transparency · the panel in full

Rater panel

Every published position is the median of a rater panel (see methodology §5). This page shows the panel with nothing hidden: for each cell where two or more raters scored, where each rater landed on the −10…+10 scale, the synthesised median, and the reasoning behind each score. Contested cells — where raters diverge sharply — are surfaced first.

Showing the 120 least-settled of 803 cells. Pick a country to see every one. Single-rater cells (priors awaiting a second rater) are left out; they carry one score and appear on each entity's own page.

published median r2 panel rater r1 "before" (no definitions, excluded) priormodelre-coder

• Long Live Tunisia TN Civil liberties settled ↔ 15 pt +3.5
  • model Qwen -8.0 Actively represses dissent, protests, and opposition under Saied’s rule.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Tends to support some restrictions in name of stability
  • model Gemini +2.0 While in power under Youssef Chahed, the party largely maintained civil liberties despite using emergency powers.
  • model Claude +3.0 Centrist party of the transition, broadly supportive of civil liberties.
  • model GPT +3.0 As a centrist governing party it accepted pluralism but did not champion deep civil-liberties reform.
  • model Kimi +4.0 As governing party maintained civil liberties framework, though with some security restrictions.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +5.0 During its time in government Tahya Tounes advanced anti-corruption measures and institutional transparency while maintaining the expanded civil liberties framework inherited from the transition period.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Liberal civil-liberties platform typical of secular centrist parties.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strong advocate for the expansion and protection of civil liberties.
• Free Egyptians Party EG Regime stance settled ↔ 13 pt +6.5
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Opposes authoritarian excesses of current regime but accepts constitutional order.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Historically opposition party but has participated in parliament under Sisi; somewhat ambiguous current stance.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Opposed the Muslim Brotherhood regime but has a complicated relationship with the current military-backed government.
  • model Grok +5.0 Has participated in regime-tolerant parliamentary blocs and accepts foundational republican order while advocating liberal reforms.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +7.0 It broadly accepts and supports the post-2013 constitutional order.
  • model Claude +8.0 Strongly pro-regime loyalist supporting the constitutional order.
  • model MiniMax +8.0 Strongly pro-Sisi and pro-regime; party was a key Sisi supporter after 2013.
  • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly supportive of the existing constitutional and political order.
  • model Gemini +9.0 The party is an ardent supporter of the current political order and the post-2013 foundational regime.
• Northern Islamic Movement IL Liberal democracy settled ↔ 12 pt -4.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Rejects secular liberal democracy in favor of governance based on Islamic religious principles.
  • model Claude -6.0 Rejects Knesset participation and embraces an illiberal religious frame.
  • model Grok -5.0 Low commitment to secular liberal democracy; prioritizes Islamic governance framework.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Prefers Islamic governance over liberal democracy.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Movement seeks an Islamic-order state and rejects core liberal-democratic norms like religious pluralism and minority rights.
  • model GPT -4.0 It rejects the Zionist order and prioritizes Islamist communal authority over liberal-democratic checks.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Banned organization; Islamist principles may conflict with liberal democratic norms.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Operates within democracy but seeks an Islamic influence.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Participates in civic life but rejects the state's foundational order.

  before · r1 gemini -4.0grok +2.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL Regime stance settled ↔ 11 pt -2.0
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Ra'am rejects the Zionist character of the state but has pragmatically entered coalition governments; net anti-regime on foundational order.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Operates in the state but does not fully accept the Zionist foundation.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Participates in Israeli politics and joined government, but Islamist ideology has tensions with Zionist state.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Pragmatically operates within the state framework while ideologically opposing its exclusive Zionist definition.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -2.0 Does not embrace Zionism but pragmatically operates within and joined the state's coalition.
  • model GPT -1.0 Ra’am does not embrace Zionism but pragmatically works within Israel’s constitutional order.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Ambivalent; cooperates within system but rejects Zionism.
  • model Grok +3.0 Participates in coalitions and state institutions; accepts order while seeking reforms.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Pragmatic acceptance of the state, evidenced by joining a Zionist coalition.

  before · r1 gemini -2.0grok +2.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Amal Movement LB State & religion settled ↔ 11 pt -3.0
  • model Qwen -7.0 Amal supports integrating Shia religious norms into public life and opposes full secularization of state institutions.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Supports the role of religious authority in state and personal status law.
  • model Grok -5.0 Upholds Ja'fari religious courts and sectarian personal status laws; does not push for full separation of religion from state authority.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Amal accepts Lebanon's confessional system where religious authorities have significant role in personal status law; it does not advocate for secular separation of religion and state.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Amal's Shia religious identity informs politics but it pragmatically operates within Lebanon's pluralistic confessional system rather than seeking religious rule.
  • model GPT -3.0 It accepts a Lebanese state framework while giving Shiite religious authority political weight.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Prefers some role for religious authority in personal status law but not a full religious state.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -0.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Shia-communal but comparatively secular, accepting Lebanon's mixed confessional-civil framework.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Amal's declared platform supports a civil state and the separation of religion from political life.
• Long Live Tunisia TN Economic settled ↔ 11 pt +5.5
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Leans statist with preference for state-led development.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Interventionist economic stance with limited reforms; prioritizes state control amid crisis.
  • model GPT +4.0 It leans technocratic and pro-business compared with statist left and Arab-nationalist parties.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +5.0 Pro-market liberal reformism associated with Chahed's economic agenda.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Liberal pro-market orientation; Chahed implemented IMF economic reforms.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The party advocates for market liberal economic policies, privatization, and structural reforms.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Promotes market-oriented economic policies and neoliberal reforms.
  • model Grok +7.0 Tahya Tounes advocated market-friendly policies, business environment improvements, and economic liberalization to address Tunisia's structural challenges.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Strongly pro-market and pro-business; explicitly neoliberal economic program.
• Long Live Tunisia TN West alignment settled ↔ 11 pt +5.0
  • model Qwen -3.0 Increasingly distant from West, criticizing foreign interference and asserting autonomy.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Critical of Western foreign policy
  • model GPT +5.0 It is strategically friendly to Europe and Western-backed economic cooperation.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Liberal internationalist orientation favoring Western partnership and integration.
  • model Claude +5.0 Strategically pro-Western and reform-partnership oriented.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Strongly pro-Western and pro-EU; sought closer strategic partnership.
  • model Grok +7.0 Actively pursued closer European integration, investment, and security cooperation as part of its reform agenda.
  • model Gemini +7.0 The party is highly pro-Western, actively seeking strong strategic and financial ties with the US and EU.
  • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly aligned with Western strategic and economic interests.
• State of Law Coalition IQ Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 11 pt -6.5
  • model Grok -8.0 State of Law under Maliki pursued aggressive centralization policies, clashed with Kurdish federalism, and sought to strengthen Baghdad's unitary control over regions.
  • model Qwen -8.0 Fiercely opposes Kurdish federalism and advocates for a highly centralized Iraqi state under Baghdad's control.
  • model Gemini -8.0 Nouri al-Maliki has consistently championed a highly centralized state in Baghdad and strongly opposed Kurdish regional autonomy.
  • model Gemma -8.0 Historically favors a strong central government and restricts regional autonomy.
  • model Claude -7.0 Maliki centralized power in Baghdad and resisted Kurdish and Sunni federal demands.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Maliki is strongly centralist; as PM he opposed Kurdish autonomy and sought to concentrate power in Baghdad
  • model GPT -6.0 Maliki’s bloc favors a strong central state and has resisted expansive Kurdish or regional autonomy.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 State of Law under Maliki pursued a notably centralist agenda, clashing with Kurdish and Sunni federalist demands during his premiership.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Accepts federalism but under a strong central government led by a powerful prime minister.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Liberation Front DZ Regional stance settled ↔ 11 pt -3.5
  • model Gemini -8.0 The FLN vehemently opposes regional normalization with Israel and aligns with the anti-normalization camp.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 FLN opposes normalization with Israel and supports resistance diplomatically
  • model GPT -5.0 It supports Algeria's anti-normalization and anti-colonial regional line through state diplomacy.
  • model Grok -5.0 Maintains hardline anti-normalization and vocal pro-Palestinian 'resistance' rhetoric without direct military entanglement.
  • model Claude -4.0 Firmly anti-normalization and non-aligned, pursued through diplomacy.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Opposes normalization but operates via state diplomacy rather than purely via the
  • model MiniMax -3.0 FLN-led Algeria refuses normalization with Israel and supports the Palestinian cause but does not formally join the Iran-led resistance axis.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Anti-normalization rhetoric; though pragmatic on stability.
  • model Qwen +1.0 Officially neutral; supports two-state solution but rejects normalization with Israel.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 11 pt +4.0
  • model Grok -5.0 Prioritizes Sudanese nationalism and particularist identity over pan-Arab ideological solidarity.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Frames politics around Sudanese particularism and close alignment with Egypt rather than broad pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 DUP carries some pan-Arab and pan-Islamic framing but is fundamentally a Khatmiyya community-based particularist party.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Moderate pan-Arab orientation rooted in traditional nationalist history.
  • model Claude +4.0 Historic unionist orientation toward Egypt and the Nile Valley gives it an Arab-nationalist tilt alongside its sectarian particularism.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Balances Sudanese national identity with a general sense of Arab solidarity.
  • model GPT +4.0 Its unionist tradition and historic Egypt-oriented Arab politics give it a clear pan-Arab coloration.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The DUP's foundational identity is rooted in unionism with Egypt and broader pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Roots in pro-Egyptian unity and Nasserist tradition, historically pan-Arab oriented.
• Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG Economic settled ↔ 10 pt -2.5
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -4.0 Its social-democratic program favors welfare, redistribution, and a larger regulatory role for the state.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Advocates for social democratic policies including state-led social protections.
  • model Claude -3.0 Social-democratic mix accepting markets but stressing redistribution and welfare.
  • model Grok -3.0 Social democratic program supports regulated market economy with substantial state role in welfare, redistribution, and social justice.
  • model Gemini -2.0 It advocates for a mixed economy with strong state welfare programs alongside market mechanisms.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Social democratic platform favors mixed economy with social safety nets, not pure market liberalism.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Social-democratic: market-friendly but with strong state role in welfare and regulation.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Social-democratic platform favoring regulated market economy with strong social safety nets.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Favors market mechanisms and private sector growth.
• Jordanian Communist Party JO Liberal democracy settled ↔ 10 pt +4.0
  • model Grok -4.0 Supports formal democratic processes but prioritizes socialist 'people's democracy' over liberal institutions protecting bourgeois property and individual rights.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Supports democratic forms but historically subordinated to class struggle and vanguardism
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Formally supports democratic rights but influenced by Marxist-Leninist tradition of vanguardism.
  • model Claude +3.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Entrenching democracy, freedom of expression and organisation, political pluralism, separation of powers.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Demands democratic governance and limitation of monarchical power, favoring popular sovereignty.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +5.0 It supports pluralism and opposition rights today, despite a Leninist ideological heritage that tempers confidence.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Historically supportive of pluralism, civil liberties, and constitutionalism; though leftist tradition has had democratic and undemocratic currents, JCP has aligned with liberal-democratic norms.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Supports multi-party democracy and civil rights, operating as a legal opposition within the current system.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports liberal-democratic checks and balances to limit authoritarian rule.
• Long Live Tunisia TN Regional stance settled ↔ 10 pt +3.5
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Sympathetic to resistance rhetoric but not fully aligned with Iran-led axis.
  • model Qwen -1.0 Anti-normalization but not part of resistance axis; pursues independent foreign policy.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is anti-normalization in the Tunisian mainstream but strategically closer to stability and Western partnership than resistance politics.
  • model Claude +3.0 Leans toward the stability and negotiated-settlement camp.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Moderate regional posture; less anti-normalization rhetoric than leftist or Islamist rivals.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Pragmatic stability-oriented posture favoring negotiated regional solutions.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Tahya Tounes supports regional stability, moderate diplomacy, and standard international alignments.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Favors stability
  • model Grok +7.0 Favors stability-oriented diplomacy, economic integration with Europe and pragmatic Gulf ties, and avoidance of regional ideological conflicts or resistance entanglements.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ Economic settled ↔ 10 pt -2.5
  • model Gemini -6.0 The alliance promotes a populist, statist economic model centered on state distribution and patronage networks.
  • model Grok -5.0 Sairoon promotes populist economic policies with strong state intervention, anti-corruption rhetoric, and opposition to neoliberal reforms in Iraq's rentier economy.
  • model GPT -4.0 Its populism favors redistribution, state employment, and protection of poorer constituencies.
  • model Claude -4.0 Populist, pro-poor redistribution, reinforced by its alliance with the Communists.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Sadr's economic platform is populist and favors state welfare, subsidies, and services for the poor — generally statist.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Populist economic approach with a preference for state support for the poor.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Populist platform emphasizes state-provided services, subsidies, and anti-corruption redistribution of wealth.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Sadr champions anti-corruption and economic reform for poor, but lacks coherent economic program; populist rather than market-oriented
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Sairoon supports anti-corruption and economic reform
• Kurdistan Democratic Party IQ Regime stance settled ↔ 10 pt +5.5
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Participates in Iraq's federal system but seeks maximum autonomy and has challenged Baghdad's authority.
  • model Claude +2.0 Operates within the federal Iraqi constitution it helped write, though with separatist leanings.
  • model Kimi +2.0 KDP accepts Iraq's constitutional order but pushes its boundaries; seeks to maximize Kurdish autonomy within the system
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +5.0 It accepts Iraq’s post-2003 constitutional order because it protects Kurdish federal autonomy.
  • model Qwen +6.0 A founding pillar of the post-2003 Iraqi political order and federal system.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Supports the current constitutional federal structure of Iraq.
  • model Gemini +7.0 The KDP is a foundational pillar and key beneficiary of the post-2003 constitutional order in Iraq.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 KDP accepts Iraq's federal constitutional order, cooperates with the federal government, and seeks to operate within the existing state framework.
  • model Grok +8.0 KDP helped design and actively participates in and defends Iraq's post-2003 federal constitutional order as a foundational partner in the system.
• Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE West alignment settled ↔ 10 pt +2.0
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Islah is anti-Western in rhetoric but has cooperated with US counterterrorism tactically.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Ambivalent; maintains anti-Western Islamist rhetoric while pragmatically cooperating with the US against Houthis.
  • model GPT +1.0 It has pragmatic ties through the anti-Houthi coalition but no deep pro-West ideology.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Islah rhetorically critiques the West but is now part of the Saudi-led coalition that enjoys Western diplomatic and intelligence support, giving it a mildly pro-Western strategic posture.
  • model Claude +2.0 Pragmatically tolerates Western/Saudi backing while ideologically wary of the West.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Despite an anti-Western Islamist undercurrent, Islah pragmatically supports strategic cooperation with the West via its alliance with the Saudi-backed government.
  • model Grok +3.0 Islah has pragmatic strategic relations with Western-backed anti-Houthi coalitions and Gulf partners, though it remains ideologically critical of Western cultural influence.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Islah is aligned with Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognized government, cooperating with Western-backed coalition efforts.
  • model Gemma +7.0 They are strategically aligned with Western interests
• Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 10 pt -6.0
  • model DeepSeek -8.0 Al-Menbar supports a strong unitary Islamic state and opposes federal or sectarian power-sharing in Bahrain.
  • model MiniMax -8.0 Salafi society firmly aligned with Bahrain's unitary monarchic structure and opposed to sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Gemini -8.0 Favors a strong unitary central state under the monarchy and opposes consociational or Shia power-sharing proposals.
  • model Grok -7.0 Bahrain's small size and Al-Menbar's focus on national Islamic reform within the existing unitary monarchy lead it to favor centralism over federal or sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Claude -6.0 Sunni Islamist loyalist of a small unitary monarchy with no federalist or power-sharing agenda.
  • model GPT -6.0 Sunni Islamist party politics in Bahrain are unitary and do not advocate federal or consociational restructuring.
  • model Qwen -5.0 As a Sunni Islamist party in a small unitary state
  • model Gemma -5.0 Prefers a strong unitary state aligned with the monarchy.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Supports unitary Bahraini state as Muslim Brotherhood affiliate favors centralized governance.
• Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH West alignment settled ↔ 10 pt +4.5
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Opposes US policies in the region but does not advocate military confrontation with the West.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Culturally ambivalent toward the West but loyalist to a Bahrain strategically tied to the US Fifth Fleet.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Supports Bahrain's strategic military and security alliance with Western blocs to counter regional threats like Iran.
  • model GPT +4.0 As a pro-regime Bahraini Sunni party it operates within a state strategically aligned with the US and Gulf partners.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Pro-Western strategically as Bahraini regime ally, despite cultural differences with Western liberalism.
  • model Grok +6.0 As a pragmatic loyalist Islamist group accommodating the pro-Western Bahraini monarchy which hosts US naval forces and normalized ties with Israel, it aligns strategically with Western security and economic partnerships.
  • model Qwen +6.0 It strategically aligns with Western powers due to shared opposition to Iran and support for the state.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports the state's strategic security partnership with the US.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Strategically aligned with the US Fifth Fleet presence and Gulf-Western security partnership.
• El Insaf (Equity Party) MR State & religion settled ↔ 10 pt -6.5
  • model Gemma -9.0 Supports the Islamic Republic framework where religion provides the foundation for law.
  • model Gemini -8.0 It firmly supports Islam as the sole state religion and foundational basis for the nation's legal and social framework.
  • model DeepSeek -8.0 Mauritania's constitution declares Islam the state religion and Sharia a source of law; El Insaf supports this religious legal framework.
  • model Kimi -7.0 El Insaf supports Islam as state religion and sharia as source of law, opposing secular separation.
  • model Qwen -7.0 Supports the constitutional status of Islam as the state religion and the basis of legislation.
  • model GPT -6.0 It supports the Islamic republic framework where religion remains central to law and public authority.
  • model Claude -6.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Islam "the sole source of legislation," framed as moderation (wasatiyya) — establishing yet centrist.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Mauritania's constitution defines it as an Islamic republic with sharia-based principles; El Insaf upholds this religious-state framework.
  • model Grok -5.0 El Insaf supports the Islamic Republic framework in which Sharia guides personal status law and religion holds recognized public institutional role.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 9 pt -3.0
  • model Gemma -5.0 Traditionalist in social and family matters.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Ra'am is socially traditionalist: supports religious family law, conservative social norms; not modernizing on gender/family.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Traditionalist but pragmatic in governance.
  • model Claude -3.0 Religiously traditionalist with pragmatic openness.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Conservative Islamist; traditionalist on social issues but pragmatic on governance.
  • model Gemini -3.0 Blends support for economic and technological advancement with traditionalist social and religious values.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok -1.0 Mixed: modernizing for community development but socially traditionalist.
  • model GPT +0.0 Ra’am combines pragmatic civic modernization with conservative Islamic social commitments.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Pragmatic focus on modernizing the Arab sector's infrastructure and economy.

  before · r1 gemini -3.0grok -3.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Mostaqbal Watan EG State & religion settled ↔ 9 pt -1.0
  • model Kimi -4.0 Supports current arrangement where religion has significant role in state; maintains Article 2 of constitution on Sharia.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Respects Islam as the state religion but maintains a secular-nationalist security apparatus.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Maintains state religion but pragmatically secular in governance.
  • model Gemini -2.0 While suppressing political Islam, it maintains the constitutional role of Islamic law and uses state religious institutions for legitimacy.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Accepts religion's role in public life but maintains state control.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 It supports the civil state formally while preserving official religious authority.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Accepts religion's role in public life but supports civil state framework.
  • model Claude +2.0 Promotes state-controlled religion within a nominally civil state.
  • model Grok +5.0 Supports regime's civil state rhetoric and control over religious institutions while permitting conservative religious expression aligned with authority.
• Justice and Development Party MA Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 9 pt -5.0
  • model Qwen -8.0 Supports a centralized state structure without federalist divisions.
  • model Grok -8.0 Supports the unitary centralized Moroccan state; Islamist platform does not advocate federal or sectarian power-sharing arrangements.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Strongly supports Morocco's unitary state structure and favors centralism over federal arrangements.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 PJD operates within Morocco's strongly centralist framework and has not advocated regional federalism or power-sharing.
  • model Claude -6.0 Centralist within the unitary Moroccan state.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally supports the central state
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 No federalist agenda; accepts centralist monarchy.
  • model GPT -4.0 PJD favors Morocco’s unitary constitutional state with limited decentralization.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +1.0 PJD supports Morocco's centralized unitary state structure as part of its conservative nationalist stance.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 9 pt +1.5
  • model Grok -6.0 As a mainstream Shia party, National Wisdom favors a strong central government in Baghdad and resists further federalization that could fragment Iraq or empower regions excessively.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Prefers a stronger central state than Kurdish parties but accepts the federal framework.
  • model Gemini -3.0 Al-Hikma favors a relatively centralized state authority in Baghdad, resisting expansive regional autonomy.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Hakim favors administrative decentralization but opposes further federal fragmentation; supports strong central state
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Accepts Iraqi federalism but prioritizes Shi'a unity and central state cohesion.
  • model GPT +2.0 It accepts Iraq’s federal constitution while emphasizing national cohesion.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Supports a balanced federalism but emphasizes national unity and a stronger central government than Kurdish parties.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Inherits ISCI's openness to a southern Shia federal region but in a more moderate form.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Hikma accepts Iraq's federal system, including the Kurdistan Region, and favors a degree of decentralization while not pushing maximalist federalism.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ Social settled ↔ 9 pt -4.5
  • model Grok -7.0 Rooted in religious Shia tradition, National Wisdom holds conservative views on social issues, family law, and moral authority with limited libertarian leanings.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Socially conservative
  • model Gemini -6.0 As a moderate Islamist movement led by clerics, it favors traditional collective moral authority over liberal social freedoms.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Adheres to traditional Islamic and social authorities.
  • model GPT -5.0 Its Shia Islamist background keeps it socially conservative.
  • model Claude -4.0 Moderate Islamist with socially conservative commitments.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Hakim is socially conservative as Shia cleric; supports traditional moral values with limited progressive elements
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Hikma is rooted in Shia religious tradition and reflects conservative social values on family, gender roles, and personal morality.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Promotes a moderate, tolerant social environment, though still rooted in conservative Iraqi society.
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ Regime stance settled ↔ 9 pt +6.0
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Works within Iraqi system but with strong autonomy and occasional confrontation with Baghdad.
  • model Kimi +2.0 PUK accepts Iraq's constitutional order while pushing for maximum Kurdish autonomy within it
  • model Claude +3.0 Works within federal Iraq and was lukewarm toward the 2017 independence bid.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +5.0 It accepts Iraq’s federal constitutional order as the framework for Kurdish autonomy.
  • model Grok +7.0 PUK is a foundational participant in post-2003 Iraq's federal order and defends the constitutional system while competing within it.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Supports the federal constitutional order of Iraq.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Integral to the post-2003 federal Iraqi state and the Kurdish autonomous region's legal framework.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 PUK is committed to Iraq's federal constitutional order and has produced Jalal Talabani as president of the republic; it works within the state framework.
  • model Gemini +8.0 The PUK is a core pillar of the post-2003 Iraqi constitutional order, consistently holding the national presidency.
• Southern Transitional Council YE Social settled ↔ 9 pt -2.0
  • model Gemma -5.0 They generally align with the traditional social values of southern Yemen.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 STC operates within conservative southern social norms and has not pushed libertarian reforms; personal and moral freedom is constrained, though not as severely as under the Houthis.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Reflects the historically more secular and socially relaxed culture of former South Yemen.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 STC is socially conservative but less repressive than Houthis; southern society remains traditional.
  • model Kimi -2.0 STC is relatively less socially conservative than Islah or Houthis, but southern society remains traditional and STC does not push social liberalization.
  • model GPT -2.0 It is more secular-nationalist than Islamist but still operates in a conservative society.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +1.0 The STC leans slightly more secular and socially permissive than its northern rivals, partly reflecting the secular political legacy of South Yemen.
  • model Claude +2.0 Relatively permissive, drawing on the south's secular socialist legacy.
  • model Grok +4.0 Drawing on the secular socialist legacy of the former PDRY, the STC is relatively more socially permissive and less focused on enforcing strict religious moral codes than northern Islamist actors.
• Justice and Construction Party LY Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 9 pt -4.5
  • model Gemini -6.0 Favors a unified central state structure and opposes regional federalist movements while supporting limited local decentralization.
  • model Grok -6.0 Advocates a strong central Islamic state and has consistently opposed federalist proposals that would decentralize power to regions or tribes.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Favors a strong unified central state to implement national policies and opposes regional fragmentation.
  • model Claude -5.0 Brotherhood-aligned party favors a strong unitary central state and opposes the eastern federalist/autonomy movements.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Wants strong central state under Islamist control opposes federalism
  • model GPT -4.0 The party has generally backed a unified post-Qaddafi Libyan state rather than strong regional federalism.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Favors a unitary state but accepts some local governance in principle.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Generally favors a unitary state to maintain ideological cohesion.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Libyan Brotherhood offshoot has been rhetorically open to decentralization but tends toward a unified state framework; slightly federalist tilt.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 9 pt -5.5
  • model Grok -8.0 Tewassoul accepts and operates within Mauritania's unitary centralized republican structure with no advocacy for federal or regional power-sharing.
  • model Qwen -7.0 Operates within and supports the centralized unitary state structure of Mauritania.
  • model DeepSeek -7.0 Tewassoul as a national Islamist party has not pushed for federalism and accepts Mauritania's unitary structure.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Generally favors a unitary state under an Islamic framework rather than ethnic or regional federalism.
  • model Claude -6.0 Centralist like Mauritanian parties generally; no federalist program.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Tewassoul supports the unitary central state but advocates for ethnic justice and administrative decentralization rather than federalism.
  • model GPT -5.0 Tewassoul operates within Mauritania’s unitary national frame rather than advocating federal redesign.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Tewassoul envisions a strong centralized Islamic state and has not advocated regional power-sharing.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Tewassoul operates within unitary state framework with no explicit federalist platform, focused on national reform.
• Hezbollah LB Regime stance settled ↔ 8 pt +2.0
  • model Qwen -3.0 Hezbollah operates within Lebanon’s system tactically but seeks to transform it into an Iran-aligned order.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Hezbollah participates in Lebanon's political system but maintains an armed militia outside state control and has threatened to overturn the government; it is ambivalent about the foundational order, accepting it partially while undermining it.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Participates in state but maintains parallel military structure; ambiguous.
  • model GPT +1.0 It participates in the Lebanese order while maintaining an armed parallel authority.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Hezbollah works within Lebanon's constitutional order tactically but pursues goals (Wilayat al-Faqih) incompatible with sovereign state pluralism.
  • model Claude +2.0 Works within and defends the order it dominates while maintaining an armed force outside the state.
  • model Grok +3.0 Operates within Taif framework and defends it against disarmament or federal challenges while seeking to amend it in its favor; integrated but transformative actor.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Uses the constitutional order to legitimize its presence while maintaining a parallel state.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Hezbollah actively works within and protects the current Lebanese political status quo against revolutionary change.
• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL Economic settled ↔ 8 pt -2.0
  • model Kimi -4.0 Islamist social welfare orientation; favors state support for Arab community.
  • model Claude -4.0 Welfare-and-development statism for its constituency.
  • model Grok -3.0 Populist welfare focus for Arab communities with statist lean.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Ra'am pushes for state welfare spending for Arab communities and against neoliberal cuts; moderately statist.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Supports state investment in underdeveloped Arab areas.
  • model GPT -2.0 Ra’am prioritizes state budgets and welfare for Arab communities over market ideology.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Centrist economic with social focus.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Takes a pragmatic approach to market mechanisms to foster economic development in Arab localities.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Pragmatic economic focus on developing the Arab sector and integrating into the market.

  before · r1 gemini -3.0grok -2.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• National Charter Party JO Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 8 pt -6.5
  • model Gemini -9.0 Staunchly supports Jordan's unitary state structure and centralized governance.
  • model Grok -8.0 Supports Jordan's existing unitary centralized state structure under the constitutional monarchy.
  • model Gemma -8.0 Strongly supports the centralist
  • model Qwen -8.0 Firmly supports a centralized unitary state to preserve national unity and regime stability.
  • model GPT -7.0 It is a pro-state Jordanian party committed to the kingdom’s unitary institutions.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Strongly centralist, supports Hashemite unitary state with no power-sharing
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -4.0 Centralist monarchic nationalism favoring a strong unitary state.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Jordanian centrist/loyalist party with no federalist agenda; explicitly unitary-state orientation.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Centrist loyalist party; no federalist agenda
• Reform Party JO Civil liberties settled ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model Gemini -3.0 Leans toward state restrictions on public dissent to preserve national stability and order.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Favors political stability and order, showing moderate support for civil liberties.
  • model Grok -2.0 Calls for expanded political participation and freedoms but within bounds that do not threaten social order or regime stability.
  • model Claude +1.0 Reform-branded centrist with a mild lean toward expanded freedoms.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Mildly supportive of expanding civil liberties within system constraints
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Moderate reformist; supports civil liberties but within legal limits.
  • model GPT +4.0 Its reformist label suggests support for expanded political freedoms, though specific commitments are unclear.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Advocates for a measured expansion of civil liberties within the legal framework.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Reform-oriented platform implies support for expanded civil liberties, though specific positions unclear.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Reform Party JO Regional stance settled ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model GPT -2.0 Its likely anti-normalization instincts are balanced by limited evidence of resistance-bloc alignment.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 Reform posture implies moderate regional stance, but limited public information reduces confidence.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Mildly pro-normalization track
  • model Grok +2.0 Generally supports stability and negotiated settlements but with stronger pro-Palestinian positions that edge toward resistance sympathies.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Leans toward stability camp, supports negotiated solutions and regional cooperation
  • model Claude +3.0 Leans toward the state's stability/normalization posture.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Aligns with the state's foreign policy of regional stability and diplomatic engagement.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Favors stability and diplomatic solutions over the
  • model Gemini +6.0 Endorses the state's regional posture of maintaining diplomatic stability and negotiated settlements.
• Justice and Development Party MA Liberal democracy settled ↔ 8 pt +1.3
  • model Gemini -4.0 While participating in elections, it defers to the ultimate executive and religious authority of the monarchy.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 In power weakened liberal checks; subservient to monarchy on key issues.
  • model GPT +0.0 PJD accepts elections and constitutional politics but operated within palace-dominated constraints.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Accepted electoral defeat but did not actively strengthen liberal democratic checks while in power.
  • model Kimi +1.0 PJD participated in elections but accepted palace constraints and did not challenge executive dominance.
  • model Claude +1.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Accepts elections but limited liberal commitment on minority rights and checks.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 PJD formally accepted constitutional monarchy but in government did not push for meaningful liberal-democratic checks on royal power.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +4.0 Advocates Islamic democracy and strong internal party democracy; in power demonstrated moderate liberal-democratic commitment but remained loyal to monarchical constraints.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Strong commitment to electoral processes and institutional participation.
• Justice and Development Party MA Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model Grok -1.0 Primarily Moroccan-Islamist nationalist with selective appeals to Muslim and Arab solidarity; largely particularist rather than secular pan-Arab.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 PJD's frame is more Islamist/transnational Muslim Brotherhood than classical pan-Arab; mixed but with a pan-Islamic regionalist outlook.
  • model Claude +1.0 Islamist rather than pan-Arab frame, but aligned with the anti-normalization current.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Islamist not pan-Arabist; weak pan-Arab frame.
  • model Gemini +3.0 Prioritizes broader pan-Islamic solidarity over secular pan-Arabism, while strongly supporting regional Arab causes.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Rooted in Islamist ideology that overlaps with broader pan-Arab and pan-Islamic solidarity.
  • model GPT +4.0 PJD frames Palestine and regional issues through Arab-Islamic solidarity more than pure Moroccan particularism.
  • model Kimi +5.0 PJD emphasizes Arab and Muslim solidarity in its platform, reflecting pan-Arab Islamist framing.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strong emphasis on Pan-Islamic and Pan-Arab solidarity.
• State of Law Coalition IQ Economic settled ↔ 8 pt -3.0
  • model Gemini -6.0 The coalition favors a statist economy, having vastly expanded public sector employment to build loyal patronage networks.
  • model Grok -6.0 State of Law embodies Iraq's classic rentier-statist model with extensive patronage, state employment, and resistance to market reforms that threaten political control.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Favors state-led economic control and extensive public sector allocation.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Favors heavy state control over the economy, characterized by cronyism and centralized resource distribution.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 State of Law era featured statist oil-revenue distribution, crony networks, and limited market reform — net statist with crony capitalist features.
  • model GPT -3.0 It relies on state patronage, public employment, and centralized allocation more than market liberalism.
  • model Claude -3.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Statist oil economy run through patronage networks.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Maliki favors state-led economic model with significant central control; not market-oriented
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 State-heavy oil economy with patronage distribution; some market reforms under pressure.
• State of Law Coalition IQ Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 8 pt -4.0
  • model Gemma -6.0 Focused on Iraqi Shia particularism and state-centric politics.
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini -4.0 The party prioritizes a Shia-first political identity within Iraq over pan-Arab solidarity, despite standard rhetoric on Palestine.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Prioritizes Iraqi state sovereignty and Shia political dominance over pan-Arab ideological solidarity.
  • model Grok -4.0 State of Law prioritizes Shia communal and Iraqi state interests over pan-Arab ideology, reflecting the particularist consolidation of post-2003 Shia political power.
  • model Claude -4.0 Shia-Islamist, Iraqi-sectarian framing rather than pan-Arab.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Maliki is Iraqi Shia Islamist particularist; not pan-Arab but uses anti-imperialist rhetoric
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Some pan-Arab rhetoric but primarily Iraqi Shi'a particularist in practice.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 State of Law under Maliki combined Shia religious identity with strong Iraqi nationalism and Arab framing — leans slightly particularist but with Arab-Islamist overtones.
  • model GPT +2.0 It has Iraqi Arab nationalist elements but is mainly Shia Islamist and state-centered.
• Democratic National Rally DZ Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model Gemini -3.0 The RND emphasizes Algerian specific state nationalism over pan-Arab political frameworks.
  • model Grok -3.0 Prioritizes Algerian nation-state interests over pan-Arab solidarity frameworks.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 RND is nationalist but not strongly pan-Arab; focuses on Algerian state interests.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Maintains a nationalist focus but supports general Arab solidarity.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 RND is mainly Algerian-state-centric with mild pan-Arab diplomatic gestures rather than deep Nasserist commitment.
  • model Qwen +3.0 Mild pan-Arab rhetoric but primarily nation-state focused.
  • model Claude +4.0 Algerian-nationalist but endorses pan-Arab solidarity and anti-normalization.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Moderate pan-Arab solidarity rhetoric within nationalist framework.
  • model GPT +4.0 It inherits Algerian nationalist and Arab-solidarity themes without being strongly pan-Arabist.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Movement of Society for Peace DZ Civil liberties settled ↔ 8 pt -3.0
  • model Qwen -5.0 Restricts liberties deemed un-Islamic; accepts limited pluralism within system.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 MSP as a moderate Islamist party supports restricting liberties that contradict Islamic morality.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Moderate restrictions; accepts limited pluralism.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Supports liberties within the bounds of Islamic morality.
  • model Claude -3.0 Moderate Islamist; participationist but with conservative limits on liberties.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 MSP has moderated compared to FIS but still favors religious-moral limits on speech and association.
  • model Grok -3.0 Moderate Islamist; accepts some pluralism but favors restrictions on content deemed un-Islamic or immoral.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +1.0 MSP declares support for political pluralism but balances it with Islamist social constraints.
  • model Gemini +3.0 As a legal opposition party, the MSP advocates for the expansion of political freedoms and civic participation.
• Movement of Society for Peace DZ Regional stance settled ↔ 8 pt -4.5
  • model Gemini -9.0 The MSP is aligned with the regional resistance camp and is a vocal opponent of any normalization with Israel.
  • model GPT -6.0 MSP is firmly anti-normalization and sympathetic to Palestinian resistance politics.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 MSP aligns with resistance axis
  • model Claude -5.0 Anti-normalization Islamist sympathetic to resistance causes.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 MSP strongly opposes normalization with Israel and rhetorically backs the resistance cause without being structurally aligned with the Iran-led axis.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Anti-normalization
  • model Kimi -4.0 Anti-normalization; sympathetic to resistance axis.
  • model Grok -3.0 Anti-normalization and pro-Palestinian but pragmatic, not part of Iran-led armed resistance axis.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Sympathetic to resistance but avoids explicit alignment; favors diplomacy.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Liberal democracy settled ↔ 8 pt -7.0
  • model Qwen -10.0 Rejects liberal democracy entirely ruling through an emirate-style system with no opposition or minority rights.
  • model DeepSeek -9.0 Rejects liberal democracy in favor of rule by Islamic law with no popular sovereignty.
  • model Gemma -9.0 Rejects liberal democracy in favor of Sharia-based governance.
  • model Gemini -9.0 HTS ideologically rejects liberal democracy and popular sovereignty, instead implementing an authoritarian governance model based on religious law.
  • model Kimi -7.0 HTS has never held elections, rules through a presidential decree system with no independent judiciary or meaningful opposition, and its March 2025 constitutional declaration centralizes power in the president.
  • model Claude -7.0 Authoritarian Idlib rule and a transitional order with sweeping executive powers and no elections yet.
  • model Grok -6.0 HTS post-2024 rule is centralized under its leader without established competitive elections or full liberal democratic checks and balances.
  • model GPT -6.0 Its governing practice has not established liberal checks, free opposition, or robust minority protections.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 HTS rules through a transitional executive structure with shura-style consultation rather than independent courts or pluralist checks; no meaningful liberal-democratic commitment.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Syrian National Coalition SY Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 8 pt +1.0
  • model Gemini -5.0 The Coalition generally favors a unified state with administrative decentralization, remaining wary of formal federalism.
  • model Grok -4.0 SNC backs unitary state with administrative decentralization but rejects ethnic federalism or partition risks favored by some Kurdish actors.
  • model Claude -3.0 Favored a unified Syria with decentralization but resisted strong federalism.
  • model Kimi -2.0 The SNC's platform generally favored a unified Syrian state but included recognition of Kurdish cultural rights and some decentralization, stopping short of federalism.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Advocates for administrative decentralization and local governance within a unified Syrian state avoiding strict centralism or full federalism.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 SNC documents endorse a decentralized Syria with meaningful local autonomy
  • model GPT +2.0 It accepts decentralization and local governance while stressing Syria's national unity.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Supports decentralized or federal solutions to accommodate Kurdish and local councils in a post-Assad Syria.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Generally supports a unitary state but allows for decentralization and administrative reform.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE Economic settled ↔ 8 pt +2.5
  • model Grok -4.0 Islah advocates Islamic economics emphasizing social justice, welfare, and state guidance rather than unfettered free-market mechanisms.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Islah supports a mixed economy with Islamic banking principles, generally favoring some market mechanisms within an Islamic framework.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Advocates for Islamic economics, blending state welfare with market mechanisms.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Islah accepts a market economy compatible with Islamic principles and is comfortable with private business, sitting slightly on the market side of center.
  • model Gemini +3.0 The party represents merchant networks and supports market mechanisms and private property, integrated with Islamic banking principles.
  • model Gemma +3.0 They generally favor a market-oriented economy with a religious social safety net.
  • model GPT +4.0 Its business and Sunni Islamist networks generally favor private enterprise and market mechanisms.
  • model Claude +4.0 Pro-market party rooted in merchant and business interests.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Islah leans toward free markets and private sector as part of its Islamist-capitalist orientation.
• Justice and Construction Party LY Liberal democracy settled ↔ 8 pt -2.5
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Contested elections but seeks to enshrine Islamic law and limit liberal-democratic checks.
  • model Grok -5.0 Accepts elections but subordinates liberal institutions and minority rights to Sharia supremacy; record includes alliances with armed groups when electoral outcomes were unfavorable.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Participates in elections but works to weaken liberal democratic checks
  • model Gemini -4.0 Participates in electoral politics but prioritizes religious authority and Sharia over liberal-democratic checks and minority rights.
  • model Claude -3.0 Contests elections but its religious-majoritarian project sits uneasily with liberal checks, minority rights, and judicial independence.
  • model Gemma -2.0 Often prioritizes Islamist political dominance over liberal-democratic checks and minority rights.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Record reflects 2014 refusal to recognize the elected House of Representatives and the parallel Tripoli government that bypassed constitutional transition; undermines liberal-democratic commitment.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Participates in elections but has exhibited majoritarian tendencies and sought to dominate state institutions when in power.
  • model GPT +1.0 It accepts elections and party competition but is not strongly liberal on courts, minorities, and dissent.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Islamic Asalah Society BH Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 8 pt -6.5
  • model Gemini -10.0 Vehemently demands a highly centralized unitary state to completely block Shia consociational or federal power-sharing.
  • model MiniMax -8.0 Salafi party firmly backing Bahrain's unitary monarchic structure and opposing sectarian power-sharing.
  • model Grok -8.0 As a pro-regime Salafi society focused on preserving Sunni interests within the existing system, it fully supports Bahrain's unitary central state without any advocacy for federalism or sectarian federal arrangements.
  • model DeepSeek -7.0 Ultra-conservative Salafi party supports strong unitary state under Sunni Islamic rule.
  • model GPT -7.0 Asalah's Salafi Sunni politics favor Bahrain's unitary monarchy and reject sectarian power-sharing formulas.
  • model Qwen -6.0 It strongly supports a centralized
  • model Claude -6.0 Loyalist Salafi society backing a strong unitary monarchy with no federalist agenda.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Supports the existing central state structure.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Salafi traditionalists favor strong unitary state under religious authority.
• National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR Economic settled ↔ 8 pt -1.0
  • model Gemma -5.0 Advocates for a social-justice oriented economy with significant state roles and Islamic principles.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Tewassoul supports a social market economy with state intervention for social justice but no clear statist command economy.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Tewassoul favors state-led welfare and social justice over pure market mechanisms, with Islamic economic principles.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Tewassoul favors an Islamic economic model combining market activity with state intervention for social welfare
  • model Qwen -2.0 Favors a regulated market economy with an emphasis on social justice and Islamic economic principles.
  • model Grok +0.0 Economic positions receive limited emphasis; platform aligns with moderate Islamist preference for regulated markets incorporating Islamic finance principles.
  • model GPT +0.0 Its platform mixes social justice and anti-corruption with acceptance of private enterprise.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The party supports market mechanisms and private property within an Islamic ethical framework that emphasizes social solidarity.
  • model Claude +3.0 Favors a market economy framed through Islamic finance and social justice.
• Tagammu Party EG Liberal democracy settled ↔ 8 pt +3.0
  • model Qwen -2.0 Supports popular participation but historically tolerant of single-party authoritarianism.
  • model GPT +0.0 It formally supports pluralism but its pro-state anti-Islamist record weakens liberal-democratic credentials.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Supports democracy rhetorically but with strong-state/Nasserist tradition; mixed liberal-democratic commitment.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Advocates democracy as guarantor of stability but has accommodated authoritarian regimes for survival.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Declared democratic values within a cooperative loyalist posture.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Its official platform endorses democratic socialism, though its actual alignment with the current regime compromises its commitment to liberal checks.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 Calls for democratic checks but weak in practice as marginal opposition.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Supports democratic processes and liberal reforms.
  • model Grok +6.0 Advocates democracy and popular participation as guarantor of stability and peaceful power transfer while defending 1952 revolutionary gains.
• Hezbollah LB Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 7 pt +3.0
  • model Grok -2.0 Invokes pan-Arab and anti-imperialist causes but primarily advances Shia sectarian empowerment and Iranian geopolitical objectives over genuine pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Hezbollah uses pan-Arab rhetoric selectively but is fundamentally Shia-Islamist and Iran-aligned.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Primarily Shia Islamist but uses pan-Arab resistance rhetoric instrumentally.
  • model Claude +3.0 Shia-Islamist in identity yet the leading actor of the contemporary anti-normalization tradition.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Hezbollah invokes pan-Arab anti-imperial rhetoric but its primary identity is Shia transnational (Wilayat al-Faqih) rather than pan-Arab.
  • model GPT +4.0 It uses Arab and Islamic resistance themes but is primarily Shiite Islamist and Iran-aligned.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Hezbollah uses pan-Arab and pan-Islamic solidarity rhetoric against Israel, but its primary identity is transnational Shiite Islamist rather than Nasserist/Baathist pan-Arab; it leans positive but not at the extreme.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Hezbollah frames its struggle within Islamic and regional resistance solidarity rather than classical pan-Arabism.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Frames its struggle within a pan-Islamic and pan-Arab anti-imperialist context.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB Liberal democracy settled ↔ 7 pt -2.5
  • model Gemma -5.0 Embedded in the sectarian system; record of weakening judicial independence.
  • model Gemini -4.0 FPM has often weakened independent judicial oversight and sought executive dominance during its time in power.
  • model Qwen -4.0 FPM participates in elections but has undermined checks and balances through alliances with Hezbollah.
  • model Grok -3.0 Participated in elections and held presidency but record includes political deals enabling paralysis and corruption allegations that undermined liberal checks.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Claimed reform but in power backed weakening of judicial independence.
  • model Kimi -2.0 FPM participates in elections but has been criticized for weakening institutions when in power; its commitment to liberal democratic checks is weak-to-moderate.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 FPM rhetorically champions sovereignty and reform but has tolerated Hezbollah's veto power and undermined independent institutions during Aoun's presidency.
  • model GPT -1.0 Its record under Aoun and Bassil mixed electoral participation with executive dominance and patronage.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +2.0 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Contests elections but its Hezbollah alliance and blocking of accountability weakened institutions.
• Religious Zionism Party IL Regime stance settled ↔ 7 pt +7.5
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Accepts Zionist order but wants more religious dominance.
  • model Claude +6.0 Defends a maximalist Jewish-state order while weakening its democratic checks.
  • model Grok +7.0 Strongly pro Zionist order but seeks to reshape it in religious settler image.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Religious Zionism defends the foundational Jewish character but rejects its liberal-democratic elements; net pro-regime on the ethno-Zionist core.
  • model Kimi +7.0 Defends Zionist state but seeks to transform it toward religious Jewish supremacy.
  • model GPT +8.0 It strongly defends the Zionist order while seeking a more religious-national state.
  • model Qwen +9.0 Strongly defends the state but seeks to redefine it with Halachic principles.
  • prior Author baseline +9.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Unwaveringly supports the Zionist state order, prioritizing its Jewish national character.
  • model Gemma +10.0 Extreme defender of the Zionist project.

  before · r1 gemini +5.0grok +9.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Fatah PS Economic settled ↔ 7 pt +1.5
  • model MiniMax -2.0 The PA operates a mixed economy with substantial public sector employment and donor dependency alongside a private sector.
  • re-coder Re-coder C -1.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the economic axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Manages a donor-dependent economy with a mix of state control and market mechanisms.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Fatah has moved toward market economy under PA, but retains statist remnants and donor-driven policies.
  • re-coder Re-coder B +1.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the economic axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • model Claude +2.0 PA pursued market-oriented, donor-aligned reforms alongside a large public sector.
  • model Grok +2.0 Fatah/PA has encouraged private sector growth and market reforms under Oslo economic frameworks while maintaining significant state and public sector dominance.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Fatah/PA has pursued market-oriented reforms with IMF/World Bank support, though the economy remains heavily aid-dependent and constrained by occupation.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Generally favors market mechanisms but relies heavily on state patronage and aid.
  • model GPT +3.0 Fatah accepts market mechanisms and donor-led private development within a patronage-heavy mixed economy.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Supports a market-oriented economy combined with a large public sector through Palestinian Authority employment.
• Fatah PS Social settled ↔ 7 pt -1.5
  • model Gemma -4.0 Generally adheres to traditional social norms and collective moral authority.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • re-coder Re-coder C -3.0 Second-pass coder C — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; magnitude follows the primary reading with independent judgment calls on the governance axes.
  • re-coder Re-coder B -2.0 Second-pass coder B — rubric-anchored re-read on the social axis; extreme magnitudes tempered slightly toward the rubric mid-anchors.
  • model Kimi -2.0 Fatah is secular but socially conservative; it does not actively promote LGBTQ+ rights or liberal social freedoms and operates within a conservative societal framework.
  • model Gemini -2.0 Leans toward traditional social authority in practice, respecting conservative societal norms while remaining officially secular.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Fatah is socially conservative by Western standards but relatively permissive within Palestinian context; mixed record.
  • model Qwen +0.0 A broad tent movement reflecting the socially conservative nature of Palestinian society.
  • model GPT +1.0 Fatah is secular-nationalist but socially cautious in a conservative society.
  • model Claude +2.0 Secular nationalist with modest social permissiveness in a conservative milieu.
  • model Grok +3.0 Fatah's secular nationalist tradition allows relatively greater social and personal freedoms compared to Islamist factions.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Fatah is a secular nationalist movement broadly permissive on personal lifestyle in declared platform.
• The Democrats IL Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 7 pt -3.0
  • model Grok -7.0 Center-left Zionist supports strong unitary Jewish-democratic state with reforms.
  • model Claude -6.0 Mainstream Zionist party committed to a unitary state.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Left-wing Zionist; supports centralized state with minority rights but not federalism.
  • model Gemini -5.0 Supports a unitary state framework with a focus on institutional equality rather than federalism.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Favors a unitary state.
  • model GPT -3.0 The Democrats favor a unitary Israeli state with equality and territorial compromise, not federalism.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 The Democrats are a centrist pro-democracy party; mildly supportive of regional/minority arrangements within Israel.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 Centrist.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Supports a unitary democratic state with territorial compromises.

  before · r1 grok -6.0gemini -2.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Otzma Yehudit IL Regime stance settled ↔ 7 pt +7.5
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Accepts Zionist order but wants more religious/ethnic dominance.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Otzma Yehudit defends a maximalist Jewish-supremacist version of the foundational order, though its liberal-democratic aspects are rejected.
  • model Claude +6.0 Defends a maximalist Jewish-state order while undermining its democratic component.
  • model Grok +6.0 Accepts Zionist order but pushes far more expansionist supremacist version of it.
  • model Kimi +7.0 Defends Jewish state but seeks to transform it into more explicitly Jewish supremacist order.
  • model GPT +8.0 It strongly defends the Jewish-Zionist order while pushing it in an illiberal ethnocratic direction.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Defends the state but wants to redefine it as an ethno-religious Jewish state.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Fiercely chauvinistic toward the Zionist state order, though seeking to eliminate its democratic checks.
  • prior Author baseline +9.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +10.0 Strongly supports the Jewish state

  before · r1 gemini +4.0grok +8.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Mubadara PS Economic settled ↔ 7 pt -0.5
  • model GPT -4.0 It favors social-democratic redistribution and public services more than free-market policy.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Social democratic platform favoring a strong welfare state and regulated markets.
  • model Claude -2.0 Social-democratic orientation with a redistributive lean.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Mubadara's economic platform is mixed, critical of neoliberal PA policies but not fully statist.
  • model Kimi +0.0 Mubadara focuses on social justice and combating poverty but does not have a clearly defined economic model; it supports job creation and welfare but has not taken a strong statist or market position.
  • model Grok +0.0 Mubadara promotes social democratic principles emphasizing equity and public welfare within a mixed economic framework.
  • model Gemma +0.0 Takes a centrist or mixed approach
  • model Gemini +2.0 Favors a social-democratic model that supports market mechanisms alongside robust state welfare and regulation.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Mubadara supports a market-oriented economy with a regulatory social safety net.
• Amal Movement LB Regime stance settled ↔ 7 pt +6.0
  • model Qwen +2.0 Amal operates within Lebanon’s constitutional order and holds institutional positions like Parliament Speaker, indicating pro-regime stance.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Accepts and works within Lebanon's consociational constitutional order.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Amal accepts Lebanon's foundational consociational order and has been a pillar of the post-Taif system as speaker; it defends the existing constitutional framework.
  • model Grok +6.0 Strong defender of the existing Taif constitutional order and sectarian power-sharing that secures its institutional positions against radical overhaul or federalism.
  • model GPT +6.0 Amal is a pillar of the post-Taif Lebanese constitutional order.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Defends the Taif Agreement and the consociational constitutional order.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Berri has served as parliamentary speaker since 1992 and Amal fully accepts Lebanon's confessional constitutional order.
  • model Claude +7.0 Deeply embedded in and defends the Taif constitutional order from which it benefits.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Amal's leader Nabih Berri is a core architect and defender of the post-Taif constitutional order.
• National Rally of Independents MA Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 7 pt -4.5
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Strongly particularist; focused on Moroccan national interest.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Prioritizes Moroccan national interests and particularism over pan-Arabism.
  • model Grok -6.0 Business-oriented and particularist; focuses on Moroccan economic interests and national branding with little emphasis on pan-Arab ideological solidarity.
  • model Gemini -6.0 Focuses strictly on a particularist Moroccan nation-state identity, with little ideological commitment to pan-Arabism.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Focused almost exclusively on Moroccan national interests.
  • model GPT -4.0 RNI is technocratic and Morocco-first rather than pan-Arab ideological.
  • model Claude -4.0 Moroccan-nationalist, monarchic, business-oriented particularism.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 RNI is firmly Moroccan-particularist, pro-monarchy, and rejects pan-Arab framing in favor of national economic development.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +1.0 RNI is a technocratic, Morocco-first party with minimal pan-Arab ideological framing.
• Authenticity and Modernity Party MA Civil liberties settled ↔ 7 pt -1.0
  • model Gemini -3.0 While presenting a liberal image, its governance record shows support for state restrictions on activities deemed destabilizing.
  • model Grok -3.0 Pro-regime party in governing coalitions has not pushed to expand civil liberties in an environment of ongoing restrictions on protests and critical speech.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 As a pro-regime party it has not actively expanded civil liberties and generally backs government restrictions.
  • model GPT -2.0 PAM speaks rights language but governs within a system that restricts dissent and protest.
  • model Claude -2.0 Liberal in rhetoric but an establishment party under a state with a restrictive liberties record.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 PAM's record in government coalitions is unremarkable; no strong profile either expanding or systematically restricting civil liberties.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Moderate stance; neither strongly expanding nor actively restricting civil liberties.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Promotes a moderate modernization agenda but does not challenge state security restrictions.
  • model Kimi +3.0 PAM has rhetorically supported some liberal reforms but operates within a system that restricts liberties.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Istiqlal Party MA West alignment settled ↔ 7 pt +5.0
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Istiqlal is a Western security partner of Morocco but rhetorically emphasizes Moroccan sovereignty; pragmatic rather than enthusiastic Western alignment.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Generally pro-Western strategically but with nationalist reservations.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +4.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Aligned with Morocco's pro-Western orientation.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Maintains strategic partnerships with the West while occasionally criticizing Western foreign policy.
  • model GPT +5.0 Istiqlal accepts Morocco’s Western partnerships despite nationalist rhetoric.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Istiqlal is a member of European center-right networks and supports Western strategic alignment.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Maintains a pragmatic and generally pro-Western strategic orientation.
  • model Grok +7.0 Strong strategic Western alignment via economic agreements, security ties, and participation in pro-stability regional frameworks.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Fully backs Morocco's deep strategic, economic, and security alliance with the United States and the European Union.
• Socialist Union of Popular Forces MA Regime stance settled ↔ 7 pt +4.5
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Accept monarchy but critical of its dominance; loyal opposition.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 USFP is in opposition and advocates constitutional reforms but accepts the monarchical framework pragmatically.
  • model GPT +4.0 USFP accepts the monarchy and constitutional order while seeking reform.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 USFP accepts the monarchical constitutional order and has governed under it (Youssoufi government 1998-2002), though it pushes democratic reforms within that frame.
  • model Grok +5.0 Accepts the constitutional monarchy and works within the system; historically pushed for real transfer of power to elected institutions and limits on makhzen influence.
  • model Claude +6.0 Former radical opposition now integrated into and loyal to the monarchical order.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Accepted the monarchical constitutional order by participating in government coalitions.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports the constitutional order but acts as a critical voice for reform.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Operates completely within the established institutional framework as a loyal participant in the monarchical system.
• Kurdistan Democratic Party IQ Civil liberties settled ↔ 7 pt -3.0
  • model Claude -5.0 In power in the KRG with a record of jailing journalists and suppressing protests, notably the Badinan cases.
  • model Gemini -5.0 In power within the KRG, the KDP has a record of restricting journalistic freedoms and suppressing public protests.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Record of suppressing political opponents and critical media in KDP-controlled governorates.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Record in the KRI includes restrictions on political dissent and press freedom.
  • model GPT -3.0 Its KRG record includes opposition and media pressure despite some pluralist space.
  • model Grok -3.0 KDP-led KRG exhibits a mixed but often restrictive record on press freedom and dissent, with documented journalist harassment and political pressure on media.
  • model Kimi -2.0 KDP tolerates limited dissent in KRG; has been accused of suppressing opposition media and protests
  • model MiniMax -2.0 KDP rule in Erbil has featured periodic crackdowns on journalists, protest organizers, and opposition activists, especially after 2017 independence referendum.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Some civil liberties exist in KRG but KDP has cracked down on opposition media and protests.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Kurdistan Democratic Party IQ Liberal democracy settled ↔ 7 pt -3.5
  • model Gemma -5.0 Power is concentrated in the Barzani family with limited effective checks.
  • model Grok -5.0 KRG under KDP holds elections but features dynastic control, weak institutional checks, corruption, and limited genuine opposition space, scoring low on liberal democratic standards.
  • model Gemini -4.0 The KDP's governance is characterized by dynastic family control and the repeated postponement of regional elections, weakening democratic institutions.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Dominates KRG politics with authoritarian practices and manipulation of parliamentary processes.
  • model GPT -4.0 Its dominance in Erbil relies on patronage, security pressure, and weak institutional checks.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Contests elections but dominates KRG politics with dynastic rule and limited opposition space.
  • model Kimi -2.0 KDP accepts electoral process but Barzani family dominance and suppression of dissent weaken liberal democratic checks
  • model MiniMax +0.0 KDP contests elections and tolerates opposition in Baghdad, but in KRG it has presided over dynastic dominance, weak judiciary, and limited press freedom — net centrist.
  • model Claude +0.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Civil society governed by law, political pluralism, peaceful transfer of power, a federal parliamentary system.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ Economic settled ↔ 7 pt +2.0
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini -3.0 The PUK favors a statist economic approach heavily reliant on public sector employment and state-directed resource allocation.
  • model Claude -1.0 Social-democratic roots now overlaid with patronage; mixed and slightly statist.
  • model GPT -1.0 Its social-democratic legacy and public-sector patronage make it more statist than market-liberal.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Sulaymaniyah's economy under PUK is more trade-oriented and pluralistic than Erbil, leaning market with a welfare component.
  • model Kimi +2.0 PUK supports market economy with stronger social welfare orientation than KDP; more statist tendencies
  • model Gemma +2.0 Mixed approach with elements of market openness and significant state patronage.
  • model Qwen +3.0 Supports private investment and market economics, though party-affiliated business monopolies exist.
  • model Grok +3.0 PUK has historically left-leaning economic views but in practice supports market elements in KRG while favoring more state intervention than KDP.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 PUK supports market economy but retains state influence typical of Kurdish governance.
• Democratic National Rally DZ Economic settled ↔ 7 pt -2.0
  • model Gemma -4.0 Favors a mixed economy with significant state control over strategic sectors.
  • model Grok -4.0 Favors state-led development and hydrocarbon nationalism with limited market liberalization.
  • model Qwen -3.0 Leans statist with limited market reforms, reflecting regime orthodoxy.
  • model Gemini -2.0 The RND favors a state-guided economy but is more receptive to market reforms and private enterprise than the FLN.
  • model GPT -2.0 The RND mixes pro-business reforms with Algeria's enduring state-led economic model.
  • model Claude -2.0 Somewhat more market-friendly than FLN but still embedded in the statist rentier model.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 RND rhetorically favors private enterprise but has defended the hydrocarbon state and public-sector dominance rather than full liberalization.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 RND generally supports state-led development but has backed some market-oriented reforms.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Supports gradual market reforms while maintaining statist reflexes.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Civil liberties settled ↔ 7 pt -6.5
  • model Qwen -10.0 Imposes strict restrictions on speech protest and association through its security apparatus and religious police.
  • model Gemini -9.0 HTS strictly curtails civil liberties in Idlib, actively suppressing political opposition, protests, and free association.
  • model Gemma -8.0 Record in Idlib involves severe restrictions on speech and association.
  • model DeepSeek -8.0 HTS restricts speech and assembly in its Idlib territory
  • model MiniMax -7.0 HTS in power has continued to restrict protest and dissent
  • model Kimi -6.0 In Idlib, HTS restricted protests, detained dissenters, and controlled civil society; post-Assad, some space has opened but red lines remain unclear and arrests of critics continue.
  • model GPT -6.0 Its record in Idlib restricted dissent, protest, and independent civic activity despite tactical moderation.
  • model Claude -6.0 Suppressed dissent in Idlib and concentrates power now; some opening relative to Assad.
  • model Grok -5.0 HTS in power has shown mixed record with some restrictions on dissent and media alongside relative improvement over prior regime repression.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Economic settled ↔ 7 pt +2.5
  • model Qwen -2.0 Allows market mechanisms but heavily regulates and taxes trade through its centralized salvation government.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 HTS has tolerated informal market activity and accepted some Western-backed economic stabilization
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 HTS in Idlib tolerated private markets and trade, especially with Turkey, while maintaining state-like control over taxation and key services; post-Assad it has initiated economic reforms.
  • model Grok +2.0 HTS Idlib administration used taxation and allowed private markets and trade demonstrating pragmatic acceptance of market activity.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 HTS has allowed private trade and services while taxing them; no large-scale state ownership.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Allows market activity but maintains strong state-like control over key resources.
  • model Gemini +4.0 HTS permits private commerce and market mechanisms under its rule, though it frequently imposes monopolies and heavy regulations.
  • model GPT +4.0 Its local administration has leaned pragmatic and market-tolerant more than socialist-statist.
  • model Claude +5.0 Ran a market-based economy in Idlib and courts Gulf and foreign reconstruction investment.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Liberal democracy settled ↔ 7 pt +3.5
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Fluctuating record; participates electorally but has allied with military rulers inconsistently.
  • model Qwen +1.0 Participates in elections but has a weak commitment to liberal democratic checks, often making pacts with the military.
  • model Claude +2.0 Contests elections and accepts pluralism, but sectarian patronage and past accommodation with the Bashir regime cap its liberal-democratic commitment.
  • model Gemini +2.0 The DUP supports democratic governance in principle but has repeatedly compromised and participated in non-democratic arrangements.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +4.0 It supports civilian constitutional politics, but its record is more elite-brokerage than deep liberal-democratic reform.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 DUP was part of the Forces of Freedom and Change civilian coalition supporting a democratic transition and opposed the October 2021 coup, giving it a credible pro-democracy record.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Platform commits to multiparty democracy and democratic pluralism since 1960s congress.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly committed to a parliamentary system with liberal checks and balances.
  • model Grok +7.0 Core commitment to democratic pluralism independent institutions free elections and civilian transition from military rule.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 7 pt -0.5
  • model Gemini -3.0 The party is structurally dependent on traditional sectarian and Sufi family networks, leaning traditionalist.
  • model Claude -2.0 Conservative sectarian establishment party, more preservationist than reformist though pragmatic in practice.
  • model Kimi -1.0 Pragmatic centrist, neither strongly modernizing nor deeply traditionalist.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -1.0 It mixes establishment modern politics with traditional religious and family-network structures.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 No strong program for modernization; tepid on social reform.
  • model Qwen +1.0 Balances a traditional religious base with support for modern education and economic development.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 DUP rhetoric is mixed: it supports women's participation and institutional reform in principle but is constrained by its traditionalist religious base.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Generally supportive of institutional modernization and reform.
  • model Grok +4.0 Promotes secular democratic and economic modernization alongside gradual social reform.
• Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 7 pt +3.5
  • model Grok -2.0 Islah frames politics primarily through pan-Islamic solidarity and Yemeni national interests rather than secular pan-Arab nationalism, though it shares anti-normalization goals.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Islah is Yemeni-first Islamist but uses pan-Islamic rhetoric not pan-Arab.
  • model Claude +2.0 Pan-Islamic and anti-normalization leanings over strict Arab nationalism.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +3.0 It combines Yemeni party politics with broader Arab-Islamist solidarity.
  • model Gemini +4.0 Islah combines Islamic solidarity with a strong commitment to Arab identity and pan-Arab causes.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Islah uses pan-Arab and pan-Islamic rhetoric, aligning with Muslim Brotherhood transnationalism, though primarily focused on Yemeni politics.
  • model Qwen +5.0 Transnational Islamist orientation aligns more with pan-Islamism/pan-Arabism than Yemeni particularism.
  • model Gemma +5.0 They combine Arab nationalism with an overarching Islamic identity.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Islah frames itself as part of the broader pan-Islamic/pan-Arab Islamist current, but its Yemeni Islah identity has strong particularist, tribal-roots dimensions.
• Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 7 pt -2.0
  • model Gemma -6.0 Prioritizes traditional religious authority over Western-style social modernization.
  • model Grok -6.0 Opposes reforms to family law by secular or elected institutions and prioritizes traditional religious frameworks in social life, marking it as traditionalist rather than modernizing on institutional and gender issues.
  • model Gemini -4.0 Stands traditionalist regarding social and religious norms while advocating for modern institutional and political reforms.
  • model DeepSeek -3.0 Accepts some modernization but resists liberal social reforms.
  • model Qwen -2.0 It balances modern political organizing and grassroots mobilization with traditional religious values.
  • model Claude -2.0 Politically reformist yet religiously traditional, netting a slight traditionalist lean.
  • model GPT -1.0 It combines Islamist social conservatism with reformist demands for elected institutions and civil participation.
  • prior Author baseline -1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 Mixed posture: supported women's political participation and reformist clerical discourse but maintained traditional religious frameworks.
  • model Kimi +1.0 Some reformist elements but generally traditionalist on social and family issues.
• National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR Regional stance settled ↔ 7 pt -5.5
  • model GPT -7.0 Its anti-normalization and pro-Hamas-style resistance sympathies place it near the resistance pole.
  • model DeepSeek -7.0 Tewassoul aligns ideologically with anti-normalization and expresses sympathy for resistance movements including Hamas.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly aligned with anti-normalization and maximalist resistance rhetoric.
  • model Gemini -7.0 The party strongly aligns with regional resistance politics, opposing normalization and backing movements like Hamas.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 Tewassoul is firmly anti-normalization
  • model Claude -5.0 Anti-normalization Islamist sympathetic to Palestinian armed resistance.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Tewassoul leans toward anti-normalization and resistance solidarity, opposing Gulf-Israel détente and Abraham Accords.
  • model Grok -3.0 Islamist identity and past anti-Israel activism locate the party closer to resistance or anti-normalization posture than pragmatic stability alignment.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen +0.0 Balances ideological sympathy for regional Islamist movements with pragmatic participation in the existing regional order.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB Civil liberties settled ↔ 7 pt -2.5
  • model Gemini -4.0 During its tenure in the presidency, FPM frequently used state institutions to curb political dissent and critics.
  • model Grok -4.0 Presidency (2016-2022) coincided with economic collapse and 2019-2020 protests met with limited institutional accountability and some repression.
  • model Qwen -3.0 FPM rhetorically supports freedoms but has tolerated restrictions when in government coalitions.
  • model Claude -3.0 In office pursued defamation suits against critics; a mixed-to-restrictive record.
  • model Gemma -3.0 Record in government shows a tendency to restrict dissent and opposition.
  • model DeepSeek -2.0 In government
  • model GPT +0.0 It uses reformist language but has shown tolerance for pressure on critics while in power.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 FPM rhetoric supports pluralism but its behavior in power (Aoun presidency) included restrictions on protest and selective tolerance of dissent.
  • model Kimi +0.0 FPM has held ministerial portfolios; its record is mixed with some tolerance for dissent but also instances of restricting opposition voices, placing it near centrist.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Free Patriotic Movement LB Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 6 pt +2.0
  • model Qwen -1.0 FPM mixes modern state-building rhetoric with traditional social conservatism, resulting in near-neutral score.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +1.0 FPM is mixed on modernization; it supports some institutional and economic modernization but remains traditionalist on social and gender issues, making it roughly centrist on this axis.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Favors technocratic and economic modernization while remaining socially traditional.
  • model Grok +2.0 Pragmatic support for some institutional and economic modernization during Aoun era, tempered by social conservatism and political clientelism.
  • model Claude +2.0 Projects a technocratic, reformist self-image.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Presents itself as modernizing but slowed by political alliances.
  • model GPT +4.0 Its declared platform emphasizes administrative reform technology and modernization.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 FPM promotes reform and modernization rhetoric
  • model Gemini +5.0 FPM champions institutional modernization, digital governance, and administrative reform in its platform.
• Yesh Atid IL Regional stance settled ↔ 6 pt +7.0
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Supports normalization and stability; Abraham Accords supporter.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Yesh Atid supports regional normalization and the Abraham Accords framework.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-normalization.
  • model Claude +7.0 Firmly in the normalization and stability camp.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Aligned with the stability camp and supports regional normalization.
  • model Grok +7.0 Supports Abraham Accords style normalization and regional stability.
  • model GPT +8.0 It favors normalization, US-backed diplomacy, and regional stability.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Strongly champions regional stability and diplomatic normalization via the Abraham Accords framework.
  • model Gemma +9.0 Strongly promotes normalization and regional stability.

  before · r1 grok +6.0gemini +7.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Fatah PS Regime stance settled ↔ 6 pt +8.0
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Fatah accepts the PA framework as the basis for a future state, thus pro-regime relative to current Palestinian order.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Fatah created and defends the PA as the foundational order of Palestinian self-governance, though internal divisions and authoritarian drift have weakened this commitment.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +7.0 Fatah is the primary architect and defender of the Palestinian Authority's constitutional order under the Oslo framework.
  • model Claude +8.0 Fatah is the foundational PLO/PA order and defends it.
  • model MiniMax +8.0 Fatah is the dominant force behind the PLO/PA constitutional order and defends it.
  • model GPT +8.0 It defends the existing PLO-PA constitutional and diplomatic order that it largely built.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Acts as the foundational architect and defender of the current Palestinian Authority constitutional order.
  • model Qwen +10.0 Fatah is the ruling party of the Palestinian Authority and defends its existing order.
  • model Gemma +10.0 Fatah is the foundational entity of the Palestinian Authority's current order.
• Ta'al IL West alignment settled ↔ 6 pt -3.5
  • model Gemini -6.0 Highly critical of Western diplomatic and military bias toward Israel.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Critical of Western policies and leans non-aligned.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Anti-Western due to Israel policy.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Critical of Western strategic support for Israel.
  • model MiniMax -4.0 Ta'al is anti-Western strategically, aligning with anti-Western Arab-nationalist and pro-Palestinian positions.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Critical of Western support for Israel; aligns with Arab nationalist causes.
  • model Claude -2.0 Mildly critical of Western policy without strong anti-Westernism.
  • model Grok -2.0 Critical of Western bias toward Israel; prefers balanced or non-aligned posture.
  • model GPT -1.0 Ta’al is critical of Western-backed Israeli policy without a consistent anti-West strategic line.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.

  before · r1 gemini -5.0grok -1.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• National Unity IL Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 6 pt -5.0
  • model Grok -8.0 Centrist security-focused party committed to unitary Jewish-democratic state.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Supports a centralized unitary state framework without regional devolution.
  • model Claude -6.0 Centrist Zionist party committed to a unitary state.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Centrist Zionist; opposes federalism threatening Jewish majority.
  • model GPT -6.0 National Unity favors a unitary Israeli state and security-based territorial separation.
  • model Gemma -4.0 Favors a unitary state.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Centralist.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 National Unity is a centrist Zionist party supporting a unitary Jewish-democratic state with mild autonomy elements.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Favors a unitary state with security control rather than federalism.

  before · r1 grok -8.0gemini -6.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 6 pt -6.5
  • model MiniMax -9.0 Strongly centralist like virtually all Egyptian parties; no federalist platform plank.
  • model Gemini -8.0 The party firmly supports Egypt's traditional unitary state structure and centralized governance.
  • model Grok -8.0 Egyptian Social Democratic Party operates fully within Egypt's unitary centralized republican framework with no platform support for federalism or regional power-sharing.
  • model Qwen -8.0 Strongly supports Egypt's unitary state structure.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Egypt is strongly centralist and the party has no stated position favoring federalism, aligning with Egypt's unitary tradition.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Supports unitary state and strong central government without devolution to regions.
  • model Claude -6.0 Operates within Egypt's strongly centralist tradition; no devolution agenda.
  • model Gemma -5.0 Favors a unitary Egyptian state consistent with most domestic political parties.
  • model GPT -5.0 It favors Egypt's unitary state while supporting decentralization rather than federalism.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Islamic Action Front JO Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 6 pt -5.0
  • model Grok -7.0 Resists social and legal modernization that conflicts with traditional Sharia-based family structures and religious public authority.
  • model Gemma -6.0 Favors traditional social structures and religious authority over modern secular norms.
  • model Gemini -6.0 Maintains a traditionalist stance on social and family laws, rejecting Western-style social modernization.
  • model Claude -5.0 Traditionalist on family law and religious authority while accepting technological change.
  • model Kimi -5.0 Traditionalist on womens rights and family law, resistant to liberal social modernization
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Socially traditionalist
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT -3.0 It accepts institutional reform and modern campaigning while remaining socially and religiously conservative.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Accepts modern political institutions but remains traditionalist regarding family law and gender roles.
  • model MiniMax -1.0 Mixed: supports institutional reform and some women's participation, but conservative on family law and personal status.
• Islamic Action Front JO West alignment settled ↔ 6 pt -5.5
  • model Gemini -9.0 Vehemently opposes strategic, military, and political alignment with Western powers.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Strongly critical of Western strategic alignment
  • model Grok -7.0 Strongly critical of Western strategic policies, US support for Israel, and perceives the West as hostile to Islamic governance.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Anti-Western strategically, opposes US military presence and Western regional dominance
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Anti-normalization with US/West due to Palestine and Iraq war opposition.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Geopolitically opposed to US influence and military presence in the region.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 Historically anti-Western, critical of US policy on Palestine; cooperates tactically with Western aid but rhetorically hostile.
  • model Claude -4.0 Strategically critical of US/Western influence in Jordan and the region.
  • model GPT -4.0 It is critical of US-led regional policy and Western backing for Israel while not rejecting all Western ties.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Jordanian Communist Party JO Social settled ↔ 6 pt +5.5
  • model Kimi +2.0 More socially progressive than Islamists on some issues but still conservative by Western standards
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +4.0 Secular left, comparatively permissive on social and moral questions.
  • model Grok +4.0 Promotes progressive secular values, women's emancipation, and social modernization consistent with leftist ideology, though tempered by local conservatism.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Secular, progressive on personal freedoms and women's rights; class politics frames social issues.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Secular and permissive on social freedoms; supports LGBTQ+ rights and women's autonomy.
  • model Gemini +6.0 Supports secular social values and women's rights over traditional religious authority.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Secular and generally supportive of individual social liberties.
  • model GPT +7.0 Its secular left orientation favors personal liberties and individual expression.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Promotes secularism, gender equality, and progressive social freedoms.
• Reform Party JO Economic settled ↔ 6 pt +2.5
  • model Grok +0.0 Mixed position advocating economic reform, anti-corruption, and some market mechanisms alongside social protections.
  • model GPT +1.0 Available cues suggest pragmatic reformism rather than a clearly statist or market program.
  • model Claude +2.0 Moderate market-leaning economic stance.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Likely market-leaning with reform rhetoric, though limited public detail on specific economic platform.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Moderately pro-market, supports some economic liberalization and reform
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Pro-market
  • model Qwen +5.0 Promotes business-friendly, market-oriented economic policies.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Favors market mechanisms, private sector growth, and standard economic liberalization programs.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Favors market-oriented economic reforms and liberalization.
• Istiqlal Party MA Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 6 pt +1.0
  • model Gemma -2.0 Cautious about rapid social modernization that might conflict with tradition.
  • model MiniMax -2.0 Istiqlal is traditionalist on family law and gender but pragmatic on economic modernization; mixed but tilts conservative.
  • model Claude -1.0 Tradition-leaning conservatism, pragmatically reformist at most.
  • model Gemini +1.0 Supports technological and economic modernization while remaining cautious and traditionalist on family and social issues.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Some modernizing economic policies but socially traditional.
  • model GPT +1.0 Istiqlal supports institutional development while retaining conservative social instincts.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Supports gradual modernization while respecting traditional institutions.
  • model Kimi +3.0 Istiqlal emphasizes tradition and moderate reform rather than rapid modernization.
  • model Grok +4.0 Favors economic and institutional modernization but takes a cautious, conservative approach to rapid social and cultural change.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY Press freedom settled ↔ 6 pt -7.0
  • model Qwen -10.0 Maintains strict control over all media and information heavily censoring independent journalism.
  • model Gemini -9.0 HTS enforces state-like media control in Idlib, systematically arresting and censoring independent journalists who dissent.
  • model DeepSeek -9.0 Controls or shuts down independent media in Idlib
  • prior Author baseline -8.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma -8.0 Exerts tight control over media and information in its territory.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 HTS has retained significant control over Syrian media landscape since late 2024
  • model Claude -6.0 Detained journalists in Idlib and restricts critical media under the transition.
  • model GPT -6.0 Its areas of control have seen pressure on journalists and limits on independent media.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Post-Assad, some media space has opened but the March 2025 constitutional declaration allows restrictions on press for 'national security' and 'public morals,' and journalists have been arrested.
  • model Grok -4.0 HTS exercises control over press and information with documented cases of journalist detention for critical coverage in its territories.
• Ba'ath Party (Syria) SY Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 6 pt +4.0
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 Mixed: secular education and some women’s legal gains
  • model Gemma +0.0 Combines state-led institutional modernization with social traditionalism.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 Ba'ath promoted women's education and workforce participation and secular modernization
  • model GPT +3.0 It favors state modernization and education while preserving corporatist and patriarchal structures.
  • model Claude +5.0 Secular state-led modernization including women's rights and education.
  • model Grok +5.0 Ba'ath pursued state-driven modernization expanding education infrastructure and women's public roles alongside economic projects.
  • model Kimi +5.0 The Ba'ath promoted modernization in education, women's participation, and state institutions, though within an authoritarian framework.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The party favors state-led institutional modernization and women's participation over traditional religious authority.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Promotes state-led modernization education and technological development albeit within an authoritarian framework.
• Syrian National Coalition SY Social settled ↔ 6 pt +1.0
  • model Gemini -3.0 The Coalition's social outlook is influenced by traditional and conservative social norms, balancing secular and Islamist factions.
  • model GPT -2.0 Its coalition includes secular liberals and conservatives, leaving social policy mildly traditional.
  • model Grok -2.0 SNC coalition spans secular and Islamist views yielding moderate traditional lean on moral social issues with some personal freedom support.
  • model Claude -2.0 Big-tent coalition spanning liberals and Islamists, netting moderate conservatism.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Platform socially moderate but contains Islamist factions; no strong permissive stance.
  • model Gemma +1.0 Generally moderate
  • model Qwen +2.0 A broad coalition with mixed social views but its dominant liberal and secular factions lean toward greater personal freedoms.
  • model Kimi +2.0 The SNC was a broad coalition including secular liberals and Islamists; its platform was ambiguous on social freedoms, with internal disagreement between progressive and conservative factions.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 SNC is a broad coalition of secularists and Islamists
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• National Umma Party SD West alignment settled ↔ 6 pt +2.5
  • model Kimi +0.0 No strong strategic alignment declared, pragmatically neutral.
  • prior Author baseline +0.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +0.0 NUP has oscillated between Western engagement and criticism, including ties with Gulf and Western capitals, leaving its strategic posture close to neutral.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is pragmatic toward Western diplomacy but not strategically anchored in a Western bloc.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Open to Western engagement but not strongly aligned.
  • model Qwen +3.0 Maintains a pro-Western strategic posture, historically enjoying support from Western democracies.
  • model Claude +3.0 Generally open to Western partnership and not anti-Western in posture.
  • model Grok +3.0 Maintains pragmatic international outlook open to partnerships that support peace and development.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The NUP maintains cooperative diplomatic relations and strategic engagement with Western blocs.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Strongly pro-Western in its strategic and diplomatic orientation.
• Sudanese Communist Party SD Regional stance settled ↔ 6 pt -4.5
  • model Gemma -8.0 Strongly opposes normalization and aligns with anti-imperialist resistance.
  • model Claude -7.0 Firmly anti-normalization and opposed to the Abraham Accords and Israel ties, sitting in the resistance camp.
  • model GPT -6.0 It is firmly anti-normalization and anti-imperialist, though not simply a proxy of the Iran-led axis.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 SCP is firmly anti-normalization and pro-Palestinian resistance, with historical ties to resistance movements, though it frames this through anti-imperialism rather than religious axis politics.
  • model Gemini -5.0 The party firmly opposes the normalization camp and Western regional hegemony, leaning toward the anti-normalization axis.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Opposes normalization but critical of Iran-theocratic axis; positions are complex.
  • model Grok -4.0 Anti-imperialist critique of foreign interference and comprador elites in the civil war aligns with resistance to normalization and external domination.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Anti-imperialist posture critical of Western regional order, ideologically closer to resistance camp.
  • model Qwen -2.0 Maintains a leftist, anti-imperialist posture that is skeptical of both Western and regional conservative camps.
  • prior Author baseline -2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Democratic Unionist Party SD West alignment settled ↔ 6 pt +2.0
  • model MiniMax -1.0 DUP has had historically cordial relations with Western and Egyptian capitals, but rhetorically it distances itself from Western pressure and is closer to non-alignment.
  • model DeepSeek -1.0 Leans non-aligned with some suspicion of Western intervention.
  • model GPT +1.0 It is not ideologically pro-Western, but it is pragmatic and not strongly anti-Western strategically.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +2.0 Historically sought closer US ties than rival Umma Party, pragmatically open to Western engagement.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Strategically aligned with Western and regional allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, though not a primary Western client.
  • model Claude +3.0 Pragmatic and broadly open to Western diplomatic and economic ties, not hostile.
  • model Grok +4.0 Engages pragmatically with Western and moderate regional powers for peace and stability.
  • model Gemini +5.0 The DUP maintains a favorable strategic posture toward Western and pro-Western regional powers.
  • model Gemma +5.0 Seeks strategic partnership and diplomatic support from Western powers.
• General People's Congress YE West alignment settled ↔ 6 pt +2.5
  • model Kimi +0.0 GPC is deeply factionalized: some factions cooperate with Saudi/US coalition, others allied with Houthis/Iran; overall stance unclear.
  • model GPT +1.0 It has pursued pragmatic Western and Gulf ties without a strong ideological pro-West posture.
  • prior Author baseline +1.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +2.0 GPC under Saleh was a US security partner (drone cooperation, counterterrorism) while rhetorically anti-Western; current PLC alignment with Saudi coalition keeps it mildly pro-Western strategically.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 GPC under Saleh cooperated with US counterterrorism but was not deeply pro-Western.
  • model Claude +3.0 Cooperated with the US on counterterrorism and leans toward Saudi/Western backers.
  • model Grok +4.0 The GPC under Saleh engaged in counter-terrorism and security cooperation with the United States and maintained pragmatic strategic ties with Western and Gulf partners.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Strategically aligned with the US and Saudi Arabia in the fight against the Houthis.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Historically and strategically aligned with Western security interests.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The internationally recognized wing of the GPC maintains a pro-Western strategic orientation, cooperating with Western and Gulf security partners.
• Southern Transitional Council YE Economic settled ↔ 6 pt +3.5
  • model Qwen +0.0 Mixed approach relying heavily on UAE patronage while managing local market disruptions.
  • model Claude +1.0 UAE-backed and market-leaning, though without a developed economic platform.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 STC has no strong economic ideology; relies on UAE and private sector pragmatically.
  • model GPT +3.0 It favors investment, ports, and market-oriented reconstruction more than state socialism.
  • model Gemma +4.0 They generally favor market-led development and foreign investment in the south.
  • model Kimi +4.0 STC supports opening southern ports and economic development, generally favoring market mechanisms over state control.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The STC favors market-oriented mechanisms and private investment, reflecting Aden's historic commercial role and alignment with UAE economic models.
  • model Grok +6.0 The STC promotes market-oriented policies, foreign investment, and port development in the south, contrasting with statist wartime control elsewhere in Yemen.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 STC discourse and UAE-aligned technocrats push market-friendly reforms, ports management, and private investment, with relatively less reliance on state allocation than rivals.
• Southern Transitional Council YE Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 6 pt +3.0
  • model Qwen +0.0 Seeks modern state institutions for an independent South but is hindered by war and patronage.
  • model DeepSeek +0.0 STC has no clear modernization agenda; traditionalist in practice.
  • model Kimi +2.0 STC supports economic and institutional modernization for southern development, but not radical social transformation.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +3.0 They show more openness to institutional modernization than the interior-focused parties.
  • model Claude +3.0 UAE-backed secular-leaning orientation favoring modernization.
  • model Gemini +4.0 The STC embraces institutional and economic modernization, closely mirroring the developmental model of its Gulf sponsors.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 STC rhetoric emphasizes reform, infrastructure, and service delivery in a UAE-style modernization frame, positioning itself as the modernizing southern alternative.
  • model GPT +5.0 It presents itself as a modernizing administrative and security project for the south.
  • model Grok +6.0 The STC actively pursues economic modernization, infrastructure development, and international partnerships to transform the south, showing greater openness to institutional and social change.
• National Forces Alliance LY State & religion settled ↔ 6 pt +5.5
  • model Kimi +2.0 Civil state with Sharia as main inspiration but not religious state
  • model Claude +3.0 Secular-leaning, though it publicly affirmed respect for Islam and sharia to avoid the secularist label.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +4.0 It promoted a civil state and resisted Islamist dominance of law and politics.
  • model Gemini +5.0 Advocates for a 'civil state' with a separation between political governance and religious authority, while respecting Islamic heritage.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Advocates for a civil state with a clear separation of religious authority from law.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Liberal platform advocates a civil state with religion confined to the private sphere.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Strongly favors secular state and civil law.
  • model Grok +8.0 Explicitly advocates a civil secular state (dawla madaniyya) with religion confined to private sphere and no formal religious authority over legislation or governance.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Advocates for a civil secular state with a clear separation between religious authority and political governance.
• Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH West alignment settled ↔ 6 pt -5.0
  • model Gemini -8.0 Opposes the state's strategic alignment with Western powers, criticizing their backing of the Bahraini monarchy.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Critical of US policy in the region and aligned with anti-Western blocs.
  • model MiniMax -7.0 Strategic posture critical of US-Gulf security architecture and aligned with Iranian-led regional order.
  • model Qwen -6.0 It strongly opposes the Western military presence in Bahrain and Western backing of the ruling regime.
  • model Grok -5.0 Critiques Western support for the Bahraini regime's crackdowns and aligns with narratives critical of US influence in the Gulf, leaning toward non-aligned or anti-Western strategic posture amid Iran ties allegations.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Critical of US support for Bahraini monarchy and Israel
  • model Kimi -4.0 Anti-Western orientation due to Western support for Bahraini regime and alignment with resistance narrative.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -3.0 Critical of Western backing for the monarchy and viewed with Iran-leaning suspicion, leaving it mildly anti-Western.
  • model GPT -2.0 It is critical of Western-backed Bahraini security policy but not doctrinally anti-Western in strategic terms.
• Nour Party EG Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 6 pt -7.5
  • model Qwen -9.0 Supports a centralized state under Islamic governance.
  • model Grok -9.0 Salafi party in Egypt's unitary centralized context with no federalist or decentralizing platform.
  • model Gemini -9.0 Like other mainstream Egyptian actors, it adheres to a strictly centralized, unitary state structure.
  • model GPT -8.0 It favors a centralized Egyptian state and rejects regional power-sharing schemes.
  • model Gemma -8.0 Strongly favors a centralized state for stability and authority.
  • model MiniMax -7.0 Predominantly centralist but historically Salafi thought entertains pan-Islamic governance; not territorial federalist.
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 Supports unitary state; opposes federalism.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Salafi Islamist party favors strong central state under Islamic governance; no federalist tendencies.
  • model Claude -6.0 Centralist; no federal or power-sharing agenda.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Tagammu Party EG West alignment settled ↔ 5 pt -5.5
  • model Gemma -8.0 Strongly anti-imperialist and opposed to Western strategic alignment.
  • model Qwen -7.0 Anti-imperialist and historically non-aligned or Soviet-leaning.
  • model Gemini -7.0 Consistent with its Marxist and nationalist roots, it is highly critical of and hostile to Western strategic and military influence.
  • model MiniMax -7.0 Anti-Western in alignment; pan-Arab leftist tradition hostile to US/EU.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Strongly anti-Western; rejects American imperialism and calls for independence from Western influence.
  • model GPT -5.0 Its left-nationalist tradition is skeptical of US and Western strategic dominance.
  • model Grok -5.0 Anti-imperialist Nasserist tradition historically critical of Western dominance and aligned with non-aligned or adversarial foreign policy postures.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Anti-imperialist left; skeptical of Western strategic alignment.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude -3.0 Leftist non-aligned tradition wary of the West.
• United Torah Judaism IL West alignment settled ↔ 5 pt +5.0
  • model Kimi +2.0 Pragmatic participant in government; not strongly focused on Western alignment.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +2.0 Strategically aligned by default through the state.
  • model Claude +3.0 Pro-Western by coalition alignment, not ideology.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 UTJ is strategically pro-Western, valuing US-Israel alliance, despite rejecting Western liberal social values.
  • model GPT +5.0 UTJ participates in pro-US Israeli governments while focusing on domestic religious interests.
  • model Grok +5.0 Supports practical US alliance for Israel's security and Haredi community interests.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-Western for security.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Pro-Western strategically but completely rejects Western liberal social values.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Supports maintaining strong strategic and diplomatic alliances with Western nations.

  before · r1 gemini -1.0grok +5.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Yisrael Beiteinu IL Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 5 pt -6.5
  • model Grok -8.0 Secular nationalist prioritizes strong unitary Jewish state with separation from Arabs.
  • model Gemini -8.0 Favors a highly centralized unitary state and completely opposes sectarian or regional power-sharing.
  • model GPT -8.0 Yisrael Beiteinu favors a centralized nationalist state and territorial separation, not federalism.
  • model Kimi -7.0 Strongly centralist nationalist; opposes power-sharing threatening Jewish state.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Favors a strong unitary state.
  • model Claude -6.0 Nationalist centralism over power-sharing.
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Qwen -4.0 Advocates for a hardline, centralist approach to security and territorial control.
  • model DeepSeek -4.0 Centralist.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Yisrael Beiteinu supports a strong unitary Jewish state with significant population transfers; firmly centralist.

  before · r1 gemini -8.0grok -8.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• National Charter Party JO Regional stance settled ↔ 5 pt +5.5
  • model MiniMax +2.0 Moderate posture: supports Jordan's peace treaty and regional stability while remaining pro-Palestinian through diplomatic means.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Pro-Western regional stability
  • model Kimi +4.0 Supports stability and normalization camp, aligns with government regional policy
  • model Claude +5.0 Aligned with Jordan's normalization/stability posture and peace treaty.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +6.0 It reflects Jordan’s stability-oriented diplomacy and avoids resistance-bloc alignment.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Aligns with the regime's pro-stability foreign policy and acceptance of regional status quos.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Supports the state's diplomatic approach focused on regional stability and existing peace frameworks.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Supports regional stability and the official state line on normalization.
  • model Grok +7.0 Supports Jordan's stability-oriented foreign policy, peace with Israel, and engagement with Western and Gulf normalization trends.
• Ennahda TN Press freedom settled ↔ 5 pt +3.0
  • model Kimi +1.0 Mixed record on press freedom while in power; criticized for tolerating restrictions on critical media.
  • model DeepSeek +1.0 Ennahda has not systematically repressed press freedom but has not been a strong defender when in power.
  • model MiniMax +1.0 Mixed record in government; tolerated independent press broadly but some harassment of critical outlets and Nassim al-Hassi's arrest episode under their watch.
  • model Qwen +2.0 While in government, Ennahda tolerated harassment of critical journalists; now opposes current crackdown.
  • model GPT +3.0 During its governing period Tunisia's press sphere remained broadly pluralist, despite tensions and occasional pressure.
  • model Claude +3.0 Generally supportive of media pluralism during the transition and now itself targeted by state media controls.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Generally supported a free press during its time in government.
  • model Gemini +4.0 While in power, the party largely tolerated a pluralistic press, though occasional political friction occurred.
  • model Grok +6.0 Ennahda governments presided over significant liberalization of the media landscape compared to the prior dictatorship while still exhibiting partisan pressures on journalists.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• Tunisian Workers Party TN Social settled ↔ 5 pt +4.5
  • model Qwen +3.0 Progressive on social issues by regional standards but not libertarian; emphasizes collective rights.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Socially permissive on personal freedoms
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Secular communist ideology supports progressive social values against traditional authority.
  • model GPT +4.0 Its secular left politics are relatively permissive on personal freedoms, despite disciplined collectivist ideology.
  • model Claude +5.0 Secular leftist and socially permissive.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Supports social liberties from a leftist
  • model Gemini +6.0 The party advocates for progressive social freedoms and individual expression against traditional authorities.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Socially very progressive; supports LGBTQ+ rights and personal freedoms.
  • model Grok +8.0 As a Trotskyist-influenced Marxist party it champions social liberation, gender and sexual minority rights, and individual autonomy against both religious conservatism and bourgeois moralism.
• People's Movement TN West alignment settled ↔ 5 pt -5.0
  • model Grok -8.0 People's Movement maintains a classic third-worldist, anti-imperialist posture hostile to strategic alignment with Western powers.
  • model Gemini -8.0 Echâab strongly opposes Western influence and strategic alignment, viewing it as imperialism.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Generally anti-Western and non-aligned.
  • model MiniMax -7.0 Strongly anti-Western
  • model Claude -5.0 Anti-Western, anti-imperialist Nasserist posture.
  • model GPT -5.0 It is hostile to Western dominance and IMF-style alignment, favoring sovereign Arab-nationalist positioning.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Anti-Western due to anti-imperialist leftist stance.
  • model Qwen -5.0 Critical of Western imperialism; aligns more with Global South and anti-Western narratives.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi -3.0 Nasserist anti-imperialist tradition leans toward non-alignment and skepticism of Western blocs.
• Justice and Development Party MA State & religion settled ↔ 5 pt -6.5
  • model DeepSeek -8.0 Wants state guided by Islam; no secular separation.
  • model Qwen -8.0 Islamist party that seeks to increase the role of religious authority in state and law.
  • model Gemma -8.0 Advocates for a significant role of Islamic law and authority in the state.
  • model GPT -7.0 PJD supports a political role for Islamic values within Morocco’s state and law.
  • model Gemini -7.0 An Islamist party that believes Islamic principles should govern public legislation and legal codes.
  • model Kimi -6.0 PJD advocates for Islam as a guiding principle in legislation and public life, not secular separation.
  • model Claude -5.5 ⛓ grounded 2× rounds Islamist party favoring religious authority in public life.
  • model MiniMax -5.0 PJD is an Islamist party that explicitly seeks to align state and law with Islamic principles, though operating within a religious-monarchy framework.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok -3.0 Islamist party seeking to increase Islamic references and Sharia influence in legislation and governance while pragmatically accepting constitutional limits.
• Authenticity and Modernity Party MA Economic settled ↔ 5 pt +5.0
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Centrist on economics with some market-friendly rhetoric but no strong liberalization record.
  • model GPT +3.0 PAM favors pragmatic liberal and pro-investment policies with some social-democratic rhetoric.
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Grok +5.0 Advocates public-private partnerships and moderate market-oriented reforms within a social-democratic and reformist framework.
  • model Claude +5.0 Business-friendly, market-liberal economic orientation.
  • model Kimi +5.0 PAM advocates market-oriented reforms and private sector growth aligned with the New Development Model.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Advocates for liberal economic policies and market mechanisms.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly advocates for neoliberal economic policies and market liberalization.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Maintains a strongly liberal economic outlook that champions private enterprise, market mechanisms, and foreign investment.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 PAM is a self-described liberal party; its platform emphasizes private enterprise, investment, and market-friendly reforms.
• Socialist Union of Popular Forces MA Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 5 pt +4.0
  • model Claude +1.0 Socialist with Arab-nationalist roots, mildly pan-Arab leaning.
  • model DeepSeek +2.0 Leftist with some pan-Arab history but now more nation-state focused.
  • model Gemini +2.0 Possesses an Arab socialist heritage, but has largely shifted toward a Morocco-first social-democratic posture.
  • model Qwen +2.0 Historically rooted in pan-Arab socialism but now focuses more on Moroccan particularism.
  • model GPT +3.0 USFP retains Arab-left solidarity but is now mainly Moroccan social-democratic.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 USFP has clear pan-Arab and Third-Worldist socialist roots; historically engaged with pan-Arab and non-aligned movements.
  • model Kimi +5.0 USFP has historical leftist pan-Arab solidarity roots though it has moderated to social democratic focus.
  • model Grok +5.0 Roots in Arab nationalist and socialist traditions; retains clearer pan-Arab and progressive internationalist framing than other major Moroccan parties.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Maintains strong Pan-Arab and internationalist socialist solidarity.
• National Wisdom Movement IQ Regime stance settled ↔ 5 pt +6.5
  • model Kimi +3.0 Hakim accepts and works within Iraq's constitutional order; seeks reform from within
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 Accepts post-2003 constitutional order and participates in coalition governments.
  • model Claude +6.0 Committed participant in the post-2003 constitutional order.
  • model Grok +6.0 National Wisdom accepts and works within Iraq's post-2003 constitutional order, participating in governments and institutions it helped shape.
  • model GPT +7.0 It is a mainstream participant in the post-2003 Iraqi constitutional order.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Hikma is firmly within Iraq's post-2003 constitutional order, has held senior government positions, and accepts the federal republican system.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Al-Hikma is deeply committed to defending the post-2003 political order which it helped establish.
  • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly supports the foundational constitutional order of post-2003 Iraq.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Fully participates in and defends the post-2003 constitutional order and parliamentary system.
• National Liberation Front DZ Liberal democracy settled ↔ 5 pt -6.0
  • model Gemma -8.0 Record of consolidating executive power and limiting opposition.
  • model Gemini -8.0 The party operates as part of an authoritarian regime that limits executive checks and suppresses real opposition.
  • model Grok -8.0 Dominant party in authoritarian-leaning system; elections are real but competition heavily managed and opposition constrained.
  • model Claude -7.0 Entrenched single-party-derived rule with weak liberal-democratic checks.
  • model MiniMax -6.0 FLN was the backbone of single-party and post-1990 managed pluralism
  • model DeepSeek -6.0 FLN has overseen a managed democracy with weak checks on executive power and limited press freedom.
  • model GPT -6.0 Its governing record reflects dominant-party rule and weak liberal checks on executive power.
  • model Qwen -6.0 Maintains electoral facade but undermines judicial independence and opposition.
  • model Kimi -4.0 Pro-forma multi-partyism; defends executive-dominated system.
  • prior Author baseline -3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• El Insaf (Equity Party) MR West alignment settled ↔ 5 pt +5.0
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 Mauritania under El Insaf cooperates with Western counter-terrorism efforts and has ties to the US and France while maintaining non-aligned rhetoric.
  • model Claude +4.0 Strategic counterterrorism and migration cooperation with the US and EU while balancing other partners.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Maintains strategic security and diplomatic cooperation with Western nations particularly France and the US.
  • model Kimi +5.0 El Insaf maintains strategic cooperation with Western partners on security and development while asserting independence.
  • model GPT +5.0 It favors pragmatic security and development cooperation with Western partners.
  • model Gemini +6.0 The party maintains strong strategic, security, and counter-terrorism partnerships with the United States and European Union nations.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Mauritania is a key Western security partner in the Sahel with active US
  • model Grok +7.0 Strategic counterterrorism cooperation EU and US partnerships and investment orientation place the party clearly in the pro-Western strategic camp.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly supports the strategic security and military partnerships with the US and EU.
• Union of Forces of Progress MR State & religion settled ↔ 5 pt +5.0
  • model Kimi +3.0 The coalition favors reducing religious authority in state and law, advocating for more secular governance principles.
  • model Gemini +3.0 While respecting Islam, UFP leans toward a more pluralistic public space and opposes the use of religious authority for political control.
  • model Grok +4.0 Democratic socialist and civic nationalist roots favor secular civic equality and reduced religious authority in law and public institutions.
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +5.0 Its left-progressive orientation favors more secular politics than Islamist or ruling conservative parties.
  • model Claude +5.0 Secular party favoring separation of religion from state and law.
  • model Qwen +6.0 Supports a civil secular state where religion is separated from legislative and governmental institutions.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly advocates for the separation of religion and state.
  • model DeepSeek +7.0 UFP is secularist advocating for separation of religion from state and limiting Sharia's role in law.
  • model MiniMax +8.0 The UFP is one of Mauritania's most strongly secularist parties
• Free Egyptians Party EG Social settled ↔ 5 pt +5.5
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model GPT +3.0 It is secular and comparatively liberal, though cautious within Egyptian social norms.
  • model Gemma +4.0 Generally permissive on social issues compared to religious parties.
  • model Claude +4.0 Secular and comparatively permissive on lifestyle questions.
  • model Gemini +5.0 It advocates for a secular public sphere and individual social freedoms within a secular national framework.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Liberal party advocating personal freedoms, equality without discrimination based on religion or gender.
  • model MiniMax +7.0 Secular
  • model DeepSeek +7.0 Very socially liberal; champions individual expression and lifestyle freedoms.
  • model Grok +7.0 Secular liberal platform favors individual expression, personal freedoms, and reduced traditional moral authority constraints.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Permissive on social and moral liberties.
• Ra'am (United Arab List) IL Palestinian question settled ↔ 4 pt +7.5
  • model Grok +5.0 Supports Palestinian rights with pragmatic approach to solutions.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Supports Palestinian rights but pragmatic; joined Bennett government focusing on Arab community issues.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-Palestinian but pragmatic within Israel.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Supports Palestinian rights but focuses pragmatically on Arab citizens of Israel.
  • model GPT +8.0 Ra’am supports Palestinian rights but prioritizes pragmatic gains for Arab citizens of Israel.
  • model Claude +8.0 Supports Palestinian rights though pursued pragmatically.
  • model Gemma +9.0 Strongly supports Palestinian rights.
  • model MiniMax +9.0 Ra'am strongly supports Palestinian rights and statehood, though it has moderated to participate in Israeli coalitions.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Supports the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

  before · r1 grok +7.0gemini +7.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• Shas IL West alignment settled ↔ 4 pt +5.5
  • model Kimi +3.0 Pragmatic; not strongly focused on Western alignment but participates in pro-Western governments.
  • model Gemma +3.0 Strategically aligned through the broader Israeli state.
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +4.0 Pro-Western by coalition alignment rather than ideology.
  • model MiniMax +5.0 Shas is strategically pro-Western, valuing US-Israel relationship and Israel-Western alignment.
  • model Grok +6.0 Supports Western alliance for Israel's security and religious status quo protection.
  • model GPT +6.0 Shas participates in pro-US Israeli governments without making Western alignment its ideology.
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pro-Western for security.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Pro-Western strategically but rejects Western liberal social values.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Supports Israel's strategic and security alliance with Western nations.

  before · r1 gemini +0.0grok +7.0 no definitions — excluded from the median

• National Charter Party JO West alignment settled ↔ 4 pt +6.5
  • model DeepSeek +4.0 Pro-Western strategic alignment
  • prior Author baseline +5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +5.0 Pro-Western strategically, aligns with Jordanian government US partnership
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Pro-Western strategically; supportive of US-Jordan partnership and Western aid.
  • model Claude +6.0 Aligned with Jordan's close strategic partnership with the US and West.
  • model GPT +7.0 It tracks Jordan’s pro-Western security and diplomatic orientation.
  • model Grok +7.0 Supports Jordan's longstanding strategic alliance with the United States and Western partners for security and aid.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Strongly favors Jordan's strategic, diplomatic, and military alliance with Western nations.
  • model Gemma +8.0 Strongly supports strategic alignment with Western powers.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Strongly supports Jordan's strategic alliance with the United States and Western powers.
• Jordanian Communist Party JO Traditionalism vs modernization settled ↔ 4 pt +6.5
  • prior Author baseline +4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Kimi +4.0 Supports modernization of institutions and some social reform, though within socialist framework
  • model GPT +6.0 It supports secular modernization, women’s rights, and institutional reform.
  • model Claude +6.0 Secular-progressive modernizing agenda on rights and institutions.
  • model MiniMax +6.0 Modernizing on social and institutional reform, women's rights, and labor law.
  • model DeepSeek +7.0 Pro-modernization
  • model Gemma +8.0 Favors secular modernization and progressive social reform.
  • model Grok +8.0 Embraces scientific progress, industrialization, and radical social modernization to overcome traditional and 'feudal' structures.
  • model Gemini +8.0 Champions comprehensive social, institutional, and scientific modernization over traditionalism.
  • model Qwen +8.0 Strongly supports social progress, women's rights, and secular institutional reform.
• Sairoon Alliance IQ State & religion settled ↔ 4 pt -5.5
  • model Gemma -7.0 Favors the primacy of religious authority in state and law.
  • model Grok -7.0 Sairoon advocates a prominent role for Islamic law and Shia religious authority in Iraqi state institutions and personal status legislation.
  • model Gemini -7.0 The movement seeks a political system guided by Islamic religious values and clerical authority.
  • model GPT -7.0 It favors Islamic moral authority in public life rather than secular separation.
  • model Claude -6.0 Clerical Shia movement favoring religious authority.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Favors a strong role for Islam in state and society
  • model Kimi -5.0 Sadr supports strong Shia Islamic influence in state and law; opposes secular separation
  • model Qwen -4.0 Advocates for a state where Shia Islamic principles heavily influence legislation and public life.
  • prior Author baseline -4.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax -3.0 Sadr's movement blends religious identity with Iraqi nationalism; it does not explicitly seek a religious state but maintains a strong clerical presence.
• Movement of Society for Peace DZ Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 4 pt +4.5
  • model Qwen +2.0 Some pan-Arab sentiment but primarily Islamist and Algerian-focused.
  • prior Author baseline +2.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Claude +3.0 Pan-Islamic solidarity and anti-normalization, moderate pan-Arab tilt.
  • model DeepSeek +3.0 MSP is Islamist and moderately pan-Islamic
  • model MiniMax +4.0 MSP leans pan-Islamist with strong pan-Arab framing.
  • model Gemini +5.0 The MSP strongly emphasizes pan-Arab and pan-Islamic solidarity over a purely particularist nation-state frame.
  • model GPT +5.0 Its Muslim Brotherhood roots give it a strong Arab-Islamic solidarity orientation.
  • model Grok +5.0 Emphasizes Arab-Islamic solidarity and civilizational project transcending narrow nationalism.
  • model Gemma +6.0 Frames politics around Islamic and Arab solidarity.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Pan-Arab Islamist solidarity; Brotherhood transnationalism.
• Yemeni Socialist Party YE Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 4 pt +5.0
  • prior Author baseline +3.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model MiniMax +3.0 YSP, heir to the PDRY, has historically defended a unitary Yemen but is sympathetic to regional autonomy arrangements; current platform leans federalist-leaning-centrist.
  • model Kimi +3.0 YSP historically supported a unified state but now advocates for southern rights and some decentralization to address marginalization.
  • model Qwen +4.0 Historically centralized, but now often supports federalism or southern rights as a marginalized opposition.
  • model Grok +5.0 As a southern-based party with PDRY roots, the YSP supports federal arrangements or enhanced southern autonomy within a united Yemen rather than strict centralism.
  • model Claude +5.0 Southern-rooted party supporting federalism and southern rights.
  • model DeepSeek +5.0 YSP supports a federal or confederal Yemen to protect southern rights after unification disappointment.
  • model GPT +6.0 It has generally favored decentralization and southern protections within post-unity politics.
  • model Gemma +7.0 They historically support a decentralized or federal state to protect southern interests.
  • model Gemini +7.0 The YSP strongly advocates for a federal state structure as the most viable mechanism to resolve the southern question and decentralize power.
• Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH Liberal democracy settled ↔ 4 pt +5.5
  • model Claude +4.0 Demanded an elected government and constitutional monarchy, though its clerical Shia-Islamist base tempers liberal-democratic commitment.
  • model MiniMax +4.0 Pushed for an elected government
  • model Kimi +5.0 Advocates for constitutional reform and democratic participation, though with religious constraints.
  • model GPT +5.0 It called for elected government, constitutional reform, and rights, though its Islamist base limits full liberal confidence.
  • model Grok +5.0 Strongly advocates for a genuine constitutional monarchy with separation of powers, elected government, independent institutions, and rule of law, though framed within an Islamic democratic model that includes religious oversight on certain laws.
  • prior Author baseline +6.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemini +7.0 Commits to a liberal-democratic framework with an empowered elected parliament and independent courts to limit executive power.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Long-term advocate for a genuine constitutional monarchy with independent courts.
  • model Qwen +7.0 It has long demanded a fully elected parliament with genuine legislative power and a constitutional monarchy.
  • model DeepSeek +8.0 Strongly committed to democratic reforms including independent judiciary and minority rights.
• New Wafd Party EG Centralism vs federalism settled ↔ 4 pt -6.5
  • model MiniMax -9.0 Wafd tradition is strongly centralist Egyptian nationalist.
  • model Gemini -9.0 It maintains the historic liberal nationalist commitment to a highly centralized, unitary Egyptian state.
  • model Grok -8.0 Historic liberal-nationalist party accepts Egypt's unitary centralized state without federalist proposals.
  • model Qwen -8.0 Historically committed to a unified Egyptian state.
  • model Gemma -7.0 Consistent with historical Wafdist support for a unitary state.
  • model GPT -6.0 It historically supports a unified Egyptian nation-state with limited decentralization.
  • model Claude -6.0 Centralist Egyptian nationalist tradition.
  • model Kimi -6.0 Nationalist liberal party in Egypt's centralist tradition; no indication of supporting federalist power-sharing.
  • model DeepSeek -5.0 Supports unitary state; traditional centralist party.
  • prior Author baseline -5.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
• People's Movement TN Pan-Arab vs particularist settled ↔ 3 pt +7.5
  • model DeepSeek +6.0 Pan-Arabist left-wing party.
  • model Kimi +6.0 Nasserist and Arab nationalist heritage emphasizes pan-Arab solidarity.
  • prior Author baseline +7.0 Author baseline — prior hand-coding against the rubric; to be upgraded to a document-grounded Claude pass per cell.
  • model Gemma +7.0 Strongly frames its politics around Pan-Arab solidarity.
  • model Qwen +7.0 Embraces pan-Arab and anti-imperialist discourse in line with Nasserist roots.
  • model Grok +8.0 The party's core identity is pan-Arab nationalist with explicit commitment to Arab unity, anti-imperialist solidarity, and regional liberation causes.
  • model Gemini +9.0 Echâab is an explicitly Nasserist party dedicated to pan-Arab solidarity and unity.
  • model Claude +9.0 Explicitly Nasserist Arab-nationalist party.
  • model MiniMax +9.0 Strongly pan-Arab
  • model GPT +9.0 It is explicitly Arab nationalist and rooted in pan-Arab ideological currents.