Tayyar.

transparency · the panel in full

Rater panel

Every published position is the median of a rater panel (see methodology §5). This page shows the panel with nothing hidden: for each cell where two or more raters scored, where each rater landed on the −10…+10 scale, the synthesised median, and the reasoning behind each score. Contested cells — where raters diverge sharply — are surfaced first.

Who's on the panel, and what the rounds mean
prior Author baseline
The author's hand-coded first read — one estimate per cell that seeds the panel. It is pooled into the median for now and retires as independent votes accumulate. The one non-model signal so far.
model The language-model panel
Nine language models from eight labs (Claude, Gemini, GPT, Gemma, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen, MiniMax), each scoring the cell independently and blind against the shared rubric. Their median, with the prior, is the published number.
re-coder coder-b · coder-c
An early internal pilot: two LLM second-pass re-readers over 63 sampled cells, 21 per round, each cell scored once by each, measuring how consistently the rubric reproduces a score. They count in the median for those cells. A reliability floor, not a human check; true human anchors are a later round.

Rounds. r2 is the live panel — the scores that make the median. r1 is a no-definitions “before” pass, shown only as a dashed reference (did the rubric sharpen the scores?) and excluded from the median. The other no-definitions round (r1b) and the pre-registered declared-vs-behavioral study are not shown and never enter the median. A rater scored more than once shows a “N× rounds” tag; the median across its rounds is what's plotted.

1004 multi-rater cells 53 contested 803 settled 148 provisional 10,198 ratings behind them
53 shown

53 of 1004 multi-rater cells match. Single-rater cells (priors awaiting a second rater) are left out; they carry one score and appear on each entity's own page.

  • Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Regime stance contested ↔ 19 pt -1.0
    • model Gemma -10.0 Exists specifically to overthrow the current Syrian constitutional order.
    • model Gemini -10.0 As an insurgent group, HTS is fully dedicated to overthrowing and replacing Syria's existing constitutional order.
    • model Qwen -10.0 Formed explicitly to overthrow the Assad regime and remains its most potent armed opponent.
    • model Grok -9.0 HTS directly overthrew the Ba'ath Assad regime in 2024 and rejects the legitimacy of the old constitutional political order.
    • model DeepSeek -9.0 Explicitly seeks to overthrow the Syrian Ba'athist republic and replace it with an Islamic state.
    • model Claude +7.0 Now the incumbent building and defending the new constitutional order it founded.
    • model GPT +8.0 As the dominant new authority, it defends the emerging post-Assad governing order.
    • model MiniMax +8.0 As of 2026 HTS is the de facto ruling authority of Syria and is building a new foundational order
    • model Kimi +8.0 HTS overthrew the Assad regime and now constitutes the new governing authority, defending its own constitutional order through the March 2025 transitional framework.
    • prior Author baseline +9.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • Otzma Yehudit IL Regional stance contested ↔ 17 pt +3.0
    • prior Author baseline -8.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Gemma -5.0 Maximalist and generally hostile to regional compromises.
    • model Gemini -4.0 Rejects regional diplomatic compromises, prioritizing unilateral military power over normalization stability.
    • model Kimi -3.0 Hardline anti-Arab but not explicitly aligned with resistance axis; more focused on internal Jewish supremacy.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 Otzma Yehudit broadly supports normalization with anti-Iran Arab states but rejects any Palestinian accommodation; mild positive on regional stance.
    • model Claude +4.0 Maximalist on Palestinians but accepts Gulf normalization.
    • model Grok +4.0 Hawkish against resistance axis; supports normalization only if it strengthens Jewish control.
    • model GPT +5.0 It supports anti-Iran regional alignment but is skeptical of concessions tied to normalization.
    • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-normalization with Gulf states.
    • model Qwen +9.0 Extreme hawkish posture against the resistance axis.

    before · r1 gemini -9.0grok -6.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

  • Long Live Tunisia TN Regime stance contested ↔ 16 pt +0.0
    • model Gemma -6.0 Rejects the current order and defends the post-2011 democratic framework.
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Oppositional to post-2011 order but not seeking violent overthrow.
    • model Grok -4.0 Originally a pillar of the post-revolutionary constitutional order, Tahya Tounes has become critical of Saied's suspension of democratic institutions and rule by decree.
    • model Gemini -3.0 The party has been largely sidelined by Kais Saied's concentration of power and remains quietly critical.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 Originated as Chahed's pro-government party within the post-2011 order; now marginalized under Saied but still formally accepts republican constitutional framework.
    • model Kimi +3.0 Loyal to 2014 constitutional order, opposed to Saied's authoritarian constitutional changes.
    • model Claude +4.0 Loyal to the 2014 democratic constitutional order.
    • model GPT +7.0 It accepts and defends Tunisia's republican constitutional order.
    • model Qwen +10.0 Fully supports and embodies the current post-2022 constitutional order.
  • Free Destourian Party TN Regime stance contested ↔ 16 pt +0.0
    • model Qwen -8.0 Vehemently opposes post-2011 order and especially Saied’s 2022 constitution; wants restoration of old regime ethos.
    • model Gemini -8.0 The PDL strongly opposes Kais Saied's regime for sidelining and persecuting its leadership.
    • model Kimi -3.0 Proposes Third Republic with new constitution, rejecting both Saied's and 2014 orders.
    • model DeepSeek -2.0 It has been critical of the post-2011 order but operates within it; mildly anti-regime.
    • model Claude +0.0 Rejects both the post-2011 order and Saied's project, wanting a restored old Destourian state.
    • model Grok +1.0 PDL's stance has evolved from tactical support for Saied's anti-Islamist moves to opposition against unchecked presidential authoritarianism while remaining loyal to the republican state framework.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model MiniMax +7.0 Defended Ben Ali-era strong-republican order and aligned with Saied's restoration of executive authority.
    • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly supports the current state order and leadership.
  • Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY West alignment contested ↔ 15 pt -0.5
    • model Qwen -10.0 Originated from Al-Qaeda and maintains a fundamentally hostile ideological posture toward the West.
    • model Gemma -9.0 Strategically hostile toward Western powers.
    • model DeepSeek -8.0 Designated terrorist group by US/EU; hostile to Western powers and refuses diplomatic engagement.
    • model Gemini -6.0 HTS remains ideologically anti-Western and is designated as a terrorist group, despite recent efforts to signal pragmatic non-hostility.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +1.0 It seeks Western engagement and sanctions relief but is not strategically pro-Western.
    • model MiniMax +3.0 Post-2024 HTS has engaged strategically with the US and EU on counterterrorism
    • model Grok +4.0 HTS leadership engages Western capitals for recognition and sanctions relief showing pragmatic pro-engagement strategic posture.
    • model Claude +5.0 Sharply reoriented toward the West, winning sanctions relief and delisting through engagement.
    • model Kimi +5.0 HTS has strategically pivoted toward Western engagement, seeking sanctions relief, diplomatic normalization, and was removed from US and UN terror lists in 2025.
  • Hezbollah LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 15 pt -3.5
    • model Qwen -9.0 Hezbollah strongly supports Lebanon’s sectarian consociational system as it entrenches Shia political power.
    • model Grok -8.0 Strongly opposes federalism or decentralization that would create autonomous regions and potentially dilute its cross-Lebanon influence and demographic leverage in central decisions.
    • model Gemini -8.0 Hezbollah strictly rejects federalism or partition, viewing it as a threat to national unity and resistance.
    • model Claude -5.0 Centralist; opposes federalism or partition that would fragment the state it dominates.
    • model Gemma -4.0 Generally supports a unitary state
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 Prefers strong central state with Shia influence; opposes federalism.
    • model MiniMax -2.0 Hezbollah accepts the existing confessional system to defend Shia rights but ideologically prefers a strong central Islamic state model.
    • model GPT +2.0 Hezbollah accepts Lebanon’s power sharing system while rejecting partition or full federalism.
    • model Kimi +4.0 Hezbollah operates as a state-within-a-state in Shia areas and benefits from power-sharing arrangements; while not explicitly federalist, its de facto autonomy and sectarian base push it toward the federalist pole.
    • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • Ennahda TN Regime stance contested ↔ 15 pt -4.5
    • model Gemini -9.0 Ennahda strongly opposes the current regime of Kais Saied, which has jailed its leaders and banned its activities.
    • model Grok -8.0 By 2026 Ennahda leaders are largely imprisoned or exiled and the party actively rejects Saied's presidential strongman regime and suspended democratic institutions.
    • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly opposes the current foundational order established by Kais Saied.
    • prior Author baseline -6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Qwen -5.0 Ennahda opposes the post-2021 constitutional order under President Saied as authoritarian.
    • model Kimi -4.0 Opposes Kais Saied's constitutional order, supports pre-2021 democratic framework.
    • model Claude +4.0 Defends the 2014 democratic-republican constitutional order against Saied's restructuring.
    • model MiniMax +5.0 Accepted post-2011 republican constitutional order and contested within it rather than seeking to overthrow it.
    • model GPT +6.0 Ennahda works within the Tunisian republican constitutional order rather than rejecting the state.
    • model DeepSeek +6.0 Ennahda participates within Tunisia’s post-2011 constitutional order and seeks reform
  • Progressive Socialist Party LB Sectarian power-sharing contested ↔ 15 pt -3.0
    • model Qwen -8.0 PSP is a sectarian party representing Druze interests within Lebanon’s confessional system.
    • model Kimi -5.0 PSP operates as a Druze sectarian party despite its historical rhetoric against confessionalism; it is widely perceived as serving Druze communal interests within the quota system, not pursuing a post-sectarian civic state.
    • model Gemma -4.0 Rhetorically advocates for a civic state
    • model GPT -4.0 It speaks civic language but remains anchored in Druze communal leadership.
    • model MiniMax -2.0 PSP rhetorically supports abolishing confessionalism but in practice operates within Druze communal politics and the system.
    • model Claude +2.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds A Druze confessional party benefiting from quotas despite secular-state rhetoric.
    • model Grok +2.0 Longstanding advocate for civil state, civil marriage, and de-sectarianization; participates in consociational system but pushes to transcend it.
    • model Gemini +7.0 PSP's official platform strictly advocates for the total abolition of political sectarianism and quotas.
  • People's Movement TN Regime stance contested ↔ 15 pt -3.5
    • model Qwen -7.0 Opposes Saied’s constitutional changes and authoritarian turn.
    • model Grok -6.0 People's Movement positions itself as a consistent opponent of authoritarian rule whether under Ben Ali, Ennahda-influenced coalitions, or Saied's personalist regime.
    • model Gemma -5.0 Generally opposes the established political elites.
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Oppositional to the current order but within republican framework.
    • model MiniMax -4.0 Opposed Bourguibist and Ben Ali orders; critical of post-2011 order as well from the radical-left.
    • model Kimi -3.0 Opposes Saied's authoritarian constitutional order, supports democratic framework.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Claude +5.0 Supports the current Saied-era political order.
    • model GPT +6.0 It supports a strong Tunisian republican state and has backed the current constitutional order.
    • model Gemini +8.0 The party is one of the principal political supporters of President Kais Saied's administration.
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad PS Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 15 pt -2.5
    • model Grok -6.0 PIJ operates within a distinctly Islamist framework that supersedes secular pan-Arab nationalist traditions.
    • model Gemini -5.0 Prioritizes pan-Islamic solidarity and Palestinian national jihad over secular pan-Arab political frameworks.
    • model Kimi -4.0 PIJ is an Islamist organization focused on Palestinian jihad; it has limited pan-Arab orientation and prioritizes Islamist and Palestinian particularist goals over Arab nationalism.
    • model MiniMax -3.0 PIJ frames its politics in Islamist and Palestinian-nationalist terms
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 PIJ focuses on Islamic umma rather than pan-Arabism, but uses anti-normalization rhetoric.
    • model Qwen -2.0 Prioritizes pan-Islamism over secular pan-Arab nationalism.
    • model Gemma +2.0 Frames struggle within a broader Islamic/Arab context but focuses on Palestinian goals.
    • model Claude +3.0 Frames the cause in pan-Islamic rather than strict nation-first terms.
    • model GPT +4.0 It uses Arab and Islamic resistance language, though its ideology is more Islamist than pan-Arab.
    • prior Author baseline +9.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • Free Destourian Party TN Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 14 pt -3.0
    • model Gemini -8.0 The party is firmly Tunisian nationalist (Bourguibist) and rejects pan-Arab political ideologies.
    • model Grok -8.0 The party's Bourguibist roots emphasize Tunisian national identity and state-building over pan-Arab solidarity or regional ideological projects.
    • model Kimi -7.0 Explicitly Tunisian nationalist, rejecting pan-Arabism in favor of nation-state-first frame.
    • model Claude -4.0 Bourguibist Tunisia-first particularism rather than Arab nationalism.
    • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 Primarily Tunisian nationalist
    • model Gemma +3.0 Balances Tunisian nationalism with a degree of Pan-Arab solidarity.
    • model Qwen +5.0 Rooted in Nasserist/Baathist-inspired Arab nationalism, though focused primarily on Tunisia.
    • model MiniMax +6.0 Inherits Bourguibist/Nasserist pan-Arab nationalist tradition; rhetorically Arab-solidarist.
  • Ba'ath Party (Syria) SY Sectarian power-sharing contested ↔ 14 pt -2.0
    • model GPT -6.0 Despite civic-secular rhetoric, its rule relied heavily on Alawite-linked security networks.
    • model Gemma -6.0 Claims civic nationalism but relies on Alawite sectarian networks for power.
    • model DeepSeek -6.0 Officially secular
    • model Kimi -4.0 Officially post-sectarian and civic, but in practice the party became a vehicle for Alawite network dominance, blurring the line between civic and sectarian governance.
    • model MiniMax -2.0 Ba'ath ideology is officially civic and pan-Arab post-sectarian
    • model Grok +6.0 Ba'ath promoted secular Arab civic nationalism and unitary state opposing formal sectarian quotas or consociational arrangements.
    • model Claude +6.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Officially secular civic-Arab nationalism rejecting confessional quotas, despite Alawite-network practice.
    • model Qwen +8.0 Officially champions a secular pan-Arab civic state and rejects formal sectarian power-sharing despite informal sectarian reliance.
    • model Gemini +8.0 The party's official ideology strictly rejects sectarian quotas or confessional governance, advocating for a non-sectarian civic state.
  • Tagammu Party EG Regime stance contested ↔ 14 pt +1.5
    • model Gemma -6.0 Critical of the current foundational order and regime.
    • model Qwen -5.0 Official opposition party, critical of both Sadat's infitah and Sisi's military rule.
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 Leftist opposition; critical of regime but accepts republican order.
    • model MiniMax -2.0 Critical of current regime but accepts republican constitutional order; populist opposition within system.
    • model Kimi +1.0 Ambiguous: historically reconciled with Mubarak, now marginal; nominally opposition but limited actual resistance.
    • model Grok +2.0 Accepts republican order in principle as defender of 1952 gains but maintains critical reformist stance toward specific regime policies and directions.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +4.0 It accepts the republic and has often aligned with the state against Islamist opposition.
    • model Claude +5.0 Loyal to the order, historically cooperative and anti-Islamist.
    • model Gemini +8.0 It strongly supports the post-2013 political order, viewing it as a vital defense against the threat of political Islam.
  • Sudanese Communist Party SD Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 14 pt +2.5
    • model Grok -7.0 Sudanese-focused nationalist communism with internationalist outlook rather than pan-Arab particularism.
    • model Gemini -5.0 The SCP rejects pan-Arabism in favor of a class-based internationalist and particularist Sudanese focus.
    • model Qwen -4.0 Focuses on Sudanese particularism and class struggle rather than pan-Arab nationalist solidarity.
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 Internationalist rather than pan-Arab; skeptical of bourgeois Arab nationalism.
    • model Claude +2.0 Its anti-imperialist, anti-normalization line aligns loosely with the pan-Arab pole, though class internationalism, not Arabism, drives it.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +3.0 Maintains Arab solidarity within internationalist communist framework.
    • model GPT +3.0 It supports Arab anti-imperialist causes but is more socialist-internationalist than strictly pan-Arab nationalist.
    • model MiniMax +4.0 SCP frames its politics through class-based internationalism and pan-Arab anti-imperialism, with a strong Arab-cause dimension alongside broader leftist solidarity.
    • model Gemma +7.0 Frames its struggle within a broader anti-imperialist Arab and African solidarity.
  • People's Movement TN Liberal democracy contested ↔ 13 pt +1.5
    • model Gemini -7.0 The party enthusiastically backed Kais Saied's suspension of parliament and rejection of liberal democratic checks.
    • model GPT -6.0 Its backing for Saied's authoritarian turn places it low on liberal-democratic checks and pluralism.
    • model Gemma -5.0 Prefers a populist executive over liberal-democratic constraints.
    • model Claude -4.0 Endorsed Saied's 2021 power grab, weak on liberal-democratic checks.
    • model Grok +1.0 While participating in elections and defending republican institutions, the party prioritizes substantive social and national sovereignty outcomes over procedural liberal checks and balances.
    • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 Formally democratic but Nasserist/Ba'athist legacy gives weaker liberal-democratic commitments.
    • model DeepSeek +2.0 Generally supports democratic processes but with left-wing populist tendencies.
    • model Qwen +6.0 Part of democratic opposition coalition; supports pluralism and institutional checks.
    • model Kimi +6.0 Democratic left party committed to liberal democratic institutions and checks.
  • Amal Movement LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 13 pt -3.5
    • model Qwen -8.0 Amal supports Lebanon's consociational system and sectarian power-sharing, opposing federalism or decentralization.
    • model Gemini -7.0 Amal strongly opposes federalism, advocating for a strong unified central state.
    • model Grok -7.0 Amal defends the unitary central state with sectarian power-sharing under Taif and opposes federal or strong decentralization proposals that could reduce its national influence.
    • model Gemma -6.0 Favors a strong unitary state to protect Shia interests across Lebanon.
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Favors Taif consociationalism but not federalism
    • model Claude -3.0 Defends the existing consociational order but is a centralist Lebanese-nationalist party, not a federalist one.
    • model MiniMax +3.0 Amal supports confessional power-sharing within a unitary Lebanese state
    • model GPT +3.0 Amal defends Lebanon’s confessional power sharing more than a fully unitary state.
    • model Kimi +3.0 Amal accepts Lebanon's consociational system and sectarian quotas as the speaker's party, but does not actively push federalism beyond existing confessional power-sharing.
    • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH Regional stance contested ↔ 13 pt +3.0
    • model DeepSeek -6.0 Opposes normalization with Israel and aligns with anti-normalization camp though not openly armed resistance.
    • model Gemini -5.0 Strongly opposes the Abraham Accords and normalization politics, though it rejects the Iranian axis.
    • model Claude -2.0 Anti-Iran Sunni and not resistance-aligned, but rhetorically opposed to Gulf-Israel normalization, leaving it slightly anti-normalization.
    • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +2.0 It is anti-normalization in rhetoric but aligned with Bahrain's pro-stability Sunni establishment rather than the Iran-led resistance axis.
    • model Kimi +4.0 Aligned with Gulf stability camp and Bahrain's pro-Western orientation, not resistance axis.
    • model MiniMax +5.0 Aligns with the pro-Gulf
    • model Qwen +6.0 It supports the government's pro-status quo
    • model Grok +6.0 Aligns with the pro-regime stability and normalization camp through its loyalist positions, distancing from Iran-aligned resistance axes and supporting Bahrain's Abraham Accords-era foreign policy orientation.
    • model Gemma +7.0 Aligns with the state's strategic tilt toward normalization and stability.
  • Kataeb Party LB Sectarian power-sharing contested ↔ 13 pt -4.0
    • model Gemini -7.0 Kataeb seeks to protect the sectarian power-sharing quota system to ensure Christian representation.
    • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly supports the consociational quota system to preserve Christian power.
    • model GPT -5.0 It remains Christian communitarian despite civic reform language.
    • model Kimi -5.0 Kataeb operates as a Christian sectarian party but has advocated for abolishing the political confessional system; it is caught between its sectarian base and post-sectarian rhetoric, leaning consociational.
    • model MiniMax -4.0 Kataeb has historically defended Christian confessional rights but rhetorically supports civic reform and decentralization.
    • model Grok -4.0 Accepts sectarian quotas as necessary minority protection but criticizes their corruption and advocates reforms toward greater civic equality.
    • model Claude +2.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds A civic-state, sovereigntist reformism, though historically a Christian confessional party.
    • model DeepSeek +3.0 Wants to reduce but not abolish sectarian quotas; advocates for a secular civil state.
    • model Qwen +6.0 Kataeb advocates for a civic, post-sectarian state and reducing confessional quotas.
  • Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG Regime stance contested ↔ 12 pt -1.0
    • model Kimi -6.0 Explicitly opposes the Sisi regime; Zahran ran as opposition candidate and party stands in firm opposition to ruling regime.
    • model Gemma -5.0 Acts as a critical opposition to the current political order.
    • model Qwen -4.0 Opposes the current authoritarian consolidation of the state.
    • model GPT -4.0 It accepts the republic but opposes the authoritarian post-2013 political order.
    • model DeepSeek -2.0 Opposes some aspects of current regime's authoritarian drift but accepts Egypt's republican constitutional order.
    • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Grok +3.0 Participates legally in the republican order while pushing democratic reforms; does not seek to overturn foundational state structure.
    • model MiniMax +4.0 Participates in Sisi-era elections; accepts republican constitutional order while seeking reform.
    • model Claude +5.0 Loyal to the constitutional order, contesting from within the system.
    • model Gemini +6.0 It operates as a legal opposition party that respects the foundational constitutional order of the Egyptian state.
  • People's Movement TN Civil liberties contested ↔ 12 pt +1.0
    • model Gemini -6.0 The party supports the current regime's restrictive security measures and suppression of political rivals.
    • model GPT -5.0 Its support for Saied's post-2021 concentration of power implies tolerance for restricting dissent.
    • model Gemma -4.0 Tends toward restrictive policies in the name of national stability.
    • model Claude -3.0 Backed Saied's concentration of power, implying tolerance for restriction.
    • model DeepSeek +0.0 Mixed record; supports rights but sometimes backs order-based restrictions.
    • model Grok +2.0 The party advocates civil liberties for workers and popular movements while subordinating them to broader anti-imperialist and social goals, resulting in conditional rather than absolute support.
    • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 Progressive positions but Ba'athist heritage brings ambivalence on internal pluralism.
    • model Qwen +5.0 Positions itself as defender of freedoms against authoritarianism; participates in pro-democracy coalitions.
    • model Kimi +6.0 Progressive left party advocating expansion of civil liberties and freedoms.
  • National Liberation Front DZ State & religion contested ↔ 12 pt +0.0
    • model Gemini -5.0 The FLN maintains Islam as the state religion and rejects secularism, using religious authority to legitimize the state.
    • model Gemma -5.0 Supports Islam as the state religion and a source of national identity.
    • model Kimi -5.0 Arab-Islamic state identity; rejects strict secularism.
    • model Qwen -3.0 Officially secular but recognizes Islam as state religion; resists clerical rule.
    • model GPT +0.0 It maintains a secular-nationalist state with Islam constitutionally embedded.
    • model Claude +0.0 Secular-nationalist heritage coexisting with Islam as constitutional state religion.
    • model Grok +2.0 Islam as state religion with state-appointed religious authorities and secular civil code dominating most law.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model DeepSeek +4.0 FLN defends secularism but with state control over mosques and Islamic reference.
    • model MiniMax +7.0 FLN codified Algeria as a secular republic and historically resisted Islamist insertion of religion into law.
  • Nour Party EG Regional stance contested ↔ 12 pt -0.5
    • model MiniMax -5.0 Firmly anti-normalization; pro-Palestinian resistance stance.
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Opposes normalization but anti-Iran; complex stance
    • model Gemma -3.0 Ideologically anti-normalization
    • model Kimi -2.0 Anti-normalization with Israel and pro-Palestinian, but not fully aligned with Iran-led resistance axis due to Sunni-Shia divide.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +1.0 It is anti-normalization in sentiment but anti-Iran and regime-aligned in practice.
    • model Claude +2.0 Leans stability camp pragmatically despite anti-normalization rhetoric.
    • model Gemini +5.0 It aligns pragmatically with the state's foreign policy and the Gulf-led stability camp, despite its rhetorical hostility to Israel.
    • model Grok +5.0 Pragmatic alignment with Sisi stability and anti-MB regional policy rather than resistance axis despite strong Palestinian rhetoric.
    • model Qwen +7.0 Aligned with the Saudi-UAE bloc against political Islam and regional instability.
  • National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR Regime stance contested ↔ 12 pt +2.0
    • model Kimi -6.0 Tewassoul is the main opposition party that fundamentally challenges the current political order and power structure.
    • model MiniMax -4.0 Tewassoul operates as an opposition party critical of the secular republican order and has had its members banned or detained
    • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model DeepSeek +1.0 Tewassoul works within the constitutional order despite opposition to some policies but seeks to reshape the state toward Islamization.
    • model GPT +1.0 It is a legal opposition party seeking reform rather than overthrow of Mauritania’s constitutional order.
    • model Gemma +3.0 Operates as legal opposition within the existing state framework.
    • model Gemini +3.0 Tewassoul accepts and operates within the legal framework of the Islamic Republic, seeking reform rather than overturning the system.
    • model Claude +4.0 Loyal opposition operating legally within the constitutional order.
    • model Qwen +6.0 Has frequently joined ruling coalitions and supported the incumbent government in exchange for political influence.
    • model Grok +6.0 Legal registered opposition that contests elections and accepts the multiparty Islamic Republic constitutional order rather than seeking its overthrow.
  • Free Egyptians Party EG Liberal democracy contested ↔ 12 pt +5.0
    • model Gemini -4.0 While officially endorsing democracy, its consistent alignment with executive overreach and regime entrenchment demonstrates a weak actual commitment.
    • model GPT -2.0 Its current posture is pro-establishment and weak on checks against executive power.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 Pro-democratic in rhetoric but pragmatically supports Sisi's strong executive; weak actual liberal-democratic push.
    • model Claude +3.0 Declares democratic values but aligns closely with the executive.
    • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Gemma +5.0 Supports a liberal democratic framework
    • model Kimi +6.0 Committed to liberal democratic order with independent courts and free press; part of Egyptian Bloc alliance.
    • model Grok +8.0 Commits to liberal democracy, rule of law, secular civil state, and institutional checks and balances.
    • model Qwen +8.0 Committed to liberal democratic institutions.
    • model DeepSeek +8.0 Firmly committed to liberal democratic checks
  • Progressive Socialist Party LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 12 pt -1.0
    • model Qwen -7.0 PSP supports Lebanon’s consociational system as it protects Druze political autonomy.
    • model Gemini -5.0 PSP officially supports a unified centralist state structure and opposes the federalization of Lebanon.
    • model Gemma -4.0 Generally favors a unitary state
    • model Grok -3.0 Generally supports unitary central state but pragmatic on local governance and decentralization for Druze mountain regions; not a strong federal advocate.
    • model Claude -1.0 Defends Druze power-sharing within a largely centralist state framework.
    • model MiniMax +0.0 PSP supports decentralization and administrative reform but stops short of full federalism
    • model Kimi +0.0 PSP has advocated for abolishing the confessional system but also operates within it; its position on federalism is ambiguous, supporting decentralization but not explicitly federalism, placing it near centrist.
    • model GPT +3.0 PSP accepts Lebanese power sharing and decentralization while rejecting partition.
    • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • Free Destourian Party TN Social contested ↔ 11 pt -1.0
    • model Qwen -6.0 Promotes conservative social values aligned with Bourguiba-era statism, not liberal individualism.
    • model MiniMax -5.0 Socially authoritarian-conservative; opposes loosening of moral/social restrictions even though secular.
    • model Gemini -5.0 The PDL emphasizes state authority and societal order over individual libertarian freedoms.
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 Socially conservative but less intensely so than Ennahda.
    • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Gemma +0.0 Torn between Bourguibist secularism and a traditionalist base.
    • model Claude +3.0 Secular Bourguibist modernism, relatively permissive on personal life versus Islamists.
    • model Grok +3.0 As a secular nationalist party PDL is more permissive on social issues than religious conservatives but stops short of full libertarian positions on gender and sexual minorities.
    • model Kimi +5.0 Secular and culturally modern, supporting liberal social values against Islamist conservatism.
  • Islamic Action Front JO Civil liberties contested ↔ 11 pt -0.5
    • model Grok -5.0 Platform emphasizes Islamic moral constraints on speech, expression, and association, favoring restriction over expansive liberal liberties.
    • model Gemma -4.0 While opposing state repression
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Pushes restrictions on speech and press when conflicting with religious or moral norms.
    • model Kimi -3.0 Supports some civil liberties but would restrict speech and association contradicting Islamic values
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +1.0 It calls for political freedoms and opposition rights, though its Islamist program implies limits on some moral liberties.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 Officially champions political freedoms and reform, but its Brotherhood affiliate has shown ambivalence toward press criticism and dissent on social/religious matters.
    • model Claude +3.0 As opposition it campaigns for expanded political space and association, though selectively.
    • model Gemini +4.0 Demands expansion of political freedoms and protest rights as the main opposition, despite conservative social views.
    • model Qwen +6.0 As the main opposition party, it consistently campaigns for expanded political freedoms and press rights.
  • People's Movement TN Social contested ↔ 11 pt +0.5
    • model Gemma -6.0 Favors traditional collective moral authority.
    • model Gemini -6.0 The party prioritizes state and collective authority over individual social libertarianism.
    • model GPT -3.0 Its nationalist-populist outlook is socially conservative compared with liberal secular currents.
    • model Qwen -2.0 Socially conservative but prioritizes economic and nationalist issues over moral policing.
    • model Claude +0.0 Secular nationalist but socially conservative-populist, roughly mixed.
    • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model DeepSeek +1.0 Socially moderate; not a defining axis.
    • model MiniMax +4.0 Socially progressive on personal freedoms
    • model Grok +4.0 As a secular leftist party it favors greater social liberalization than Islamists while remaining within the bounds of Arab progressive nationalism on issues like LGBTQ+ rights.
    • model Kimi +5.0 Progressive left party supporting social freedoms and libertarian values.
  • Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Regional stance contested ↔ 11 pt +0.5
    • model Gemini -6.0 HTS engages in armed struggle and rejects regional normalization with Israel, though it remains adversarial to the Iranian-led Axis.
    • model Gemma -6.0 Aligns with anti-normalization and armed struggle
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 Anti-normalization and anti-Iran
    • model MiniMax -3.0 HTS rhetorically embraces anti-normalization and Palestinian resistance framing but has pragmatically engaged with Western and Gulf states
    • model Qwen +0.0 Rejects the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance but does not align with the Gulf-led normalization camp focusing instead on local governance.
    • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +2.0 It is anti-Iran and seeks pragmatic stability, though not a clear normalization-camp actor.
    • model Kimi +4.0 HTS has actively pursued normalization with Turkey, the West, and Gulf states, seeking international legitimacy and economic reintegration rather than armed resistance politics.
    • model Grok +5.0 HTS opposed the Iran resistance axis in Syria and seeks pragmatic stability oriented relations with Turkey and Western actors.
    • model Claude +5.0 Outside the Resistance axis; pursues aims via Gulf, Turkey and Western engagement.
  • Socialist Union of Popular Forces MA Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 11 pt -4.0
    • model Qwen -8.0 Committed to a centralized state consistent with historic left-wing nationalism.
    • model Gemini -7.0 Strongly supports Morocco's unitary state structure and favors centralism over federal arrangements.
    • model Grok -7.0 Supports the unitary state but has historically favored greater citizen participation and some administrative decentralization within the central framework.
    • model Claude -5.0 Centralist, though the left is somewhat more open to regionalization.
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Centralist but historically more open to decentralization than regime parties.
    • model MiniMax -4.0 USFP accepts Morocco's unitary framework but has historically pushed for regional decentralization and democratic local governance, slightly less centralist than rivals.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT -1.0 USFP supports decentralization and pluralism but not a federal Moroccan state.
    • model Gemma +2.0 Historically more open to regional autonomy and decentralization than right-wing parties.
    • model Kimi +3.0 USFP supports advanced regionalization and local autonomy as part of democratic reform.
  • Sairoon Alliance IQ Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 11 pt +1.0
    • model Qwen -6.0 Fiercely Iraqi nationalist, prioritizing Iraqi sovereignty over any pan-Arab or transnational ideologies.
    • model Gemma -5.0 Primarily Iraqi nationalist with a focus on local sovereignty.
    • model Grok -2.0 While using some Arab solidarity rhetoric, Sairoon is primarily Iraqi Shia populist with strong particularist 'Iraqi first' framing rather than classic pan-Arabism.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Claude +0.0 Iraqi-nationalist with Arab and anti-normalization coloring but not a pan-Arab project.
    • model Kimi +2.0 Sadr is primarily Iraqi nationalist but uses pan-Arab and anti-imperialist rhetoric; not doctrinally pan-Arab
    • model DeepSeek +3.0 Sadr uses pan-Arab and nationalist rhetoric but core base is Iraqi Shi'a particularist.
    • model Gemini +4.0 Sadr frames his politics around an Arab nationalist identity to counter Iranian influence, strengthening ties with Arab states.
    • model GPT +4.0 It uses Iraqi Arab and anti-imperialist solidarity themes more than Kurdish or sectarian particularism.
    • model MiniMax +5.0 Sadr's movement is steeped in Iraqi Arab nationalism and pan-Arab sentiment, distinguishing it from Iranian-aligned Shia parties.
  • Ba'ath Party (Syria) SY Social contested ↔ 11 pt -0.5
    • model Qwen -8.0 Enforces traditional collective moral authority and restricts personal and social freedoms particularly regarding dissent and lifestyle.
    • model Gemma -6.0 Maintains a conservative social order and restricts personal liberties.
    • model Grok -4.0 Ba'ath maintained traditional moral authority on social issues and family despite secular orientation and limited personal libertarianism.
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 State is socially authoritarian in practice
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +1.0 Its secular nationalism is less clerical but still authoritarian toward individual expression.
    • model Gemini +2.0 Within its secular framework, the party permits certain individual lifestyle freedoms, though it completely rejects LGBTQ+ rights.
    • model Claude +2.0 Secular lifestyle norms but heavy collectivist state authority over expression.
    • model Kimi +3.0 The Ba'ath regime was secular and relatively permissive on personal lifestyle and social expression compared to Islamist alternatives, though still authoritarian.
    • model MiniMax +3.0 Ba'ath rule was socially secular and comparatively permissive on lifestyle compared to Islamists
  • Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE Regional stance contested ↔ 11 pt -1.0
    • model MiniMax -5.0 Islah opposes normalization, supports Palestinian armed struggle rhetorically, and aligns with the anti-normalization Islamist camp, though it works within the Saudi coalition rather than Iran's.
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Islah is hostile to Iran and Houthis but not part of normalization camp; closer to Turkey/Qatar.
    • model Qwen -4.0 As a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate, opposes Gulf-Israel normalization and supports anti-imperialist resistance.
    • model GPT -2.0 It is anti-normalization and pro-Palestinian but not aligned with Iran’s resistance bloc.
    • model Gemini -2.0 Islah is cross-pressured, ideologically aligned with anti-normalization politics but pragmatically tied to the Saudi-backed stability camp.
    • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Claude +1.0 In the anti-Houthi coalition but with resistance-sympathetic views on Israel.
    • model Kimi +4.0 Islah is part of the Saudi-led coalition and normalization camp, though it maintains anti-Israel rhetoric and some sympathy for Palestinian resistance.
    • model Grok +4.0 Islah opposes Iran-backed Houthis and has aligned with Saudi-led efforts, though with occasional Qatar/Turkey sympathies; it does not belong to the Axis of Resistance and leans pragmatic-stability.
    • model Gemma +6.0 They align with the Saudi-led coalition for regional stability.
  • Union of Forces of Progress MR Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 11 pt +2.0
    • model Gemini -6.0 As a multi-ethnic party representing both Arab-Berbers and Afro-Mauritanians, UFP rejects Arab-nationalist frames in favor of domestic pluralism.
    • model Grok -5.0 Civic multiracial Mauritanian nationalism and focus on internal ethnic social justice issues render the party more particularist than pan-Arab.
    • model Qwen -4.0 Focuses on national social justice and Mauritanian identity rather than pan-Arab ideological frameworks.
    • model Gemma -3.0 More focused on Mauritanian social justice and secularism than on pan-Arab identity.
    • model GPT +1.0 It shares some Arab-left solidarity themes but is mainly framed around Mauritanian democratic and social questions.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +4.0 The coalition draws on pan-Arab and leftist traditions while also addressing specific Mauritanian social issues.
    • model DeepSeek +5.0 UFP has roots in Arab nationalism and pan-Arab solidarity though today it is more focused on Mauritanian domestic politics.
    • model MiniMax +5.0 Rooted in pan-Arab leftist and Nasserite traditions
    • model Claude +5.0 Descends from the Arab-nationalist and Nasserist left with pan-Arab framing.
  • Free Egyptians Party EG Civil liberties contested ↔ 11 pt +4.5
    • model GPT -3.0 Despite liberal branding, its pro-regime turn has muted its defense of dissent and protest rights.
    • model Gemini -3.0 Despite its liberal platform, the party has consistently supported the regime's restrictive security policies and civil liberty constraints.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 Liberal platform on paper but party has not actively pushed for civil-liberties expansion and has supported restrictions under Sisi.
    • model Claude +4.0 Liberal rhetoric on rights but a loyalist parliamentary record tempers it.
    • model Gemma +4.0 Generally supports liberal civil liberties
    • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +7.0 Liberal platform explicitly committed to expanding and protecting civil liberties and human rights.
    • model Qwen +8.0 Libertarian-leaning on personal and political freedoms.
    • model DeepSeek +8.0 Strong liberal platform; champions free speech and press as core identity.
    • model Grok +8.0 Liberal platform founded on expanding civil liberties, equality, and freedoms for all citizens regardless of religion or background.
  • Kataeb Party LB Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 11 pt +2.5
    • model Grok -5.0 Favors strong unitary central state with effective national army; historically skeptical of federal proposals that could fragment Lebanon along sectarian lines.
    • model Qwen -5.0 Kataeb supports a strong centralized Lebanese state but within the existing confessional framework.
    • model MiniMax -4.0 Kataeb advocates a strong Lebanese central state with no federalism
    • model Gemma -3.0 Generally favors a unitary state
    • model DeepSeek +2.0 Supports a unified Lebanon but open to administrative decentralization.
    • model Claude +3.0 Sovereigntist Christian party where leaders favor expanded decentralization.
    • model GPT +4.0 Kataeb favors strong decentralization to protect plural communities.
    • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +5.0 Kataeb under Sami Gemayel has explicitly supported federalism as a solution for Christian security; Gemayel stated federalism would be a guarantee for Christians if sectarianism were abolished.
    • model Gemini +6.0 Kataeb advocates for federalism or broad decentralization to protect communal pluralism and autonomy.
  • Hamas PS Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 10 pt -1.0
    • model Gemini -5.0 Rooted in the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood tradition, prioritizing Palestinian national liberation over pan-Arab political frameworks.
    • model Grok -5.0 Hamas frames its ideology primarily through Palestinian Islamism and resistance rather than secular pan-Arab nationalism.
    • model Kimi -4.0 Hamas is rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood, which has pan-Islamist rather than pan-Arab orientation; it prioritizes Palestinian and Islamist causes over broader Arab nationalism.
    • model MiniMax -3.0 Hamas frames its politics in Islamist and Palestinian-national terms
    • model DeepSeek -2.0 Hamas frames itself as Islamist and Palestinian, not pan-Arab, though it uses anti-normalization rhetoric.
    • model Qwen +0.0 Transcends pan-Arabism in favor of pan-Islamism, but aligns with Arab resistance movements.
    • model Claude +3.0 Muslim Brotherhood offshoot framing solidarity in pan-Islamic/umma terms more than nation-first.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Gemma +3.0 Frames struggle within a wider Islamist/Arab context
    • model GPT +5.0 It frames Palestine within Arab and Islamic anti-normalization solidarity, though its project is mainly Palestinian-Islamist.
  • Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 10 pt -1.0
    • model Grok -5.0 Islah has generally favored a strong central Islamic state while supporting limited administrative decentralization, but opposes federalism that would empower southern separatists or dilute national unity.
    • model Qwen -4.0 Opposes southern secession and favors a centralized state, albeit with Islamic governance.
    • model Kimi -4.0 Islah historically favored a strong unitary state with Islamist governance, though has pragmatically accepted federalist proposals post-2011.
    • model MiniMax -3.0 Islah historically opposed southern separatism and favored a strong central state, though it participated in the 2014 federal-region dialogue; net is mildly centralist.
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 Islah generally supports a unitary state with decentralized governance but opposes secession.
    • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Claude +3.0 Backed the GCC transition and federal plan, accepting moderate decentralization.
    • model Gemini +3.0 Historically centralist, Islah accepted the six-region federal model during the National Dialogue Conference as a pragmatic compromise.
    • model Gemma +5.0 They often support federalism as a means of power-sharing and regional protection.
    • model GPT +5.0 It has supported negotiated federal arrangements within a unified Yemen.
  • Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 10 pt -0.5
    • model Grok -6.0 Frames politics around Bahraini national interests, Sunni community, and gradual Islamic reform within the monarchy rather than transnational pan-Arab solidarity or Nasserist frameworks.
    • model Gemini -4.0 Prioritizes community-specific Sunni sectarian and monarchic loyalist frames over secular pan-Arab solidarity.
    • model Qwen -2.0 It focuses primarily on Bahraini Sunni interests rather than broader pan-Arab solidarity.
    • model DeepSeek -2.0 Primarily Islamist and Bahraini-focused but shares some pan-Islamic solidarity with Arab causes.
    • model MiniMax -1.0 Frames politics primarily through Gulf monarchic and Islamic identity rather than pan-Arab solidarity.
    • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +3.0 Its Arab-Islamist rhetoric includes Arab solidarity, though Bahraini Sunni communal politics remain central.
    • model Claude +4.0 Frames solidarity in pan-Islamic/Arab terms and opposes normalization, though loyalist within a particularist Bahraini monarchy.
    • model Kimi +4.0 Muslim Brotherhood has pan-Arab Islamist solidarity orientation across MENA region.
    • model Gemma +4.0 Emphasizes Arab-Islamic solidarity over strict Bahraini particularism.
  • Fatah PS West alignment contested ↔ 10 pt +5.5
    • model Claude -1.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds PA relies on Western aid, diplomacy, and security coordination.
    • re-coder Re-coder C +0.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the west-alignment axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
    • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • re-coder Re-coder B +1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the west-alignment axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
    • model DeepSeek +2.0 Fatah has strategically aligned with US and EU through PA security cooperation and diplomacy.
    • model GPT +5.0 The PA under Fatah relies on Western diplomacy, aid, and security coordination.
    • model Kimi +6.0 Fatah/PA is strongly aligned with the West, receiving US and EU financial and security support, engaging in security coordination with Israel (a US ally), and depending on Western diplomatic backing.
    • model Gemma +7.0 Strategically aligned with the US and EU to achieve diplomatic goals and maintain security coordination.
    • model Gemini +7.0 Maintains strong strategic, security, and financial reliance on Western blocs like the United States and European Union.
    • model MiniMax +7.0 Fatah/PA is closely aligned with the US and EU through donor dependency
    • model Grok +8.0 Fatah/PA maintains deep strategic ties with Western powers through diplomacy, security coordination, and substantial financial aid dependence.
    • model Qwen +9.0 Relies heavily on US and EU diplomatic, financial, and security backing.
  • National Wisdom Movement IQ Regional stance contested ↔ 10 pt -2.0
    • model Gemini -5.0 The party leans toward the resistance axis due to its anti-normalization stance and alignment with pro-Iran factions.
    • model DeepSeek -5.0 Leans toward Axis of Resistance but less militant than harder-line Shi'a factions.
    • model Claude -3.0 Broadly within the Iran-aligned camp though Hakim has engaged the Gulf and moderated.
    • model MiniMax -3.0 Hikma leans toward the anti-normalization resistance camp in rhetoric and rejects Israel, but has been less militant in practice than Sadr or militias — moderately anti-normalization.
    • model GPT -2.0 It is anti-normalization and sympathetic to resistance themes while favoring diplomatic balance.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +2.0 Hakim seeks balance between regional camps; pragmatic engagement with both resistance and normalization actors
    • model Gemma +3.0 Prefers diplomatic stability and negotiation over armed resistance.
    • model Qwen +4.0 Advocates for Iraq's integration into the Arab Sunni fold and regional stability, distancing from maximalist resistance.
    • model Grok +5.0 Hikma leans toward pragmatic stability and has distanced from maximalist resistance politics, favoring negotiated regional relations over armed Axis alignment.
  • Union of Forces of Progress MR Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 10 pt -2.5
    • model Grok -7.0 UFP promotes national cohesion and multiracial inclusion inside Mauritania's existing unitary centralized republican framework without federalist proposals.
    • model DeepSeek -6.0 UFP is a left-wing republican party that supports a unitary state without a federalist agenda.
    • model Claude -4.0 Centralist within the unitary state, though attentive to regional and communal grievances.
    • model GPT -3.0 The party emphasizes national democratic reform more than federal or communal power-sharing.
    • model MiniMax -3.0 The UFP has not championed federalism and operates within the centralist republican framework
    • model Qwen -2.0 Supports a unitary state but advocates for decentralization and the protection of minority rights.
    • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +1.0 Union of Forces of Progress operates within unitary framework with limited emphasis on structural decentralization.
    • model Gemini +2.0 UFP favors a unitary state but strongly advocates for power-sharing, minority rights, and addressing ethnic grievances.
    • model Gemma +3.0 More open to decentralization and regional equity than the state-aligned parties.
  • Lebanese Forces LB Social contested ↔ 10 pt -1.0
    • model MiniMax -5.0 LF holds socially conservative Christian positions opposing LGBTQ+ rights and liberalizing social reforms.
    • model Kimi -5.0 LF is a socially conservative Christian party with traditional moral values; it opposes progressive social freedoms and supports traditional collective moral authority, though less rigidly than Islamist parties.
    • model Gemma -5.0 Generally conservative and traditionalist on social issues.
    • model GPT -4.0 Its social base and leadership are conservative on moral questions.
    • model Qwen -3.0 LF holds socially conservative Christian views but avoids extreme moral enforcement.
    • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • re-coder Re-coder B -1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
    • re-coder Re-coder C +0.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
    • model Claude +1.0 Moderate Christian party, comparatively permissive socially.
    • model Gemini +3.0 Lebanese Forces support a relatively permissive social lifestyle while respecting traditional communal values.
    • model Grok +5.0 Secular nationalist tradition supports broader individual social and lifestyle freedoms than religious parties; relatively permissive on personal expression.
  • National Charter Party JO Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 9 pt -2.0
    • model Grok -6.0 Prioritizes Jordanian particularism, national identity, and monarchical sovereignty over pan-Arab ideological solidarity.
    • model Qwen -6.0 Prioritizes Jordanian national interests and Hashemite particularism over pan-Arab ideologies.
    • model Gemini -6.0 Focuses primarily on Jordanian nationalist particularism and state stability over pan-Arab political frameworks.
    • model Gemma -4.0 Leans toward Jordanian particularism and state stability.
    • model Claude -3.0 Jordan-first monarchic particularism over pan-Arab framing.
    • model DeepSeek -1.0 Primarily Jordanian nationalist
    • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +1.0 More particularist Jordanian nationalist, less pan-Arab framing than opposition parties
    • model GPT +2.0 It uses Arab solidarity language but remains primarily Jordanian state-first.
    • model MiniMax +3.0 Moderate pan-Arab framing; more Jordanian-state-oriented than ideological pan-Arabist.
  • Yemeni Socialist Party YE Regime stance contested ↔ 9 pt +1.0
    • model Grok -4.0 The YSP historically opposed or was ambivalent toward 1990 unification that ended the PDRY and continues to challenge aspects of the current unitary order in favor of southern rights or federal restructuring.
    • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model DeepSeek -3.0 YSP opposes current Hadi/Houthi chaos but seeks a new republic not the old order.
    • model MiniMax -3.0 YSP is part of the anti-Houthi coalition/PLC framework but seeks significant constitutional reform, putting it mildly anti-regime in current practice.
    • model Qwen +0.0 Marginalized and fractured; opposes both the Houthis and the Saleh-era GPC dominance.
    • model GPT +2.0 It participates in republican politics while remaining critical of the post-unity order.
    • model Kimi +2.0 YSP supports the constitutional order in principle but has been marginalized by northern-dominated governments and challenges current power structures.
    • model Claude +2.0 Works within the constitutional system though ambivalent over southern grievances.
    • model Gemma +4.0 They generally support the legal framework of the state while advocating for reform.
    • model Gemini +5.0 The YSP supports the constitutional republic over rebel alternatives, though it demands deep democratic and federal restructuring of the state.
  • Mubadara PS Regional stance contested ↔ 9 pt -0.5
    • model Gemini -4.0 Firmly opposes regional normalization with Israel prior to statehood, while favoring international civil society solidarity.
    • model Qwen -4.0 Supports anti-normalization and resistance but is secular and democratic, not aligned with theocratic axes.
    • model Claude -4.0 Anti-normalization and supportive of BDS, but pursues resistance through nonviolent/civil means.
    • model GPT -2.0 It supports anti-occupation and anti-normalization activism but not Axis-style regional militancy.
    • model MiniMax -1.0 Mubadara is non-aligned — it supports a negotiated two-state outcome and rejects both armed resistance and normalization.
    • model DeepSeek +0.0 Mubadara rejects normalization but also not aligned with Axis; favors non-aligned Palestinian-centered approach.
    • model Kimi +0.0 Mubadara supports popular resistance and BDS, criticizes normalization, but also engages in diplomatic and civil society efforts; it does not fit neatly into either the armed resistance or normalization camps.
    • model Grok +2.0 Mubadara supports popular resistance and international law approaches while critiquing strategies that escalate conflict without clear political horizon.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Gemma +5.0 Favors diplomatic and negotiated settlements over the Axis of Resistance model.
  • Mostaqbal Watan EG Pan-Arab vs particularist contested ↔ 9 pt -3.5
    • model Qwen -7.0 Egyptian nationalist, prioritizing the current regime's interests over pan-Arabism.
    • model DeepSeek -6.0 Strongly Egyptian particularist; downplays pan-Arabism.
    • model Grok -6.0 Strong Egyptian nationalist and regime-loyal framing prioritizes national interest and stability over pan-Arab solidarity projects.
    • model Gemma -4.0 Prioritizes Egyptian national interest and state stability over pan-Arabism.
    • model Claude -4.0 Egypt-first state-corporatist nationalism over pan-Arabism.
    • model Gemini -3.0 It prioritizes an 'Egypt First' nationalist agenda while maintaining standard diplomatic solidarity with Arab nations.
    • model GPT +1.0 It uses some Arab solidarity rhetoric but is mainly Egypt-first and regime-centered.
    • model MiniMax +1.0 Rhetorical pan-Arabism but Egypt-first; not central to platform.
    • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +2.0 Primarily particularist and nation-state first; limited pan-Arab rhetoric beyond standard regime discourse.
  • Free Destourian Party TN Economic contested ↔ 9 pt +1.0
    • model Grok -4.0 The party inherits the Destourian tradition of state-led development and protectionism with limited enthusiasm for pure market liberalization.
    • model Gemini -3.0 The PDL supports a significant role for the state in the economy, consistent with Bourguibist state capitalism.
    • model DeepSeek -2.0 PDP leans statist on some issues but not extremely; mild state interventionist.
    • model Qwen -1.0 Mixed stance: supports some state role but not fully statist; lacks clear economic platform.
    • model Claude +1.0 Bourguibist state-developmentalism mixed with acceptance of markets, roughly centrist.
    • model Gemma +3.0 Favors a mixed economy with strong state-led developmentalism.
    • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model MiniMax +4.0 Free-market orientation with nationalist flavor; pro-private-sector but with state-protectionist rhetoric.
    • model Kimi +5.0 Bourguibist welfare state with moderate market orientation.
  • PFLP PS Liberal democracy contested ↔ 9 pt +0.0
    • model Gemma -6.0 Prioritizes revolutionary struggle over liberal-democratic constraints.
    • model MiniMax -3.0 PFLP supports democratic rights rhetorically but as a vanguard Marxist-Leninist party is not committed to liberal pluralism.
    • model Claude -3.0 Participates in elections but is a Leninist vanguard, not committed to liberal checks.
    • model Qwen -2.0 Vanguardist Marxist-Leninist structure is inherently skeptical of liberal democratic checks.
    • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Kimi +0.0 PFLP advocates for a people's democracy in Marxist-Leninist terms, which is distinct from liberal democracy; it supports political participation but within a socialist framework that limits liberal democratic checks.
    • model Grok +1.0 PFLP supports revolutionary popular democracy and national institutions but shows weak commitment to liberal checks, opposition pluralism, or judicial independence.
    • model GPT +3.0 It endorses popular democracy and pluralism, but revolutionary vanguard politics limit liberal-democratic commitment.
    • model Gemini +3.0 Advocates for pluralistic democracy and elections within the Palestinian national movement, despite its Marxist vanguard theory.
  • Kataeb Party LB Social contested ↔ 9 pt -1.5
    • model Gemma -5.0 Generally conservative and aligned with traditional social authority.
    • model MiniMax -5.0 Kataeb holds socially conservative Christian views opposing LGBTQ+ rights and defending traditional family structures.
    • model Kimi -4.0 Kataeb is a conservative Christian party with traditional moral values; while it supports individual freedoms in some areas, it remains socially conservative on LGBTQ+ and traditional family values.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Qwen -2.0 Kataeb holds moderate Christian-conservative social views but avoids extreme moral policing.
    • model GPT -1.0 It is moderately conservative with some liberal urban currents.
    • model Claude +1.0 Moderate Christian party, comparatively permissive socially.
    • model DeepSeek +3.0 Socially moderate by Lebanese standards; supports civil marriage but cautious on LGBTQ+.
    • model Gemini +3.0 Kataeb supports a relatively permissive social environment rooted in its secularized Christian base.
    • model Grok +4.0 Secular nationalist roots permit greater tolerance for individual lifestyle choices and social freedoms than religious or traditionalist parties.
  • Mubadara PS West alignment contested ↔ 8 pt -0.5
    • model Gemini -4.0 Rejects strategic alignment with Western governments due to their bias toward Israel, but heavily engages Western civil society.
    • model Qwen -4.0 Critical of US bias toward Israel and maintains a non-aligned, independent posture.
    • model Kimi -2.0 Mubadara is critical of US-sponsored Oslo process and Western bias toward Israel, supports BDS, but also engages with Western civil society and academic institutions; it is not aligned with Western strategic interests.
    • model DeepSeek -2.0 Mubadara is critical of US policy on Palestine but not overtly anti-Western; seeks European engagement.
    • model Claude -1.0 Critical of US policy but internationally engaged; broadly nonaligned.
    • model GPT +0.0 It engages Western civil society and diplomacy while opposing US-backed occupation policy.
    • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Grok +4.0 Mubadara engages pragmatically with Western and international actors to garner support for Palestinian human rights and statehood goals.
    • model MiniMax +4.0 Mubadara engages Western governments and donors as part of its democratic and state-building agenda.
    • model Gemma +4.0 Favors diplomatic partnerships with the West to support Palestinian rights.
  • Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH Centralism vs federalism contested ↔ 8 pt +1.0
    • model MiniMax -4.0 Platform emphasized national unity under a reformed central state rather than federal or consociational structures.
    • model Qwen -4.0 It advocates for a unitary Bahraini state rather than a federal or sectarian division of power.
    • model Grok -3.0 Advocates major democratic reforms for fairer representation and power distribution reflecting Bahrain's demographics but operates within and does not explicitly call for a federal or consociational restructuring of the unitary state.
    • model Claude -2.0 Sought democratic reform within a unitary state rather than any federal or regional power-sharing model.
    • model DeepSeek +0.0 Al-Wefaq does not explicitly demand federalism but advocates for democratic reforms that could imply local power-sharing.
    • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model GPT +2.0 Al-Wefaq sought power-sharing and elected government within Bahrain, though not a full federal restructuring.
    • model Kimi +3.0 Shi'a opposition has sought greater power-sharing and fairer representation in Bahrain.
    • model Gemini +4.0 Advocates for consociational power-sharing and constitutional reforms to empower the Shia majority within the state structure.
    • model Gemma +4.0 Historically pushed for more inclusive power-sharing and representation for the Shia majority.
  • National Unity IL Palestinian question contested ↔ 7 pt -1.5
    • model GPT -5.0 National Unity is hawkish and opposes broad Palestinian sovereignty under current conditions.
    • model DeepSeek -4.0 Generally hawkish but open to two-state solution.
    • model Qwen -4.0 Opposed to full Palestinian statehood but supports moderate autonomy.
    • model Gemini -2.0 Skeptical of full Palestinian statehood due to security concerns, preferring separation and autonomy.
    • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
    • model Claude -1.0 Security-centrist conflict-management posture, vague on statehood.
    • model Grok +2.0 Supports two-state in principle with robust security guarantees.
    • model Gemma +2.0 Moderate support for a two-state framework.
    • model Kimi +2.0 Supports two-state solution in principle but prioritizes security; skeptical of Palestinian partner.
    • model MiniMax +2.0 National Unity supports a negotiated Palestinian state in principle but is skeptical and emphasizes security.

    before · r1 gemini -3.0grok +4.0 no definitions — excluded from the median