research study

How would you score them?

We're testing how people from different backgrounds read the politics of the Middle East and North Africa — and comparing that to how AI models read it. Below are 25 political actors, each on one question. Score each from your own knowledge, on a −10 to +10 scale. There are no right answers; we want your read. It takes about 10–15 minutes, and you can skip any actor you don't know.

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The actors

0 / 25 scored
1 Ba'ath Party (Syria) Sectarian power-sharing

Position on confessional or sectarian political organisation: Lebanese-style consociational quotas, Iraqi muhasasa, Syrian Alawite-network governance, vs post-sectarian / civic-state framings. Relevant primarily to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Bahrain; less so to Egypt or Saudi Arabia where the question does not structurally arise.

−10 · Consociational / quota systemPost-sectarian / civic state · +10
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2 Kurdistan Democratic Party Traditionalism vs modernization

Position on social and institutional modernization versus tradition. Captures stance on issues like womens rights, religious authority in public life, reform of family law, openness to technological and economic transformation. Distinct from the secular-religious axis: an actor can be religious and modernizing (Vision 2030) or secular and traditionalist (state-corporatist nationalism).

−10 · traditionalistmodernizing · +10
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3 Free Egyptians Party Regime stance

Stance toward the state's foundational constitutional order — for Israel the Zionist-democratic state; for republics and monarchies the existing political order. Pro-regime (+) accepts and defends that order; anti-regime (−) rejects or seeks to overturn it. This measures stance toward the FOUNDATIONAL ORDER, not the incumbent government: an opposition party loyal to the constitutional order still scores positive.

−10 · anti-regimepro-regime · +10
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4 Union of Forces of Progress Pan-Arab vs particularist

Degree to which the actor frames its politics around pan-Arab solidarity (the Nasserist, Baathist, and contemporary anti-normalization tradition) versus country- or community-specific particularism (sectarian, ethnic, monarchic, or nation-state-first frames). One of the major regional cleavages.

−10 · particularistpan-Arab · +10
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5 Yesh Atid Civil liberties

Speech, protest, dissent, association, press freedom — expand and protect (positive) vs. restrict (negative).

−10 · RestrictExpand · +10
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6 Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society Pan-Arab vs particularist

Degree to which the actor frames its politics around pan-Arab solidarity (the Nasserist, Baathist, and contemporary anti-normalization tradition) versus country- or community-specific particularism (sectarian, ethnic, monarchic, or nation-state-first frames). One of the major regional cleavages.

−10 · particularistpan-Arab · +10
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7 Ennahda Regime stance

Stance toward the state's foundational constitutional order — for Israel the Zionist-democratic state; for republics and monarchies the existing political order. Pro-regime (+) accepts and defends that order; anti-regime (−) rejects or seeks to overturn it. This measures stance toward the FOUNDATIONAL ORDER, not the incumbent government: an opposition party loyal to the constitutional order still scores positive.

−10 · anti-regimepro-regime · +10
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8 Palestinian Islamic Jihad Regional stance

Posture toward the regional order: the "Axis of Resistance" (Iran–Hezbollah–Hamas–Houthis, anti-normalization, armed struggle) at the negative pole vs the normalization / stability camp (Abraham Accords, Gulf–Israel détente, negotiated settlement) at the positive pole. Pro-Palestinian sympathy ALONE does not make an actor "resistance" — score toward resistance (−) only for alignment with armed-resistance or anti-normalization politics; an actor that pursues its regional aims THROUGH negotiation and normalization leans positive (+).

−10 · Resistance/maximalistStability/normalization · +10
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9 Hezbollah Centralism vs federalism

Position on state structure: favoring a strong unitary central state versus power-sharing among regions, sects, or ethnic groups. Salient in MENA where Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, and Syria have consociational or federal frames while Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco are strongly centralist. Kurdish parties and Yemeni southern movements sit at the federalist extreme.

−10 · centralistfederalist · +10
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10 Sairoon Alliance Economic

Degree to which the actor favors market mechanisms (positive) vs. state allocation (negative).

−10 · StatistMarket · +10
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11 Ba'ath Party (Syria) Liberal democracy

Commitment to LIBERAL democracy — independent courts, free press, opposition and minority rights, limits on executive power. NOT mere electoral participation: a party that contests elections but works to weaken the judiciary, entrench ethnic or religious supremacy, or curb minority and dissident rights scores LOW (−). Strong commitment to liberal-democratic checks scores HIGH (+).

−10 · Weak/antiStrong commitment · +10
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12 Sudanese Communist Party Centralism vs federalism

Position on state structure: favoring a strong unitary central state versus power-sharing among regions, sects, or ethnic groups. Salient in MENA where Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, and Syria have consociational or federal frames while Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco are strongly centralist. Kurdish parties and Yemeni southern movements sit at the federalist extreme.

−10 · centralistfederalist · +10
drag to score
13 Sairoon Alliance Civil liberties

Speech, protest, dissent, association, press freedom — expand and protect (positive) vs. restrict (negative).

−10 · RestrictExpand · +10
drag to score

Position on women's rights, gender roles in public life, family law (personal status, divorce, custody, inheritance), and political representation. Distinct from the broader modernization axis: a party can be tech-modernizing and gender-conservative.

−10 · Patriarchal traditionalismGender equality · +10
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Separation of religion from state and law (positive) vs. religious authority in state and law (negative).

−10 · Religious stateSecular state · +10
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16 People's Movement Liberal democracy

Commitment to LIBERAL democracy — independent courts, free press, opposition and minority rights, limits on executive power. NOT mere electoral participation: a party that contests elections but works to weaken the judiciary, entrench ethnic or religious supremacy, or curb minority and dissident rights scores LOW (−). Strong commitment to liberal-democratic checks scores HIGH (+).

−10 · Weak/antiStrong commitment · +10
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Personal and moral social freedom — lifestyle, LGBTQ+ rights, individual expression, religion-in-private — permissive (+) vs traditional collective moral authority (−). This axis is about SOCIAL / MORAL liberty, NOT security policy, nationalism, or economics: a party can be nationalist-hawkish yet socially permissive (secular nationalists), or dovish yet socially conservative.

−10 · AuthorityLibertarian · +10
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18 Nour Party Regional stance

Posture toward the regional order: the "Axis of Resistance" (Iran–Hezbollah–Hamas–Houthis, anti-normalization, armed struggle) at the negative pole vs the normalization / stability camp (Abraham Accords, Gulf–Israel détente, negotiated settlement) at the positive pole. Pro-Palestinian sympathy ALONE does not make an actor "resistance" — score toward resistance (−) only for alignment with armed-resistance or anti-normalization politics; an actor that pursues its regional aims THROUGH negotiation and normalization leans positive (+).

−10 · Resistance/maximalistStability/normalization · +10
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Degree to which the actor favors market mechanisms (positive) vs. state allocation (negative).

−10 · StatistMarket · +10
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20 Hamas Press freedom

Position on journalism, broadcast media, and digital information access. Distinct from broader civil liberties: a regime can selectively restrict press while allowing other forms of speech (or vice versa). Captures both legal frameworks (defamation law, licensing, internet shutdowns) and political enforcement.

−10 · State-controlled pressFree press · +10
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21 Sudanese Communist Party Liberal democracy

Commitment to LIBERAL democracy — independent courts, free press, opposition and minority rights, limits on executive power. NOT mere electoral participation: a party that contests elections but works to weaken the judiciary, entrench ethnic or religious supremacy, or curb minority and dissident rights scores LOW (−). Strong commitment to liberal-democratic checks scores HIGH (+).

−10 · Weak/antiStrong commitment · +10
drag to score
22 Hezbollah Traditionalism vs modernization

Position on social and institutional modernization versus tradition. Captures stance on issues like womens rights, religious authority in public life, reform of family law, openness to technological and economic transformation. Distinct from the secular-religious axis: an actor can be religious and modernizing (Vision 2030) or secular and traditionalist (state-corporatist nationalism).

−10 · traditionalistmodernizing · +10
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23 Long Live Tunisia West alignment

STRATEGIC and security alignment with Western (US/EU) blocs — military cooperation, diplomatic partnership, trade. This is geopolitical orientation, NOT cultural affinity for liberal Western values: a religious-nationalist party can be strongly pro-Western strategically (wants US arms and backing) while rejecting Western liberal social values. Score the strategic posture. Pro-Western (+), anti-Western or hostile-nonaligned (−).

−10 · Anti-WesternPro-Western · +10
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24 Istiqlal Party Regional stance

Posture toward the regional order: the "Axis of Resistance" (Iran–Hezbollah–Hamas–Houthis, anti-normalization, armed struggle) at the negative pole vs the normalization / stability camp (Abraham Accords, Gulf–Israel détente, negotiated settlement) at the positive pole. Pro-Palestinian sympathy ALONE does not make an actor "resistance" — score toward resistance (−) only for alignment with armed-resistance or anti-normalization politics; an actor that pursues its regional aims THROUGH negotiation and normalization leans positive (+).

−10 · Resistance/maximalistStability/normalization · +10
drag to score

Separation of religion from state and law (positive) vs. religious authority in state and law (negative).

−10 · Religious stateSecular state · +10
drag to score

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