How the government formed
Israeli election simulator
The Knesset Machine
Four real elections and a sandbox. Drag the vote, watch 120 seats fall, and try to build 61. Positions are live from Tayyar.
—largest party
0right + religious
0the rest
Load a scenario
The ballot
← Arab · leftreligious right →
61
0 / 120 in your coalition
The President consults
Who gets the mandate?
—formateur
0 / 61committed seats
42 mandate days left
Around the table
Portfolio demands, red lines, and the 28 + 14-day clock are a stylized, illustrative model of how the blocs bargain, not the official positions of any party or the President.
Probabilistic forecast · beta
If the election were today
Set each list’s expected vote, then run thousands of elections. Each is shaken by three correlated forces, a national left-right swing, a religious-secular swing, and Arab turnout, with each list’s exposure read from its own Tayyar positions, plus its own noise. For every simulated Knesset the machine asks who could really form 61 under the real coalition red lines, and how often each list is the one that decides.
✓ Calibrated on 63 final-week polls (2019–2022) · the real result landed in its 80% band 85% of the time
0 elections simulated
Who can actually form a government?
Kingmakers · how often each list is decisive to a majority
Seats per list (median, with the 5th–95th-percentile range)
Polling now · the 6-poll picture
What the surveys say
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 53 and the non-Arab opposition at 56, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
| Party | Maariv Lazar Research | N12 Midgam | Channel 14 Filber | i24NEWS Direct Polls | Zman Israel Tatika Research & Media | Israel Hayom Kantar | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 22 | 22 | 33 | 30 | 24 | 24 | 25.8 |
| Yashar! | 20 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| Beyachad | 21 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 19 | 17.7 |
| The Democrats | 10 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9.7 |
| Shas | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.2 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8.7 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.7 |
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Hadash-Taʿal | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5.8 |
| Raʿam | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4.7 |
| Religious Zionism | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | · | 4 | 3.5 |
| Coalition | 50 | 51 | 63 | 60 | 50 | 53 | |
| Opposition | 60 | 59 | 46 | 48 | 60 | 57 | |
| — of which Arab | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (7/6) · The Reservists (7/6) · Balad (6/6) · Religious Zionism (1/6)
Since the April merger Likud 28→25 · Beyachad 25→19 · Yashar! 13→19
Seeded from each outlet’s published seat projection. Tap to load a poll into the sandbox and build coalitions on it. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.