Tayyar.

All axes · issue

Centralism vs federalism

المركزية مقابل الفيدرالية

Position on state structure: favoring a strong unitary central state versus power-sharing among regions, sects, or ethnic groups. Salient in MENA where Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, and Syria have consociational or federal frames while Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco are strongly centralist. Kurdish parties and Yemeni southern movements sit at the federalist extreme.

Scoring rubric

How positions are calibrated on this axis. The conventions guide the scorer; anchored examples show how known MENA actors land at -10, -5, 0, +5, +10.

Score the actor on state structure: centralism vs federalism. Negative: strong unitary state, central authority over regional / sectarian / ethnic divisions. Positive: power-sharing among regions, sects, ethnic groups, or full federal / secessionist position. Iraqi consociational system (since 2005), Lebanese confessional system, Sudanese federalism all sit on the positive side; Egyptian, Tunisian, Algerian centralism on the negative.

  • -10
    Maximal centralism
    Baath Party Syria (historical), Mostaqbal Watan Egypt
  • -7
    Strong centralism
    FLN Algeria, RND, Likud, FJP Egypt
  • -3
    Moderate centralism with some autonomy
    Most Maghreb ruling parties
  • +0
    Pragmatic, no strong position
    Many centrist parties
  • +5
    Pro-consociational power-sharing
    Hezbollah, Lebanese Forces, Amal
  • +8
    Strong federalism / autonomy
    STC Yemen (southern secession)
  • +10
    Full federal / secessionist
    KDP, PUK (Kurdish federalism)
Parties scored
78
Mean
-3.56
Median
-5.00
Std dev
4.46
Range
-9.0 → 9.5

Ranking

All parties scored on this axis, sorted from most federalist to most centralist.

centralist ← → federalist

-10-5+0+5+10
  1. 1 Kurdistan Democratic Party IQ
    +9.5
  2. 2 Southern Transitional Council YE
    +9.0
  3. 3 Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IQ
    +9.0
  4. 4 Sudanese Communist Party SD
    +5.5
  5. 5 Yemeni Socialist Party YE
    +5.0
  6. 6 Lebanese Forces LB
    +4.0
  7. 7 Socialist Forces Front DZ
    +3.0
  8. 8 Balad IL
    +3.0
  9. 9 National Umma Party SD
    +3.0
  10. 10 Ta'al IL
    +2.5
  11. 11 Kataeb Party LB
    +2.5
  12. 12 Democratic Unionist Party SD
    +2.0
  13. 13 Syrian National Coalition SY
    +1.0
  14. 14 National Wisdom Movement IQ
    +1.0
  15. 15 Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society BH
    +1.0
  16. 16 Hadash IL
    +1.0
  17. 17 Ra'am (United Arab List) IL
    +1.0
  18. 18 Northern Islamic Movement IL
    +0.5
  19. 19 Free Patriotic Movement LB
    -0.5
  20. 20 Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) YE
    -1.0
  21. 21 Progressive Socialist Party LB
    -1.0
  22. 22 National Forces Alliance LY
    -2.5
  23. 23 Union of Forces of Progress MR
    -2.5
  24. 24 The Democrats IL
    -3.0
  25. 25 Amal Movement LB
    -3.5
  26. 26 Hezbollah LB
    -3.5
  27. 27 United Torah Judaism IL
    -3.5
  28. 28 Shas IL
    -4.0
  29. 29 Socialist Union of Popular Forces MA
    -4.0
  30. 30 Israeli Labor Party IL
    -4.0
  31. 31 Islamic Action Front JO
    -4.0
  32. 32 Jordanian Communist Party JO
    -4.0
  33. 33 Yesh Atid IL
    -4.0
  34. 34 Justice and Construction Party LY
    -4.5
  35. 35 National Unity IL
    -5.0
  36. 36 Workers' Party DZ
    -5.0
  37. 37 Hamas PS
    -5.0
  38. 38 Reform Party JO
    -5.0
  39. 39 Sairoon Alliance IQ
    -5.0
  40. 40 General People's Congress YE
    -5.0
  41. 41 PFLP PS
    -5.0
  42. 42 Authenticity and Modernity Party MA
    -5.5
  43. 43 National Rally for Reform and Development (Tewassoul) MR
    -5.5
  44. 44 Palestinian Islamic Jihad PS
    -5.5
  45. 45 New Hope IL
    -6.0
  46. 46 Fatah PS
    -6.0
  47. 47 Movement of Society for Peace DZ
    -6.0
  48. 48 Istiqlal Party MA
    -6.0
  49. 49 Justice and Development Party MA
    -6.0
  50. 50 National Rally of Independents MA
    -6.0
  51. 51 Al-Menbar Islamic Society BH
    -6.0
  52. 52 New Wafd Party EG
    -6.5
  53. 53 Yisrael Beiteinu IL
    -6.5
  54. 54 Freedom and Justice Party EG
    -6.5
  55. 55 Islamic Asalah Society BH
    -6.5
  56. 56 National Charter Party JO
    -6.5
  57. 57 Egyptian Social Democratic Party EG
    -6.5
  58. 58 Noam IL
    -7.0
  59. 59 Ennahda TN
    -7.0
  60. 60 Free Egyptians Party EG
    -7.0
  61. 61 Tunisian Workers Party TN
    -7.0
  62. 62 People's Movement TN
    -7.0
  63. 63 Ansar Allah (Houthis) YE
    -7.0
  64. 64 El Insaf (Equity Party) MR
    -7.0
  65. 65 Islamic Salvation Front DZ
    -7.0
  66. 66 Likud IL
    -7.0
  67. 67 Long Live Tunisia TN
    -7.0
  68. 68 Tagammu Party EG
    -7.0
  69. 69 State of Law Coalition IQ
    -7.5
  70. 70 Nour Party EG
    -7.5
  71. 71 Religious Zionism Party IL
    -8.0
  72. 72 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham SY
    -8.0
  73. 73 Democratic National Rally DZ
    -8.0
  74. 74 Free Destourian Party TN
    -8.0
  75. 75 Otzma Yehudit IL
    -8.5
  76. 76 Ba'ath Party (Syria) SY
    -9.0
  77. 77 National Liberation Front DZ
    -9.0
  78. 78 Mostaqbal Watan EG
    -9.0

Score distribution

Histogram of scores across all 78 parties. Mean -3.56, median -5.00, σ 4.46. Multi-modal distributions point to genuine cleavages on this axis; unimodal narrow ones to consensus.

-9: 3 parties -8: 5 parties -7: 13 parties 13 -6: 13 parties 13 -5: 10 parties 10 -4: 7 parties 7 -3: 4 parties -2: 2 parties -1: 2 parties +0: 1 party +1: 6 parties +2: 1 party +3: 5 parties +4: 1 party +5: 1 party +6: 1 party +9: 2 parties +10: 1 party −10 0 +10

centralist federalist

By country

Mean score per country.

  • Sudan 3 parties
    +3.50
  • Iraq 5 parties
    +1.40
  • Yemen 5 parties
    +0.20
  • Lebanon 6 parties
    -0.33
  • Israel 17 parties
    -3.44
  • Libya 2 parties
    -3.50
  • Bahrain 3 parties
    -3.83
  • Jordan 4 parties
    -4.88
  • Mauritania 3 parties
    -5.00
  • Algeria 6 parties
    -5.33
  • Syria 3 parties
    -5.33
  • Palestine 4 parties
    -5.38
  • Morocco 5 parties
    -5.50
  • Egypt 7 parties
    -7.14
  • Tunisia 5 parties
    -7.20

Cross-axis correlations

How parties' scores on this axis covary with their scores on each other axis. Pearson r runs from −1 (perfect inverse) to +1 (perfect identity); 0 means independent. Computed across all parties scored on both axes (n shown per row). Strong correlations expose which axes are really measuring the same cleavage in the data; near-zero values are the ones with the most additional explanatory power.

Other axes

Pick any axis in the table above, or combine two on the compass.