion.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +4.0 DFLP's secular Marxist platform supports expanding civil liberties and democratic rights in principle for a future Palestinian state.
  • model GPT +5.0 Secular leftist platform emphasizes pluralism and political freedoms despite revolutionary heritage.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Secular leftist party that officially supports freedom of speech and protest.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Declared platform emphasizes civil liberties and protection of public freedoms against PA and Hamas restrictions.
• National Charter Party JO Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 9 pt +0.5
  • model Qwen -5.0 Supports gradual political reform but ultimately defends the monarchy's ultimate executive authority.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Defends the existing monarchical system with broad executive powers rather than liberal democratic checks.
  • model Grok -3.0 Endorses the limited parliamentary democracy under monarchical supremacy rather than pushing for robust liberal checks and opposition rights.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +0.0 Backs managed political modernization but is establishment-aligned rather than a liberal check.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Participates in limited democracy but does not challenge executive dominance or push for liberal checks
  • model Gemma +2.0 Accepts the existing limited democratic framework under the monarchy.
  • model GPT +2.0 It supports managed party development and parliamentary participation without challenging strong executive authority.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Formally pro-democracy but loyalist
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Civic-democratic platform with moderate liberal-democratic commitment, supportive of constitutional reform.
• Ta'al IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Ta'al advocates for equal rights and power-sharing for Palestinian citizens but does not push full federalism; mildly autonomy-leaning.
  • model Claude -3.0 Favors equal citizenship in a unitary state over federalism.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Arab nationalist; focuses on minority rights within Israel, not federalism.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Advocates for a unitary democratic state rather than federalism.
  • model GPT +2.0 Ta’al emphasizes Arab minority rights and equality rather than a formal federal model.
  • model Grok +3.0 Arab nationalist supports power-sharing and equality arrangements for Arab minority.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Supports decentralization for Arab minority.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Advocates for national minority rights and institutional power-sharing for Arab citizens.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Supports power-sharing and autonomy for Arabs.

  before · r1 grok +1.0gemini +1.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Islamic Action Front JO Regime stance provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.5
  • model Qwen -6.0 Seeks to overturn the monarchy's foundational executive dominance in favor of a purely parliamentary system.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Operates as the primary opposition and seeks fundamental changes to the monarchical political system.
  • model Grok -5.0 Critiques and seeks to reform the constitutional order to expand Islamic law and reduce monarchical prerogatives in favor of parliamentary/Islamic authority.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Critical of monarchy, wants constitutional reform, accepts electoral participation but rejects current order
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Operates legally within the system but strongly opposes the absolute executive powers of the monarchy.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Loyal opposition that criticizes but operates within constitutional monarchy; not seeking overthrow.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Accepts the Hashemite monarchy constitutionally while pushing for reform; not revolutionary but adversarial in practice.
  • model Claude +2.0 Loyal opposition operating within the constitutional monarchy despite friction with the palace.
  • model GPT +2.0 It is a loyal opposition that contests the monarchy’s policies without officially seeking to abolish the constitutional order.
• Reform Party JO Social provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -6.0 Conservative on social issues, favoring traditional values and religious moral authority with limited reformist openings.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Reflects the conservative, traditional social values of its tribal and religious base.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Maintains a traditionalist and conservative social outlook in line with broader societal norms.
  • model GPT -2.0 It likely sits in Jordan’s socially conservative mainstream absent evidence of libertarian social policy.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Generally conservative but moderately open to social change.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Moderately socially conservative, mainstream Jordanian social positioning
  • model Claude -2.0 Moderately conservative on social and moral questions.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Centrist; not strongly socially conservative or libertarian.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Reform-oriented likely leans socially moderate/permissive, but uncertain.
• Ennahda TN Gender equality provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model Grok -5.0 Ennahda's Islamist ideology and voter base favor traditional gender roles and resist full liberalization of family law and public gender norms.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Maintains a conservative view on family law and gender roles.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Opposed full equality in inheritance and resisted key personal-status code reforms during governance.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Claims gender equality support but opposed inheritance equality bill and under-represented women.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Ennahda officially respects women's rights but maintains a socially conservative, traditionalist view on gender roles.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Ennahda maintains conservative positions on family law and gender roles despite rhetorical support for women’s political participation.
  • model GPT +1.0 Ennahda accepts women's political participation and the Personal Status Code but remains cautious on inheritance and family-law liberalization.
  • model Claude +1.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Religiously conservative on family roles but accepted the Personal Status Code and backed electoral gender parity.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Ennahda has supported women's political participation but remains socially conservative on family law.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Rally of Independents MA Civil liberties provisional ↔ 8 pt -1.0
  • model Grok -5.0 Current ruling party presiding over continued restrictions on civil liberties, including crackdowns on protests, journalists, and online speech in recent years.
  • model Gemini -4.0 As the leading governing party, its record reflects acquiescence to state-imposed restrictions on public dissent and protest.
  • model Claude -3.0 Currently governing amid suppression of dissent and a restrictive liberties record.
  • model GPT -3.0 RNI leads government under continued restrictions on protest and dissent.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Pro-regime party that does not push for expanded liberties.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Status quo approach to civil liberties focused more on economic and business issues.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 RNI's record in government is unremarkable on civil liberties; it is part of the pro-monarchy establishment and has not pushed for expansion.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Generally moderate but prioritizes state stability and order.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +3.0 RNI operates within Morocco's constrained democratic space without leading civil liberties reform.
• Democratic National Rally DZ West alignment provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.5
  • model Claude -3.0 Follows Algeria's non-aligned posture tilting away from the West.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 RND is skeptical of Western intervention
  • model Gemini -2.0 The RND favors pragmatic economic cooperation with Western nations while adhering to Algeria's non-aligned stance.
  • model GPT -1.0 It supports nonalignment and sovereignty while maintaining pragmatic ties with Europe and the West.
  • model Qwen +1.0 Limited strategic alignment; maintains non-aligned posture despite some EU ties.
  • model Grok +2.0 Pragmatic strategic partnerships with EU/US for trade and security while maintaining multi-alignment.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Maintains strategic diplomatic and trade partnerships with the West.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Pro-Western strategically; maintains security and trade ties with EU.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Algeria under RND participation maintained close EU gas-trade ties and security cooperation with France and the US while keeping rhetorical distance.
• General People's Congress YE Regional stance provisional ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model MiniMax -2.0 GPC's anti-normalization rhetoric is strong, but its dominant faction now sits in the Saudi-backed coalition and PLC, giving it a mixed record leaning slightly toward the resistance camp on Israel.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 GPC formerly pro-Saudi but now fragmented; no clear regional alignment in 2026.
  • model GPT +1.0 Its divided factions are mostly pragmatic rather than consistently resistance-aligned or normalization-aligned.
  • model Kimi +2.0 GPC factions are split: some aligned with Saudi-led coalition (normalization camp), others with Houthis (resistance camp), making overall stance ambiguous.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Pragmatic and split, with the recognized-government wing in the Saudi-led stability camp.
  • model Grok +5.0 The GPC pursued pragmatic cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Western partners against shared threats such as AQAP while avoiding alignment with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
  • model Gemma +5.0 They generally align with regional stability and the Gulf consensus.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The mainstream, internationally recognized factions of the GPC align with the regional stability camp, favoring negotiated settlements and Gulf backing.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Aligned with the Saudi-led coalition, favoring regional stability and normalization over resistance.
• Yemeni Socialist Party YE Regional stance provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.0
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 YSP opposes normalization with Israel but is not part of Axis of Resistance; uneasy with Iran.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 YSP rhetorically sides with anti-normalization and Palestinian resistance but works in the Saudi coalition and lacks operational alignment with the Axis of Resistance, leaving a mild anti-normalization lean.
  • model GPT -2.0 Its leftist anti-normalization instincts lean resistance-adjacent without Iran-bloc alignment.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Secular and anti-imperialist, supporting Palestine but not aligning with the Islamist Axis of Resistance.
  • model Claude +2.0 Secular leftist pursuing aims politically rather than via armed resistance.
  • model Grok +2.0 As a secular leftist party opposing both Houthis and Islah, the YSP is not aligned with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance and maintains a pragmatic, non-maximalist regional posture.
  • model Kimi +3.0 YSP opposes Houthi expansion but is not part of the Saudi-led coalition; it seeks negotiated settlement and is critical of foreign intervention.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The YSP rejects armed resistance axes, instead advocating for diplomatic negotiations and regional stability to resolve conflicts.
  • model Gemma +5.0 They favor diplomatic stability over armed regional conflict.
• El Insaf (Equity Party) MR Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.0
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 El Insaf is a Mauritanian nationalist party focused on domestic stability rather than pan-Arab ideological projects.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Focuses on Mauritanian national identity and internal dynamics rather than pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The party primarily emphasizes Mauritanian nation-state sovereignty and national unity over transnational pan-Arab integration.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Mauritania is an Arab League member but El Insaf frames politics primarily in national-development terms rather than pan-Arabist ideology.
  • model Claude +1.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Building the Arab Maghreb, the Arab Nation, African and Islamic unity.
  • model Grok +2.0 Party engages Arab League and Palestinian causes but prioritizes Mauritanian national stability and interests over transnational pan-Arab ideology.
  • model GPT +3.0 It uses Arab-Islamic solidarity language but is mainly a Mauritanian state-party rather than a pan-Arab movement.
  • model Kimi +3.0 El Insaf balances pan-Arab solidarity with pragmatic nation-state priorities and African Union engagement.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Maintains a general sense of Arab solidarity but focuses primarily on Mauritanian state interests.
• Lebanese Forces LB Gender equality provisional ↔ 8 pt +1.5
  • model MiniMax -3.0 LF's Maronite Christian base holds patriarchal views on family law despite some female political representation.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Maintains traditional views on gender and family roles.
  • model Kimi -3.0 LF is a conservative Christian party with traditional views on gender roles and family; while not as extreme as Islamist parties, it does not prioritize gender equality reforms.
  • model Qwen -1.0 LF includes women but maintains conservative positions on family law and gender roles.
  • model GPT +1.0 It supports women’s public representation but keeps conservative family-law instincts.
  • model Claude +2.0 Moderate, with modest support for women's political representation.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Supports some gender equality but not a priority; socially moderate.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +4.0 Supports increased women's political representation and legal equality while navigating conservative Christian voter base; more progressive than Islamist parties.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Lebanese Forces' declared platform supports gender equality, women's empowerment, and civil status rights.
• Kataeb Party LB Palestinian question provisional ↔ 8 pt -1.5
  • model Gemma -6.0 Historically opposed to Palestinian influence in Lebanon; now offers conditional
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Historically opposed armed Palestinian presence; supports Palestinian state but not right of return to Lebanon.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Kataeb opposes the permanent naturalization and presence of Palestinian refugees within Lebanon.
  • model Grok -4.0 Supports Palestinian statehood in principle but prioritizes Lebanese sovereignty; historically opposed armed PLO presence and operations from Lebanon.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Kataeb historically opposed Palestinian presence in Lebanon and supports Palestinian right of return rather than permanent settlement; it is not strongly pro-Palestinian rights, focusing more on Lebanese sovereignty concerns.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -1.0 Lebanese-nationalist and historically anti-PLO; cautious despite nominal support for statehood.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 Kataeb supports Palestinian humanitarian concerns but opposes armed resistance and demands Palestinian disarmament in Lebanon.
  • model GPT +1.0 It accepts Palestinian rights in principle while strongly opposing armed presence and resettlement.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Kataeb sympathizes with Palestinians but prioritizes Lebanese state sovereignty and refugee return.
• Israeli Labor Party IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 8 pt -4.0
  • model Grok -8.0 Zionist center-left committed to strong unitary Jewish-democratic state structure.
  • model Claude -6.0 Mainstream Zionist party committed to a unitary central state.
  • model Gemini -6.0 Supports a strong, unitary centralized state structure typical of historical Zionist governance.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Strongly centralist Zionist tradition; opposes power-sharing threatening Jewish majority.
  • model GPT -5.0 Labor supports a unitary Israeli state with negotiated territorial separation rather than federalism.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Traditionally centralist but open to some regional autonomy.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Labor is a centrist Zionist party that supports a unitary Jewish-democratic state with limited regional autonomy.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Generally prefers a unitary state structure.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Historically supports a unitary state with territorial compromises rather than federalism.

  before · r1 grok -8.0gemini -3.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Fatah PS Liberal democracy provisional ↔ 8 pt -5.0
  • model Qwen -7.0 Has repeatedly delayed elections and governed by decree, weakening democratic checks.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Its record in power is characterized by executive dominance, rule by decree, and the indefinite postponement of elections.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Record in office shows significant erosion of democratic checks and avoidance of elections.
  • model Grok -6.0 Fatah's record shows weak liberal democracy: extended presidential terms without elections since 2005 and limited institutional checks on executive power.
  • model GPT -6.0 Fatah-led PA rule has postponed elections and weakened checks on executive authority.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Fatah under Abbas has weakened judiciary, cracked down on opposition, and delayed elections, scoring poorly on liberal democracy.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Fatah has not held PA elections since 2006, suppressed opposition, and President Abbas has ruled by decree; while it participates in elections when held, its record in office shows weak commitment to liberal democratic checks.
  • re-coder Re-coder C -2.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the democracy axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • model Claude -0.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds PA record: no national elections since 2006, presidential term indefinitely extended, weak judiciary.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the democracy axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
• Hamas PS Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 8 pt -5.0
  • model Qwen -8.0 Advocates for a highly centralized Islamic emirate rather than power-sharing.
  • model Gemini -8.0 Advocates for a unitary centralist state across historical Palestine and opposes regional or federal division.
  • model GPT -7.0 Hamas favors a unified Palestinian polity under centralized Islamic-national resistance leadership.
  • model Grok -6.0 Hamas exercises centralized authoritarian control in Gaza and envisions unitary Islamic governance over Palestinian territories.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Governs through a centralized
  • model Claude -5.0 Envisions a unitary Islamic-national state, not federal power-sharing.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Hamas has governed Gaza as a centralized authority since 2007 and has not shown interest in federalist power-sharing arrangements that would dilute its control.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Hamas envisions a unitary Islamic Palestinian state and does not advocate power-sharing among regions or sects.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Hamas prefers a centralized Islamic state but has shown pragmatic acceptance of local governance in Gaza.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• PFLP PS Regime stance provisional ↔ 8 pt -7.0
  • model Gemma -10.0 Rejects the current PA order and the state of Israel.
  • model Qwen -9.0 Rejects the PA as a collaborationist entity and opposes the Zionist state.
  • model GPT -8.0 It rejects the Oslo-centered PA order and positions itself as revolutionary opposition.
  • model MiniMax -8.0 PFLP rejects the PLO/PA order and has boycotted or worked to undermine it from the outside.
  • model Grok -7.0 PFLP rejects the Oslo Accords and PA order as capitulationist and actively mobilizes to undermine and replace the existing framework.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Rejects the Oslo Accords and actively opposes the constitutional framework of the current Fatah-led Palestinian Authority.
  • model Claude -5.0 Rejects the Oslo framework while remaining inside the PLO.
  • model Kimi -4.0 PFLP rejects the Oslo-created PA order and has been critical of Fatah's governance, though it remains within the PLO framework; it seeks to transform rather than overturn the foundational order entirely.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL West alignment provisional ↔ 8 pt +0.0
  • model Kimi -2.0 Mixed; pragmatic engagement but Islamist constituency skeptical of Western policies.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Maintains a cautious and generally skeptical posture toward Western regional interventions.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Ra'am is skeptical of Western alignment and rejects Western cultural liberalism but pragmatically engages with the Israeli establishment backed by the US.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Critical but not hostile.
  • model Claude +0.0 Largely neutral and pragmatic on Western alignment.
  • model Gemma +0.0 Neutral to skeptical.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 Ra’am is mainly domestically focused and not strongly aligned against the Western bloc.
  • model Grok +4.0 Pragmatic engagement with Israeli system and Western-aligned governance for gains.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Pragmatic and relatively open to Western engagement and investment.

  before · r1 gemini -3.0grok +1.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Reform Party JO State & religion provisional ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 Supports the constitutional status quo of Islam as the official religion of the state.
  • model Grok -4.0 Advocates greater role for Islamic values in law and society while stopping short of full theocratic state.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Supports the constitutional role of Islam in state affairs and public life.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Respects the role of religion in the state without seeking a theocratic structure.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Accepts moderate religious role in state, not pushing for secularism
  • model GPT -2.0 It likely accepts Islamic public references without a clearly theocratic platform.
  • model Claude -1.0 Moderate stance with slight religious presence.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Secular-leaning; no agenda to impose religious law.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Reform framing implies moderate secular orientation, but lack of specific positions on religious authority.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Hadash IL Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 7 pt +1.0
  • model Grok -3.0 Favors strong unitary state with full Jewish-Arab equality rather than federal or sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Claude -2.0 Favors a single equal-citizenship state; communist centralism over federal power-sharing.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Supports minority rights and power-sharing but not explicitly federalist framework.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Hadash's platform favors a democratic secular state with minority autonomy but is not explicitly federalist; mild communal-autonomy lean.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Supports a unitary democratic state rather than federalism.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Supports a unitary state structure but demands national autonomy and equal rights for the Arab minority.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Preference for centralism but supports minority rights.
  • model GPT +2.0 Hadash emphasizes equality and minority rights more than explicit federal restructuring.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Supports decentralized power and minority protections.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.

  before · r1 grok -3.0gemini +0.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Fatah PS Gender equality provisional ↔ 7 pt +2.0
  • model Gemma -3.0 Maintains a predominantly patriarchal structure despite official rhetoric on equality.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Broad tent movement but dominated by patriarchal structures in leadership and society.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Fatah nominally supports women's rights and has some female representation, but Palestinian family law remains conservative and Fatah has not pushed aggressively for gender equality reforms.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Fatah rhetorically supports women's rights but maintains traditional gender structures in practice.
  • model Claude +3.0 Secular nationalist backing women's representation and quotas, but personal-status law stays religious.
  • model Grok +3.0 Fatah promotes women's political participation through quotas and secular rhetoric but has not fundamentally reformed conservative personal status laws.
  • model GPT +4.0 It officially supports women’s public participation while preserving conservative personal-status constraints.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Supports women's political representation and international conventions like CEDAW, though family status laws remain traditional.
• Islamic Action Front JO Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 7 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Advocates for a strong, unified central state and opposes any federalist fragmentation of Jordan.
  • model Grok -8.0 Advocates a strong unitary central state governed by Islamic principles rather than federal or regional power-sharing.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Supports the unitary nature of the Jordanian state.
  • model GPT -6.0 IAF works within a unitary Jordanian state and does not advocate federal power-sharing.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Advocates for a unitary Jordanian state without regional or sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Claude -3.0 National Islamist party with a unitary, centralist conception of the state.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Supports strong central state with Islamist governance
  • model MiniMax -2.0 IAF does not push federalism; favors a unitary Jordanian state with Islamic orientation.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Strongly centralist, supports Jordanian unitary state with no regional power-sharing
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Charter Party JO Civil liberties provisional ↔ 7 pt -1.0
  • model Gemini -4.0 Prioritizes state security and public order over the expansion of protest and dissent freedoms.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Prioritizes state security and political stability over the expansion of civil liberties.
  • model Grok -3.0 Accepts regulated political space and limits on liberties deemed necessary for national stability and regime security.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Prioritizes state stability and order over the expansion of liberal dissent.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +0.0 Establishment-aligned and centrist, neither strongly expansive nor overtly restrictive.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Mildly supportive of civil liberties but operates within regime constraints on dissent
  • model GPT +1.0 It endorses reform rhetoric but stays close to a state-centered model that accepts limits on dissent.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Moderately supportive of civil liberties but within regime security bounds.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Generally supportive of political reforms and freedoms; positioned as a moderate civic party.
• National Charter Party JO State & religion provisional ↔ 7 pt -1.5
  • model Gemini -4.0 Endorses the status quo where Islam is the state religion and a primary source of moral guidance.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports the state's existing religious framework.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Accepts religious role in state, does not push for secular separation
  • model GPT -3.0 It accepts the monarchy’s religious legitimacy and Islamic public references without advocating theocracy.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Accepts Islam as the state religion and Sharia as a source of legislation, consistent with the constitution.
  • model Claude -1.0 Reflects Jordan's moderate official religiosity, leaning slightly to religious presence.
  • model Grok -1.0 Accepts Islam as the state religion per the constitution while favoring a pragmatic, non-theocratic governance model.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Accepts Islam as state religion but not clerical rule; vaguely secular in practice.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Moderate secular orientation; supports civil state within Jordanian consensus on religion's role.
• Reform Party JO Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 7 pt -5.0
  • model Gemini -9.0 Strongly endorses the centralist unitary state structure of the Jordanian Kingdom.
  • model Grok -7.0 Favors maintaining Jordan's centralized unitary state while allowing limited administrative reforms.
  • model Qwen -7.0 Supports a centralized state structure aligned with tribal and national unity.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Supports the existing unitary state structure.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Centralist, supports unitary Jordanian state structure
  • model GPT -5.0 It appears to operate within ordinary Jordanian unitary-party politics rather than federalist reform.
  • model Claude -3.0 Likely centralist national orientation; identity uncertain.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 No clear federalist agenda; supports central state with local reforms.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 No clear federalist agenda; likely centralist given Jordanian political context.
• United Torah Judaism IL Regime stance provisional ↔ 6 pt +5.5
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Accepts Zionist order but not fully committed to democracy.
  • model Grok +2.0 Theologically anti-Zionist but de facto accepts and participates in state for religious funding and autonomy.
  • model Claude +3.0 Historically non-Zionist but pragmatically loyal to the state.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Non-Zionist but pragmatically participates in and supports Israeli government.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Accepts the state
  • model GPT +6.0 UTJ pragmatically accepts the state order while seeking maximal Haredi exemptions and authority.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 UTJ accepts Israel's existence as a Jewish state and works within its constitutional order, though it rejects its secular elements.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Accepts the state but seeks to infuse it with Haredi religious authority.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Loyal to the state institutions while prioritizing the preservation of its religious status quo.

  before · r1 gemini +0.0grok +7.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Hamas PS Iran posture provisional ↔ 6 pt +7.0
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Hamas has had tactical alignment with Iran, though relations have fluctuated due to Sunni-Shia tensions.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Hamas has received significant financial, military, and political support from Iran, though the relationship has had tensions; it is generally aligned with Iran in the regional resistance axis.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Hamas has been a close ally of Iran since the Syrian civil war
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +7.0 It maintains major strategic and military alignment with Iran despite periodic tensions.
  • model Claude +7.0 Receives Iranian funding and arms within the resistance axis despite the past Syria rift.
  • model Gemma +9.0 Strongly aligned with Iran for financial
  • model Grok +9.0 Hamas maintains a close strategic and military alliance with Iran, receiving funding, weapons, and coordination as a core Axis of Resistance member.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Maintains a close, vital strategic and military alliance with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
  • model Qwen +10.0 Receives extensive funding, training, and strategic direction from Iran.
• DFLP PS Regional stance provisional ↔ 6 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Aligns with the anti-normalization framework and supports resistance against Israeli occupation, rejecting regional normalization deals.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Aligns with the resistance camp and opposes normalization with Israel.
  • model Claude -7.0 Rejectionist-left tradition, anti-normalization and aligned with the resistance camp.
  • model GPT -6.0 It remains aligned with armed-resistance and anti-normalization politics more than regional accommodation.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok -4.0 DFLP maintains a resistance heritage within the PLO but has engaged with political processes and negotiated frameworks more than hardline rejectionists.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 DFLP rejects normalization but is less aligned with Iran-led Axis than Hamas; leans resistance with some pragmatism.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Part of the PLO's negotiated approach but maintains leftist anti-imperialist rhetoric.
  • model Kimi -2.0 DFLP is based in Syria and has received Syrian support, placing it somewhat closer to the resistance camp, though it has historically been more pragmatic and supported negotiation frameworks.
• Islamic Action Front JO Economic provisional ↔ 6 pt -1.0
  • model Kimi -4.0 Favors state-led welfare and social justice over free market, though not fully communist
  • model Gemma -3.0 Favors social justice and state-led welfare over neoliberal market mechanisms.
  • model Grok -3.0 Supports Islamic economics blending private enterprise with state-guided social justice, zakat, and anti-usury measures rather than pure market liberalism.
  • model GPT -3.0 Its platform mixes Islamic social justice and welfare with acceptance of private enterprise.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Mixed but leans statist due to Islamist social justice rhetoric and anti-usury regulation.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Balances support for private enterprise with an Islamist emphasis on social welfare and charity.
  • model Claude +1.0 Mixed model blending market activity with social welfare and zakat-style redistribution.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Supports a market economy with Islamic-finance leanings and a social safety net; mild market-friendly overall.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Supports private market mechanisms while advocating for Islamic welfare and state protection of strategic assets.
• Jordanian Communist Party JO Centralism vs federalism provisional ↔ 6 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Adheres to traditional leftist principles favoring a highly centralized unitary state model.
  • model Grok -7.0 Favors a strong centralized unitary state to enact socialist transformation, consistent with Marxist democratic centralism.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Generally favors a unitary state structure.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Maintains a traditional communist preference for a strong, centralized unitary state.
  • model GPT -5.0 It generally favors a unified centralized state rather than regional or sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Claude -3.0 Centralist, unitary-state outlook typical of Arab communist parties.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Supports unitary state, no particular federalist agenda in Jordanian context
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Traditionally centralist
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Historically centralist; Jordanian communists favor a unitary state with class-based rather than regional representation.
• Jordanian Communist Party JO West alignment provisional ↔ 6 pt -7.0
  • model Gemma -10.0 Strongly anti-imperialist and opposed to Western strategic alignment.
  • model Gemini -10.0 Firmly opposes strategic and security alignment with the United States and Western blocs.
  • model GPT -8.0 Its anti-imperialist line is hostile to US-led Western strategic alignment.
  • model Grok -8.0 Traditional communist hostility to Western imperialism, capitalism, and strategic alliances with the US and NATO powers.
  • model Claude -7.0 Anti-Western, anti-imperialist strategic posture.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Anti-Western, anti-imperialist, opposed to US and NATO strategic alignment
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Anti-imperialist
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Maintains a traditional leftist, anti-imperialist stance against Western geopolitical dominance.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Historically anti-Western and anti-imperialist; current posture more nuanced but still broadly critical of US alignment.
• Progressive Socialist Party LB Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 6 pt +4.0
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +2.0 Founded with explicit pan-Arab socialist ideology; retains some rhetorical and identity residue though practical politics now more Lebanon- and Druze-focused.
  • model Kimi +3.0 PSP has Arab nationalist roots (Kamal Jumblatt) and emphasizes Lebanon's Arab identity; however, under Walid and now Taymour it has become more pragmatic and particularist, scoring moderately positive.
  • model Claude +3.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds The founding charter is robustly Arab-nationalist (a secular democratic Arab union) — note: the modern Jumblatt-era party is far more Lebanese-particularist than this founding doctrine.
  • model GPT +4.0 It retains Arabist and left-nationalist themes alongside Druze community politics.
  • model Qwen +5.0 PSP retains pan-Arab sympathies from its Nasserist origins, though less emphasized under Taymour Jumblatt.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Strongly identifies with pan-Arab solidarity and nationalist traditions.
  • model Gemini +6.0 PSP maintains strong ideological roots in pan-Arab solidarity and anti-normalization politics.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Founded by Kamal Jumblatt in the Nasserist/Arab socialist tradition
• PFLP PS Pan-Arab vs particularist provisional ↔ 5 pt +6.0
  • model MiniMax +4.0 PFLP retains significant pan-Arab and Marxist internationalist framing in its ideology.
  • model Kimi +4.0 PFLP was founded with strong pan-Arab Nasserist and Marxist orientation, and while it has become more Palestinian-focused, it retains significant pan-Arab solidarity framing in its rhetoric and alliances.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +5.0 PFLP was founded with a strong pan-Arab revolutionary vision linking Palestinian struggle to broader Arab anti-imperialist and socialist transformation.
  • model Gemini +6.0 Retains its historic Arab nationalist roots, framing the Palestinian struggle within a broader pan-Arab socialist revolution.
  • model Claude +6.0 Rooted in the Arab Nationalist Movement with a strong pan-Arab framing.
  • model GPT +8.0 It has a strong Arab-nationalist and anti-imperialist framework alongside Palestinian liberation.
  • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly frames its struggle within a pan-Arab and anti-imperialist movement.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Deeply rooted in secular pan-Arab nationalism and solidarity.
• Yisrael Beiteinu IL Civil liberties provisional ↔ 5 pt +0.5
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Yisrael Beiteinu restricts civil liberties for non-Jews/Arabs but is secular on Jewish internal freedoms; mixed restrictive profile.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Occasional calls to restrict liberties for security reasons.
  • model Claude +0.0 Secular liberties at home but security-restrictive measures toward Arabs.
  • model Gemini +0.0 Balances support for secular individual liberties with demands for restrictive loyalty laws regarding minorities.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is secular on domestic liberties but hawkish and exclusionary toward Arab political claims.
  • model Grok +2.0 Security hawk supports restrictive measures on hostile populations and expression.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Secular but nationalist, supporting civil liberties for citizens but restricting them for security opponents.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Mixed; nationalist but not systematically repressive.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Secular but nationalist; supports some liberties while restricting Arab dissent.

  before · r1 gemini -7.0grok +3.0 no definitions — excluded from the median